Early Feb Storm For Ohio Valley

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posted on Jan, 28 2006 @ 10:50 AM
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Winter looks to make a return to the Ohio Valley in a big way around the 5th or 6th of Feb 2006. A low pressure system looks to move up from the south brining a very significant snow to the region. As of right now this system looks to effect the following airports...

IND, CVG, CMH, CLE, DTW and PIT

This is a storm that could cover the entire region with 8 to 10 inches of snow or more. Keep this in mind if you have travel plans. Perhaps get the loved one a snow shovel for Valentines Day




posted on Jan, 31 2006 @ 05:51 AM
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Geez, I wonder what Erie is going to get...



posted on Jan, 31 2006 @ 06:11 AM
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Don't know about Erie. I just checked the latest update for here in Indianapolis and we could be looking at totals that rival the storm last year which dumped nearly a foot of snow and made getting out of my subdivision nearly impossible. Actually the latest forecast model looks worse than last year for us. As of right now the totals could be as high as 16 inches.

And they don't plow my street.



posted on Jan, 31 2006 @ 06:48 AM
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When is it suppose to get here? I am in Louisville and the next 5 days of weather seems to be above normal and the 10 day is still above 32.



posted on Jan, 31 2006 @ 06:53 AM
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It's strange, in this part of Ohio when they predict large amounts of snow it usually happens all around us but not here. (Minerva, Stark County)


I hope you're wrong, but if your info comes from the national weather service, you're probably not.

The only thing Ohio has going for it is the fact that a prediction 2 days in advance can change dramatically in 1 day.



posted on Jan, 31 2006 @ 05:41 PM
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I checked the medium range forecast models and the storm is really growing in size. The last run has a low pressure system deepening to 979mb over southeast Michigan. 979mb is 28.91". That is a very low pressure. If this holds up we will be looking at a massive snowstorm for the region. This type of system will certainly be able to produce blizzard conditions. We shall see how the storm develops over the next few days. This should give me a good idea as to whether this will be just a snow storm or perhaps something bigger. I think we should know by Thursday evening just how bad this thing is going to be and exactly the path it will take and just how much snow places can expect.



posted on Jan, 31 2006 @ 05:51 PM
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Indy, are you a professional meteorologist? Or just a good amateur?
Sounds like you know what you're talking about.



posted on Jan, 31 2006 @ 06:00 PM
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I don't see it. Maybe some lake effect snow next week but that's it.
This is a current MRF and is valid until 2-14-06

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov...

www.spc.noaa.gov...

Where are you getting your data Indy?

I'm reading several models and the temp will be way above normal the first half of Feb. so snow looks unlikely.


[edit on 31-1-2006 by Lanotom]



posted on Jan, 31 2006 @ 06:32 PM
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Hopefully the image doesn't change before you get to see it...

weather.unisys.com...

This was specifically the one I was talking about in my last post. This shows the 979mb low. The AVN model has been toying with this story for a few days. The storm comes and goes from the AVN model but the one thing it has been holding steady on for days is the arrival of cold air.



posted on Jan, 31 2006 @ 07:38 PM
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On page 2 of this thread I pointed this out..
www.abovetopsecret.com...

About 2-3 weeks ago, I made an analysis that something like this was on the way. I sorta stopped following the weather because I predicted (twice) something that didnt happen. Maybe I was just off by a few weeks/month.

All I know, is that the setup I predicted is still in place.. and like I said, all it would take is a big low pressure system with a slight change in the jet stream (which almosts always happens when a low front moves in) and we'd get hit by a helluva storm. Mix in that it's Late january/early febuary and the great lakes are 100% unfrozen, and the ground/air moisture is high (not frozen), we're gonna get slammed.

I can't tell you if this is the cold front I predicted, but I assure you I'll take one last look and make one last analysis before I hang up my wannabe-meteorolgist shoes.

I'll poke around and see what i can did up.. until then, chew on this:


SYNOPSIS: The weather pattern over North America is expected to undergo a transition during the early part of the assessment period. The mild Pacific air that has dominated most of the CONUS is forecast to be replaced by colder arctic air for much of the eastern U.S. As the deep low pressure system and associated cold front responsible for the transition to colder weather moves across the southeast severe thunderstorms are possible over that region. After this storm moves into eastern Canada much of the eastern CONUS should transition to a colder,drier weather pattern. Early in the period a continuation of the very stormy pattern over the Pacific Northwest is expected but a trend towards drier conditions for this region is likely as the major storm track shifts northward towards Alaska. This will signal a change from the very cold temperature regime observed over much of Alaska recently to a much milder pattern by the middle part of the assessment period. As high pressure builds over the western U.S. mild dry weather is expected. The pattern of cold and dry in the eastern U.S., warm and dry in the western U.S. and eastern Alaska, and warm and wet in western Alaska is expected to continue through the end of the assesment period.

HAZARDS

# From February 3-4, severe thunderstorms are anticipated over the southeast states.

# From February 3-4, periods of heavy rain and mountain snow are expected over the Pacific Northwest and northern California; river flooding is possible.

# From February 3-5, coastal gales are expected over the Aleutians and southern Alaska coast.

# From February 3-4, much below normal temperatures will persist for western and northern Alaska.

# Critical Wildfire Conditions are forecast over west Texas and southeastern New Mexico February 3-5.

# From February 5-6 Heavy Lake Effect Snow is expected.

# Severe drought continues for parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kansas, Missouri, and the Midwest.

# Severe drought has expanded into southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico.



DETAILED SUMMARY

For Friday February 03 - Sunday February 05: Periods of heavy rain and mountain snow will persist for the Pacific Northwest and northern California as a series of storms move inland. Due to the antecedent wet conditions, river flooding is possible along the coastal ranges of the Pacific Northwest. A low pressure system is expected to develop over the Central U.S. early in the period. This system is expected to deepen rapidly and move northeastward into eastern Canada late in the period. The models have not been very consistent on the exact evolution of this system but it is possible that the trailing cold front could bring severe weather to parts of the southeast. As the storm deepens windy wet conditions are likely for parts of the eastern CONUS but confidence in the details of the impacts of this storm is low. The lack of cold air in place over the eastern U.S. suggests that snow/winter weather will be limited to the extreme northwest periphery of this storm. Strong winds on the backside of this developing storm could lead to critical fire weather conditions over the southern Plains. A series of strong storms will move in from off the northeast Pacific towards the Aleutians and south coastal Alaska. These storms will bring heavy rain and coastal gales to this region. The extremely cold temperatures over north/central Alaska early in the period are expected to moderate as southerly flow around the backside of a building upper-level ridge advects milder air into the region.

For Monday February 06 - Friday February 10: While the exact details of the evolution of the low pressure forecast to deepen and move into eastern Canada early in the period are highly uncertain a colder drier weather pattern is anticipated for much of the eastern CONUS. Since the Great Lakes remain mostly unfrozen an episode of heavy lake effect snow is likely early in the period as cold air moves across the relatively warm lake waters. Cold high pressure is expected to dominate the eastern two thirds of the country as the main baroclinic zone gets supressed southward to the Gulf coast. High pressure building over the Pacific Northwest should signal the end of the very stormy weather pattern there and give the region a chance to dry out. A warmer wetter pattern is expected for much of Alaska as a series of storms moves across the state from off the northeast Pacific.


All I'm really seeing is heavy lake effect (lucky for me..
)



posted on Jan, 31 2006 @ 07:39 PM
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Oh curses, foiled again!

I was so hoping winter was over.

I better go prep for the return of winter. I seem to remember everyone posting pics of the last big one. Anyone know where that thread is?



posted on Feb, 1 2006 @ 01:20 AM
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very interesting, I live just south of detroit and this looks like it could be a big one...

Detroit has the supper bowl this week end on the 5th. It would be something if the area got hit so hard it shut everything down.


Keeping an eye on this one.


Zintac
NWS. Storm spotter Detroit MI area.



posted on Feb, 1 2006 @ 09:18 AM
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I'm no weatherperson or anything; but everything i'm reading is basically saying that we are going to have more of the same weather. In other words; February looks to be a whole lot like January did.

I sure hope you Northerners don't get slammed with a big one.



posted on Feb, 1 2006 @ 03:38 PM
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As things look right now the northeast coast may be the one to get slammed instead. A couple of the big models are not in agreement with this storm. It is very much up in the air. The one thing that they are in agreement on is a big pattern change. The mild weather we have experience for 5 weeks is coming to and end. Back to reality. There are some really cold days ahead.



posted on Feb, 2 2006 @ 07:39 AM
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So your moving it from the Ohio valley to the Northeast?
This sounds like the same predictions we get from all other weather services. I predict that their will be snow when there is cold air and sufficent moisture.



Originally posted by Indy
As things look right now the northeast coast may be the one to get slammed instead. A couple of the big models are not in agreement with this storm. It is very much up in the air. The one thing that they are in agreement on is a big pattern change. The mild weather we have experience for 5 weeks is coming to and end. Back to reality. There are some really cold days ahead.



posted on Feb, 3 2006 @ 04:36 PM
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Looks like it's on for the area you predicted Indy.

weather.unisys.com...

8 INCES SATURDAY AND THEN ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION ON SUNDAY



posted on Feb, 3 2006 @ 04:50 PM
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Ok, you guys. This storm is heading for me but it's looking bad for areas north, south, east, and west of me. The last time I got hyped up about a snowstorm, it missed us by 250 miles. So I'm not getting all excited for this one either.



posted on Feb, 5 2006 @ 07:56 AM
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The "watch" is over for us, we ended up with about 1/8" of snow. It's snowing lightly now, but doesn't look like it will amount to much.



posted on Feb, 6 2006 @ 05:39 AM
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It's about 1" now, the wind is gusting hard and the roads are icy. I have to drive to Kent this morning in a van.... that sux.



posted on Feb, 6 2006 @ 10:38 AM
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Thanks for doing the weathe guy duty Indy.

What is it with these big storms?

This is the second or third this winter that were supposed to BURY SE Michigan and surrouding areas.
And while the "thumb" area of Michigan did get a lot of snow with these last two storms, my part of SE Michigan barely got an inch.

Indy, how is it these storms are predicted to hit certain areas, like SE Michigan and MISS completely? I mean they were saying 6-11 inces

Not that I'm complaining...we got over three inches of rain in January....who much snow would that have been





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