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US Nukes vs. Iranian Nukes

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posted on Feb, 19 2006 @ 12:34 PM
Hi guys, this is my first post here. Actually my first post on a BBS ever. God I hope the gov't doesn't monitor users here...I mean, after all, you guys are conspiracy theorists.

(Note to feds: I'm not one of them! I swear! I'm just bored! Check my records! End note.)

In most debates I notice two common threads regarding the global nuclear issue: a) that the West has nukes but doesn't want others to have them, and b) that the US reduces its arsenal while simultaneously developing more advanced models.

Most people, especially non-Americans and non-Europeans, see point A as proof of American/European hypocrisy, elitism or intent on hegemony. IMO I believe this issue lays at the heart of the foundation of the international system: large wealthy countries make the rules; neo-realism is the driving force in diplomacy today. I.e. every country has an equal vote in the UN but the Big Five have veto power in the Security Council, etc. Large, wealthy countries have the ability to effect stability in the system. There is more at stake for large countries than small ones.

The original recognized nuclear powers have proven themselves to be remarkably responsible stewards. Yes, there is the conspiracy that the US and France helped develop the Israeli nuclear arsenal, and even deeper conspiracy buffs (you guys!) claim Israel helped the South Africans. But note that Israel has never leveraged its nuclear capability and South Africa dismantled its program. Yes, there is the fringe rumor that Soviet nukes have been misplaced or sold to terrorists, but come on, terrorists have substantial funding yet no Soviet suitacse has ever been detonated. The Indian nuclear program appears airtight at the moment (despite claims by Pakistani hackers to have stolen Indian documentation).

However, it's confirmed that the Pakistani nuclear physicist Khan gave/sold warhead blueprints to Iran and possibly Libya, Sudan and, supposedly, Saudi Arabia. Each of these countries, and Yemen, have all purchased North Korean ballistic missiles (were the Yemeni missles intercepted?). Each of these countries are tarred with the suspicion of support or complaceny in organized terrorism. None of these countries has a modern system of checks and balances on their militaries. Can large, wealthy countries trust them to be equally responsible stewards? Is one willing to place so immense confidence in one's ideal that "we're all equal" to risk the loss of a city neighborhood to terrorists funded/supplied by a non-aligned state? Neo-realism teaches that trust is scarce in the international arena; I don't think anyone trusts Iran. Iran confirmed to the IAEA that is has a warhead blueprint from Khan, Iran hid a Unranium enrichment program for 18 years, Iran turned down an offer of safe reactors from Europe and Iran declined to enrich unranium in Russia. Iran has done nothing to build trust within the system.

Whaoh this post is getting long. OK, I'll wrap up by saying that every country has upgraded its nuclear forces over the past decade. Back in the early 90s, at the depth of the post-Soviet Russian depression, the Kremlin still spent billions on developing and deploying new Topol missiles. The Chinese and French flauted the NPT by conducting live tests: the French tests were shocking because they were so huge and the Chinese tests were shocking because they were so small (they managed to miniaturize their weapons to cruise-missile-size).

So the US is developing smaller, more event-oriented devices: ok well everyone else is doing it too. And this is beneficial because it gives commanders flexibilty when, in the heated moment when one realizes only nuclear weapons will regain the balance of firepower, a commander doesn't have to use 1KT when .3 can do the job. Its the difference between fallout covering 300 sq. mi. instead of 3000 sq. mi.

Whew! Done.

posted on Feb, 19 2006 @ 02:12 PM
The Bush administration's new nuclear doctrine contains specific "guidelines" which allow for "preemptive" nuclear strikes against "rogue enemies" which "possess" or are "developing" weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The preemptive nuclear doctrine (DJNO), which applies to Iran and North Korea calls for "offensive and defensive integration". It explicitly allows the preemptive use of thermonuclear weapons in conventional war theaters.

The B61-11 is categorized as a "deep earth penetrating bomb" capable of "destroying the deepest and most hardened of underground bunkers, which the conventional warheads are not capable of doing". The B61-11s can be delivered in much same way as the conventional bunker buster bomb, from a B-2. a 5B-2 stealth bomber or from an F-16 aircraft.

posted on Feb, 20 2006 @ 05:50 AM
Problem is there is a good chance Iran already got bombs..

since this is your first post on a bbs (are they still called Bullitain Board Systems?) heres some tips:
*keep posts short, don't write entire opeds, we can get a better one from any newspaper..
*try to have a point, after reading your post, I have no idea what your point is..


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