NEWS: Climate Change To Cyclone Correlation: Just Hot Air?

Dr John McBride of Australia's Bureau of Meteorology says that the evidence linking global warming to severe storms in the past two years is inconclusive or lacking. He also said that the current argument that climate change is causing warmer seas which leads to bigger tropical cyclones is too simplistic.



While the above report suggest that there is no hard link between climate change and the intensity of tropical storms, it did indicate that there is strong evidence that sea levels are rising. This would mean that the storms would still cause a lot of damage due to higher storm surges from the sea.

Climate change is an issue that is real. However, we humans have only begun recording accurate measurements for the past hundred years or so. That is just a blip in the Earth's long history.

As such, there is no conclusive evidence that the change is our fault due to development and industry. It could just be a natural part of the cyclic nature of the Earth's weather system. But that is not to say we should continue polluting and damaging this planet we all share.

Related News Links:
www.abc.net.au
news.bbc.co.uk

I do agree that this is part of a natural cycle, although as I have always believed dumping chemicals into the seas and greenhouse gases into the Earth's atmosphere is certainly not helping.

Even if every car in the world stopped working, if we stopped releasing chemicals into the seas and gases into the atmosphere, the current global wamring cycle, which will cool other regions of the Earth, will continue for a long time until the Earth finds a balance.

Now, these changes are going to continue to affect us and they will get worse. What we need to do is make long term preparations, as I said before Katrina and the other hurricanes hit south Florida.

We need to have contigency plans for evacuating millions of people from coastal areas, or any other area hit by natural disasters, for any possible hurricane or other extreme weather disaster.

We need to stop the political bickering and start working together. We need to find anwsers together more than pointing fingers and trying to blame everyone else for our own fault of not being able to "work together".



[edit on 21-2-2006 by Muaddib]

Muaddib...
Natural cycles or man made changes?
I think the biggest issue, wont be weather changes... or storm surge rises...
those are local/regional issues that can be delt with preparations... as you said...

But what happens when the decreased salinity from melting glaciers, kills of marine algae colonies... that provide up to 80% of our oxygen...

well... at that point... unless we have an oygen maker... then we die...
simple... and our decomposing bodies become another resevoir of carbon...

Scientists need to be engineering a new form of algae that requires less salinity... it can be done... but is it?

if they dont... then we may all be dead, before they can even start trying...

As muaddib said, we need to prepare... but dont forget your oxygen maker... (several styles use water and electrolysis)

Ohhh, and buy lots of masking tape (this advertisment by citizens for Dick Cheney)

[edit on 21-2-2006 by LazarusTheLong]

Good points, Laz. I myself was not aware of the importance of marine algae until you mentioned it and I did a search. Found this:

Ecology.com: The most important organism

It is estimated that between 70% and 80% of the oxygen in the atmosphere is produced by marine plants . Nearly all marine plants are single celled, photosynthetic algae. Yup, that's right, good ol' scum on the pond…green gak…..slip slimein' away. Even marine seaweed is many times colonial algae. They are a bunch of single cells trying to look like a big plant (see seaweed photo), but they are really individuals.

We need marine algae a whole lot more than they need us. Think about it….70% to 80% of all the oxygen we breathe comes from algae! Without them we would really be sucking wind, but not for long! At this point you may be saying, "Yo! What about the trees and other land plants?" Well, trees and other land plants are very important, no doubt about it. But for pure survival, we couldn't make it without algae.

A lot more links, just gotta google "marine algae and planetary oxygen".

muadibb
I do agree that this is part of a natural cycle,

Why? The evidence suggests that it is not part of a natural cycle. The pattern doesn't fit any of the natural cycles. McBride isn't saying that global warming isn't occuring and isn't man-made, he is saying its far too simplistic to say 'global warming made hurrican katrina and the like'.

What we need to do is make long term preparations, as I said before Katrina and the other hurricanes hit south Florida.

Indeed, this would be sensible. Irrespective of what the cause of the trend is, the trend does seem to be there.

the evidence your refering to is not really significant because the time frame, a couple hundred years at most is hardly evidence for cycles that this earth experiences. maybe small cycles like seasons lol but there really isnt enough evidence to show that theres any real broken cycle. how long have they been measuring sea levels? temperature? accurately?

not to mention there are also a good amount of studies saying its not occuring, there are also some who say that this is the step to the next ice age, a warm winter followed by a slow drop in average temperatures. could be pretty soon too. we really dont know because we cant tell. some studies say that its the pennisula thats melting, the rest of the pole glaciers are growing and expanding, but really what evidence do we have that really even shows the cycles in the first place?

While I agree that the model of global warming is a bit too simplistic and that many complex interactions are contributing to it...the vast majority of the scientific consenus is that it is real and that human behaviour has definately contributed to it fi not caused it. Whenever a "scientist" comes out against it I have to wonder what their connection to Exxon is. Especially considering there is a long track record of Exxon, not just opposing the idea, but activily conducting a misinformation campagin to muddy the waters.

grover, the scientist in the article isn't opposing the idea of climate change, he's just saying that the current model that links big storms like Katrina or Wilma last year to global warming is too simplistic. He did mention sea-levels are rising, and there can only be two reasons for that -- melting icecaps and expanded water volume -- both due to warming.

very well I misunderstood what he was saying HOWEVER...hurricanes and cyclones are caused by heat transfers over warm water and it only makes sense that if the water is warmer than usual, the storms that are spawned over it should be stronger as well.

people are dying from large snow events in europe by roofs caving in.this guy has the idea it does not exisit.hey doctor have another sip of b.s tea and call me in the morning lol.......

Originally posted by grover
hurricanes and cyclones are caused by heat transfers over warm water and it only makes sense that if the water is warmer than usual, the storms that are spawned over it should be stronger as well.

Yeah, I know. I thought so as well, but this guy is saying it's too simplistic, failing to take into account other factors:

"There are other conditions that are necessary to be able to tap that energy source, such as the structure of the wind systems," he says.

McBride says there's no proof that cyclones have become more common or will become more frequent in the future, or that they'll take place in more parts of the world.

"Worldwide, there's really no evidence for any change," he says.

We have a rough idea of how a cyclone forms, but we still don't know why some tropical storms develop into a hurrican while others just die off.

I think it's too early to tell if there's a real link. And even if there is a correlation, it may not be a causation.

little off topic, but how does La Nina and El Nino years correlate with climate change? are they related or not?

I'm hearing this being a La Nina year, we're in for a very very busy hurricane season.