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SYNOPSIS: The weather pattern over North America is expected to undergo a transition during the early part of the assessment period. The mild Pacific air that has dominated most of the CONUS is forecast to be replaced by colder arctic air for much of the eastern U.S. As the deep low pressure system and associated cold front responsible for the transition to colder weather moves across the southeast severe thunderstorms are possible over that region. After this storm moves into eastern Canada much of the eastern CONUS should transition to a colder,drier weather pattern. Early in the period a continuation of the very stormy pattern over the Pacific Northwest is expected but a trend towards drier conditions for this region is likely as the major storm track shifts northward towards Alaska. This will signal a change from the very cold temperature regime observed over much of Alaska recently to a much milder pattern by the middle part of the assessment period. As high pressure builds over the western U.S. mild dry weather is expected. The pattern of cold and dry in the eastern U.S., warm and dry in the western U.S. and eastern Alaska, and warm and wet in western Alaska is expected to continue through the end of the assesment period.
# From February 3-4, severe thunderstorms are anticipated over the southeast states.
# From February 3-4, periods of heavy rain and mountain snow are expected over the Pacific Northwest and northern California; river flooding is possible.
# From February 3-5, coastal gales are expected over the Aleutians and southern Alaska coast.
# From February 3-4, much below normal temperatures will persist for western and northern Alaska.
# Critical Wildfire Conditions are forecast over west Texas and southeastern New Mexico February 3-5.
# From February 5-6 Heavy Lake Effect Snow is expected.
# Severe drought continues for parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kansas, Missouri, and the Midwest.
# Severe drought has expanded into southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico.
For Friday February 03 - Sunday February 05: Periods of heavy rain and mountain snow will persist for the Pacific Northwest and northern California as a series of storms move inland. Due to the antecedent wet conditions, river flooding is possible along the coastal ranges of the Pacific Northwest. A low pressure system is expected to develop over the Central U.S. early in the period. This system is expected to deepen rapidly and move northeastward into eastern Canada late in the period. The models have not been very consistent on the exact evolution of this system but it is possible that the trailing cold front could bring severe weather to parts of the southeast. As the storm deepens windy wet conditions are likely for parts of the eastern CONUS but confidence in the details of the impacts of this storm is low. The lack of cold air in place over the eastern U.S. suggests that snow/winter weather will be limited to the extreme northwest periphery of this storm. Strong winds on the backside of this developing storm could lead to critical fire weather conditions over the southern Plains. A series of strong storms will move in from off the northeast Pacific towards the Aleutians and south coastal Alaska. These storms will bring heavy rain and coastal gales to this region. The extremely cold temperatures over north/central Alaska early in the period are expected to moderate as southerly flow around the backside of a building upper-level ridge advects milder air into the region.
For Monday February 06 - Friday February 10: While the exact details of the evolution of the low pressure forecast to deepen and move into eastern Canada early in the period are highly uncertain a colder drier weather pattern is anticipated for much of the eastern CONUS. Since the Great Lakes remain mostly unfrozen an episode of heavy lake effect snow is likely early in the period as cold air moves across the relatively warm lake waters. Cold high pressure is expected to dominate the eastern two thirds of the country as the main baroclinic zone gets supressed southward to the Gulf coast. High pressure building over the Pacific Northwest should signal the end of the very stormy weather pattern there and give the region a chance to dry out. A warmer wetter pattern is expected for much of Alaska as a series of storms moves across the state from off the northeast Pacific.
Originally posted by Indy
As things look right now the northeast coast may be the one to get slammed instead. A couple of the big models are not in agreement with this storm. It is very much up in the air. The one thing that they are in agreement on is a big pattern change. The mild weather we have experience for 5 weeks is coming to and end. Back to reality. There are some really cold days ahead.