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Future of russia defense industry?

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posted on Jul, 16 2006 @ 01:25 AM
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AESA?
China?
almost caught up with western forces?
You've got to be kidding me..




posted on Jul, 16 2006 @ 02:19 AM
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Originally posted by Daedalus3
almost caught up with western forces?
You've got to be kidding me..


Name something they haven't got



posted on Jul, 16 2006 @ 02:55 AM
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fully working/operational AESA for starters?
What about a/c JDAM munitions?
off-bore sight a2a missiles?



posted on Jul, 16 2006 @ 03:07 AM
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Originally posted by Daedalus3
fully working/operational AESA for starters?


On what platfrom?


What about a/c JDAM munitions?


Read my quote
"Apart from some technology the PLA has almost caught up with most forces in technology"


off-bore sight a2a missiles?


Take your pick PL-8, PL-9 or the R-73



posted on Jul, 16 2006 @ 03:43 AM
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You mean PL-8 aka Python-3?


The PiLi-8 is a Chinese licensed copy of the Israeli Rafael Python-3 infrared-homing short-range air-to-air missile (SRAAM)
Source


PL-9 again with Python-3 IR seeker?


Therefore China integrated the Python 3 IR seeker with an indigenous missile airframe to produce the PL-9 for export market.
Source


Off-boresight is purely a capability of the seeker not the airframe.
Thataway any country manufacturing licensed missiles supposedly masters that tech.


AESA on fighters..The AWACS program also ain't doing to well with that unfortunate crash.



posted on Jul, 16 2006 @ 05:11 AM
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Originally posted by Daedalus3
You mean PL-8 aka Python-3?


No i mean the PL-8B



PL-9 again with Python-3 IR seeker?


No with chinese seeker



AESA on fighters..The AWACS program also ain't doing to well with that unfortunate crash.


Apart from the US, who else has AESA radars?

Also, the radar was not the fault it was either the plane or the engines



posted on Jul, 16 2006 @ 05:28 AM
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I'm sorry but my sources(both sinodefence) bear no mention of an indigenous seeker. Infact as quoted above, both clearly mention the usage of the Seeker on the Python-3 for the PL 8/9.
Can you give a source?



posted on Jul, 16 2006 @ 05:43 AM
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Chinese military aviation

This is the best site for chinese aviation, the author has been quoted in US military white papers. Sinodefence is just for a wide range of arms which are not very detailed and kept up to date with enw information because the owner either doesn't have the time or does not want to put information out when it becomes aviable as.

The missiles i shown you are different from the ones sino-defence is refering to and thats why its different. eg different variants etc

Also the pictures i showed you show a different seeker arrangment which means its a chiense developed one since no other missile has the same fit.


The first one is being dubbed the PL-8B while the PL-9C has actually been offered for export

[edit on 16-7-2006 by chinawhite]



posted on Jul, 16 2006 @ 12:31 PM
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As prelude said, stereotypes galore as usual.


The T-90 is actually the T-72BM with a new name. A sheep in sheeps clothing. This was done to improve the image of the T-72 after all the losses of T-72 in combat like chechnya and iraq. While the parts in both tanks is similar in design but are not compatible. The T-90 ustilzes a lot more advanced technology and a better sensors and is all round superior. But it is one example of a old tank that has just been modifled to seek export orders.


Not entirely correct. Even though T-90 is based on the standard T-72 chassis, everything including the power plant, transmission, turret, fire control, main gun, etc are of next generation.

Such deep modernisation makes simple economic sense since there are literally thousands of basic T-72s left in Russia and all over the ex-Soviet block.

T-90 is not as much as a tank but a deep modernisation programme.

Losses in Chechnya and Iraq have been talked about for ever, and it all comes down to the same old truth. In Chechnya generals were ordered to send tanks into Grozny by corrupt politicians in Moscow even though everybody knew to NEVER send tanks into the city with out clearing it out from RPG crews.

Bare bones plane jane T-72s with out modern sights and with out reactive armor were sent to be burned by Chechen RPG crews that took positions on the roofs. Later it was judged to be a criminally negligent order, and the same corrupt politicians that ordered the attack sold out the generals that carried out their own orders.

In Iraq it was even simpler. A basic T-72 with expired AP shells against a GPS enabled M1 with fully stabilised laser sighed gun is just like an M60 against the T80U.

Simpler put, a 12 gauge shot gun against a thermal sighted M21 in the night of an open desert. No match any way you spin it.

[quote]Current sales are india which has brought 124 T-90 tanks and is assebliing the rest. While the russian army has brought the grand sum of between 100-300 according to different sources. While in 2005 the russian military only ordered 17. The T-72 had tremendous export sucess serving in 28 armies. While the T-90 being a more capable tank has not reached anywhere close to these levels. My conclusion is people already know what these tanks are and rather go for a cheaper solution while the higher upper class countries which would likey buy this equipment choose western or european equipment[quote]

Look into Ukraine and Russian tank industries.

Later T80 models offer both gas turbine AND diesel power plants. Overwhelming majority of Ts exported are diesel and not GT, because GTs are more expensive to operate in every respect. They consume more fuel, have shorter range, have a lower life span, require higher training for maintenance crews, more expensive to repair, and parts supply forces a political dependency.

T72s on the other hand are being constantly upgraded by all nations that use them.


The Su-35 is a post-soviet design which is one of the most capable fighters ready for export and a very very cheap price compared to her comtempories like the Eurofighter or the rafale has not seen one sale. The russian airforce has not shown interest in buying this fighter ethier. While her predecessors like the Su-27 and Su-30 have been ranking up huge export sucess while being and less bang for a than a Su-35 and being less advanced they still are not being showned interest in.


A lot of variables here, main one being their goal of fully replacing the fleet with 5th gen gear, and it's exactly what they are set to do by 2012. That is why they are slow to upgrade to 4++ even though they have the funds and industrial capacity.


While again the more upper class markets are still a western owned region, like The middle east, Europe and Asian countries which rather opt for western equipment rather than newer russian equipment.


More political games, that's all.


The russian defense industry are now surving on export orders and to be more competitive they need more RnD funding to be more competitve when the western onsluahgt led by the Americans with their F-35 enters the aircraft market. The russians at this point do not have a prototype to match the F-35 on a cost effectivness graph. The mikoyan MFI 1.42 projet led to the 1.44 aircraft. While being claimed to be a advanced platform it did not finish development and was cancelled because of the lack of funds. While the new project PAK-FA has not even finished the design phase. It has hugley impossible schedule to perform(first flight in 2010). And according to media reports has only recieved something like 1/10th of the projected funding needed.


Wrong, please look into things before theorising on issues that have abundant facts. As I previously stated, Russian defense market has been very deceptive. The whole "lack of funds" thing is nothing more then propaganda. Russians traditionally funded their military even if the people were starving to death.

Just look into the majority of their programs. They have been continuously canceled only to be pushed into production anyway. They just use political loop holes to get the most slack with out being caught. Right now we are (US) paying to decommission 2 Typhoon class subs, while Russians are putting out 4 more new Akula class subs. So we are basically paying them to recycle their own nuclear subs.

Same thing with JSF. We still cant' finalise all mass production configurations. VTOL F-35 g\has been totally scrapped, standard models are do sometime in 2012, while Russians already HAVE a supersonic VTOL. The Yak-141 also has been canceled more time then I can count, yet again I hear that its being "worked" on.

Even more interesting is the fact that the work on Yak-141 never stopped, and the "new" configuration includes low RCS and internal weapon bays, and is to be used on a NEW nuclear aircraft carrier that is to be built in S. Petersburg. By 2018 they are planning to build 4 of those monsters, which are reported to be even larger then the one Ukrainians took apart in 1991.

So things are not at all as what they may seem.


The plan is to be a heavy fighter like the F-22 but only cost as mush as the F-35. The downfall of the 1.42 project was the lack of funding on the wooping 70million price tag. Here is the projected image of the PAK-FA


Again, the whole "lack of funds" issue is propaganda they keep pushing since the 90s. Look up the state of Russian economy and the total scale of their arms modernisation programs.

PAK-FA was canceled because it was still a 4++ gen airframe, while Russian defense ministry ordered a development of a pure 5th gen platform, which is to be DELIVERED by 2012, obviously right along side the F-35.

All they are doing is selling off Soviet are technology to finance the next generation of systems with out even paying out of there own pocket, and that goes across the board.


In reailty this is a Make or break project for russias avation industry. When the F-35 starts mass production you will be seeing the sales of the Soviet era fighters down like a stone. If this suceeds then it will be a major benifit for russia as the F-35 as of now is still on the protected aircraft list with only selected nations getting them.

Her naval ships are just re-vamped soviet designs which are still none the less are best in catergory. But russia has not designed a major post-soviet vessel.


Wrong, man, get with the times and read some journals or something. Russian aviation industry is at all time high. Sukhoi actually bough out most of MiG bureau. European manufacturers are lining up for partnerships, especially the French. F-35 is not a silver bullet, and even a deeply modernised MiG-21 will hold its own. That is exactly where the French and the Russians come in. Chinese are modernising there MiG-21 fleets with Russian/French systems. Do to extremely high levels of cooperation, by now French systems are fully compatible with Russian systems, thus their appeal on the international market.

Totally of the page on the Russian Navy. As with most of their arms industry, since the 90s they have been playing possum. Soviet arms manufacturing was spread out through out the 15 Soviet states, and since the collapse they've been busy consolidating and rebuilding various sectors on the Russian territory. Most of the dry docks were relocated to S. Petersburg, and just of the top of my head, I think it was May 17 when they rolled out the new stealth Corvette "Neystrashimi", project 20380. Basically similar in armament to MEKO-200 class, but in stealth configuration.

20th of March 2006 Putin singed an order #231, allocating over 5 trillion rubbles for deep modernisation of Russian armed forces between 06 and 2015. And those are the official numbers, which are traditionally lower then the actual expenditures. Divide 5 trillion by 24 and you'll get the amount in dollars.

The modernisation is literally across the board, and all based on new technologies manufactured on modern equipment. Just from what I remember, by 2015 10 divisions of Topol-M (69 units), 60 units of Iskander-M, 57 units of powered Sprut-D anti-tank guns, 499 units of airborne "Rakushka" BMPs. Considering the steady manufacturing rates of BMD-3s and BMD-4s by 2015 the whole park of Airborne armor will be completely modernised with brand new gear.

Same goes for armor divisions and motorised infantry. BMP-3s, BTR-80s, etc. So much for ground forces, while T-95 is well on its way.

Again, the whole project cancellation do to "lack of funds" is just a loop hole, and it goes for just about every project they run. KA-50 and KA-52 for example, both were supposedly canceled do to lack of funds in favor of Mi-28H. A couple of years go buy and we learn that the wer not in fact canceled. While 300 Mi-28H are to be delivered by 2015, KA-52s will also be fielded for use with special units. Current numbers are "a couple of dozen". Initially KA-52 was designed as a command unit to be used with KA-50s, but the cost of manufacture for KA-50s was higher then Mi-28h, because most of Mils parts are manufactured on the same plants as Mi-24s.

To a logical person none of that makes any sense. Lets brake it down. Mi-28 and Ka-50 competed and Hokum won because it was cheaper to manufacture and had all weather and night attack capability. Ka-50 was judged to be totally superior in every respect, with the only downfall being the lack of night targeting gear. Incidental Ka-50 was designed to be fitted with the same gear that Hokum sported during trials.

Chechen battle trials of KA-50s coax rotors proved that it is a clearly superior platform for operations in difficult mountainous terrain then a single rotor Mi-28. It was also apparent that a command unit was needed, thus the development of the KA-52 twin seat version, which also retained the ejection seat capability.

Then the Russians say that while they are keeping the KA-52 for "limited" production, for a main attack chopper they chose Mi-28 over the clearly superior KA-50. The interesting part is that by 2015 they intend to purchase over 1000 units of attack choppers, and Mi-28H comprises only 300 units of that total number with a "couple of dozen" Ka-52 command units.

Logically instead of running two separate factories, it would be cheaper to upgrade a Mi-28H to a command level just like with Apache Long Bow, but now, we are supposed to believe that to "save" money they will be manufacturing two completely different designs.

That's simply bull sh!t. Just like with everything else, in a couple of years they'll be making more expensive KA-50s for use in difficult mountainous areas along side with KA-52s and Mi-28s. Mi-28s will be used as a cheap all around partner for Mi-24 Hind, while KA-50s will run with KA-52s, so that way they get the best of both worlds. Cheap, simple and easily maintained Mi-28s and the superior KA-50 with KA-52 command.


In reality the russian economy has improved and has registered a straight 6%+ growth for the last 7 years. But this figure is still only at $1.535 trillion. compared to frances $1.816 trillion, Germanys $2.446 trillion Indias $3.678 trillion chinas $8.158 trillion and americas $12.37 trillion . Its economy cannot fund major military projects and keep its economy growing. Its defence budget is about 1/10 of americas and the JSF project will cost more than the russians can spend. You need economic growth along with RnD spending to compete and the russians have the protentional for it but it will take time. According to some reports the Big american compaines like Boeing Microsoft and lockheed martin brought them over and now are american scientist.


Dead wrong. Russian economy growth can not be judged by Western standards. Consumer economy (cash flow) and defense industry economy (still Federally controlled) are entirely different entities. US and Russian defense budgets can not be simply measured by the total amount. Think of it as MSRP pricing verses grey market pricing. While our Defense literally squanders funds on $800 toilet seats and never ending RnD programs which span decades and cost billions, Russians literally hide there real budgets and squeeze every penny.

Just as an example, it took over TWO decades and over FIVE BILLION dollars to roll out the Bradley APC, and even at that an additional billion had to be spent to actually make it battle worthy. US defense industry is a giant black hole specifically designed to suck up as much money out of tax payers pockets as possible, and it always been that way. Over bloated budgets and never ending programs, there only to pump tax money into the pockets of the defense industry elite. That's all it is.

Boeing, Microsoft, Lockheed martin, Pratt&Whitney, Silicon Valley, etc, true, a whole ARMY of Russian engineers, programmers, etc have been working on major projects. Over 1500 Russian engineers are working for Boeing for example. The current reality is that by now almost half of them moved back to Russia, because they are getting paid TWICE as much working for Russian companies.

Even CNN had a whole hour report on US high tech "brain drain" issue, specifically pointing out that a huge number of Indian/Chinese/Russian etc high tech professionals are choosing to move back to their own countries because they are simply getting better offers.

Unfortunately the current reality of US high tech is the typical micro management, mismanagement and flat out culture of incompetence that drives capable people out of the market. The set up is always the same, incompetent boss that "manages" a group of engineers comprised of Indians/Chinese/Russians. It's the same everywhere, I know that personally, and most of my international friends already accepted jobs in Asia and Europe and simply moved. It's a shame but it's how it is.

Same goes with education. US still produces the most high tech PhDs, yet retains the LEAST professionals. Most of high tech PhD graduates are no longer Americans.


Even if the russians go to india or china for funding they dont want to be the second fiddle and will want part of the contract or a joint development which leads to less money the russians make off exports. But the indians have got their MCA and other things they have control of plus american technology access so would they want to fund a huge program if they are already offered the F-35?

China was never a player in the PAK-FA or MFI project and only wanted to buy technology nd not to buy actual aircraft. Recent reports by chinese avation sources have produced photos that claim china is producing her own F-22 class aircraft so the PAK-FA wouldn't be a big possibilty. Her airforce is not looking to russia to buy upgrades for her russian aircraft and her navy is building her own ships and the eariler russian purchases which were rumoured to be stop gaps have been proven by the lack of future purchases to only be stop gap meaures.


Nobody has to go anywhere for funding. Russia is literally busting just from oil revenues, China is a total monster that literally keeps American economy running. Considering that they make just about everything, one can honestly say: "America-made in China."

I don't know about Chinese F-22, simply because they lack the high tech manufacturing capacity. I'm not talking about IT assembly, like TVs, Laptops, etc. That is exactly why they chose to pay through the nose for the license to build there own SU-27s instead of buying them cheap. They WANT that capacity, and so far they simply LACK the manufacturing and engineering culture to produce their own 5th gen fighter. It takes decades to build that up.


So will the russian defence industry survive?. Will it just be selling designs and contacts instead of pyhiscally exporting thieir own aircraft?


Oh please, they never felt better. Russians know all well that diplomacy with out arms is like music with out instruments. Russians are doing what they always have done. Napoleon and Hitler learned that the hard way. Russians play possum, buy time and fight with space. It's exactly what they have been doing this whole time.

No wonder that now the G8 in S. Petersburg is focused around Russians entry into WTO. For Russia it's a big deal. Various US puppet states like Georgia for example had no problems with their ticket into WTO because they do what they are told, but for Russia to get into WTO is a major step. That means that they are already a major force and are to be reckoned with.

For me personally the fact of the matter is simple. In about a moth I have a job interview in Moscow, and if it goes as planned my wife will be learning Russian. She speaks German already so it shouldn't be a problem. I'm as patriotic as the next guy, but I also live in the 21st century, and 21st century is a world market economy, not a cold war era paranoia pseudo-patriotic rhetoric. I'm sick and tired of working with incompetent idiots that only know how to play personal politics games and spend half of their time on Monster sending resumes so they can use it as leverage to squeeze a raise or a promotion from a boss who's just as incompetent as they are.

I had it.



posted on Jul, 16 2006 @ 06:07 PM
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Once again a thread about my country comes up, once again there's a swimmingpool full of BS. You can diss all you want, but just watch Russia, its getting better. We'll see who will eventually dominate. Ya'll just look out for Russia, its a force to be reckoned with.



posted on Jul, 16 2006 @ 06:13 PM
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Good job, Isklander, and Prelude, telling this ignorance off, keep up the good work



posted on Jul, 16 2006 @ 11:27 PM
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Thanks Iskander for a more balanced perspective on this subject.

Regarding the Russian defense aerospace industry; Putin's recent decision to merge all Russian aerospace assets into a largely state-owned entity, known as the Unified Aircraft Corporation, (or "OAK" in Russian) will definitely change the face of Russian aerospace defense production. (that's right, no more MiG, Sukhoi, etc)

This re-nationalization of the private sector may actually prove - at least initially - to be bad for marketing, but bringing all of Russia's aerospace R&D brain power under one roof could produce some technologically cutting edge products at affordable prices in the not too distant future.



[edit on 7-17-2006 by intelgurl]



posted on Jul, 17 2006 @ 02:04 AM
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Interesting^. Hmmm, very interesting, indeed.






What the F*!?!??!?!?!??!
Who the hell tagged this thread as Russian junk??!?!??! WTF!?!?!??!?!

v
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posted on Jul, 17 2006 @ 02:11 AM
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Originally posted by iskanderNot entirely correct. Even though T-90 is based on the standard T-72 chassis, everything including the power plant, transmission, turret, fire control, main gun, etc are of next generation.


And that is still a old dog with a new bone. It still a old dog and developed for yesterdays war. My intial post was stating was the russian industry was upgrading old designs instead of designing new ones. Even if you change the trasnmission, fire control, main cannon it will still be the same tank with a set of tools to use. Still better but not a new tank

What this means is, the russians are not putting money in RnD research which leaves them behind the other forces in development and thus in export markets because their trying to export older technology

Right now we are on the verge of a new technological tranistion. The fifith generation or the next genreatoin since it does not appply with all weaponary. Net centric warfare, UAV etc. A MBT with all its fancy gagets main gun will become obsolete since it takes more money to build a tank than build a UACV or a hell fire missile. Stealth is the key and the units being linked to a network. All this talk of AI and unmanned craft is the reality and the russians are investing in older technology

When forces around the world see a "upgraded" T-90 getting pounded in the field by new generation weapons exports will drop. More so when warfare starts to change so it does not include a MBT in it. Once exports faulter than thats it for exports and any possible money for RnD. Russia at this stage is not going to get rich from this boom. Notice how i link economy into military developments.

All the things you mentioned beforehand had already said by me in the intial post. One example of just posting and not reading carefully. Sure at this momment the T-90 might be a very capable tank which i already actknowledge, In my post i said it was a example of just upgrading a older tank just to seek export orders


Later T80 models offer both gas turbine AND diesel power plants.


So what????. From what you quoted i mentioned nothing about engines


A lot of variables here, main one being their goal of fully replacing the fleet with 5th gen gear, and it's exactly what they are set to do by 2012.


Apart from the fact there is no flying prototype in service, it still leaves the money factor. The russian defence budget is 20billion dollars and will not be able to grow to 100 billion or even 70billion a year since economic growth will no able you to spend that much on defense. Your going to spend 70million a piece on a plane when your army equipment is rusting alway and your navy does not even re-semble a proper army?. Come on man, 2020 would be a possible target to finish upgrading a fleet without a prototype even flying.

Apart from that, they are not replacing the fleet but moderising the fleet. The 350 odd Su-27 are planned to be modernized into the SM standard while the Mig-29 is being moderized into the SMT standard. Where are these "5th" planes going to go or the funds in which they will be puchased in while the whole russian force is in modernisation


Of all the military branches, the Russian Air Force is in the most difficult situation on both a moral and physical level, as the obsolescence of the fleet continues; now standing at approximately 2200 warplanes, most manufactured in the 1980’s.20 In the meantime, the Air Force will receive only two new planes in 2005 – one Tu-160 strategic bomber,21 assembled from Soviet era components, and the first serial production of the next generation advanced jet trainer, the Yak-130.22 Concerning modernization programs at the end of 2004, the 23rd Fighter Air Regiment in Dzemga in the Far East received the first seven modernized Su-27SM fighters, and in 2005 they should receive the delivery of seven to ten such aircraft.23 In other words, at this rate the complete modernization of the Su-27 fleet alone (about 350 fighters) will take anywhere from 30 to 40 years

Moscow Defence brief

Russian Aviation News is a good source of information


The whole "lack of funds" thing is nothing more then propaganda. Russians traditionally funded their military even if the people were starving to death.


"The whole lack of funds argument is the truth. or are you going to find a article which mentions there is no problems with the russian armed forces?


Russian navy gets a sinking feeling

The Russian navy is to scrap one-fifth of its fleet because of a chronic shortage of funds.

She adds that a decade or more of chronic under funding means that much of the fleet is now unseaworthy - more of a junkyard, as one analyst put it, than a navy.
In an interview with the newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda, Admiral Kuroyedov said the navy was receiving just 12% of the budget it needed to keep its ships afloat.

Link
Russia's blue water blues

I like the word traditionally. Does it refer to communist "soviet union" or russia since defence spending is a new for a modern government. Russians have not "tradtionally" being starving so they could fund their military. They were forced to because of the governemnts policies. Thus the end of communism because people did not want to "starve" to pay for weapons. Also if the russians spent anymore than 70billion dollars a year on their military it would collapse because it almsot equates to 10% of their GDP. North korea spends something like 20% of their GDP on defence while not actually fighting a war like the russians are.


Just look into the majority of their programs. They have been continuously canceled only to be pushed into production anyway.


So, stealth Yak-141 a super sized carrier (possiblity four), anything else i should add to my "wheres the proof list"?. If your going to claim something like that you should actually show a picture or proof

Cancelled list or short of funds only to be met with short of funds again

- Amur submarine, one built, nothing more
- Tank upgrades - slow progress lack of funds
- MFI project cancelled because of the lack of funds, russians didn't want to starve for this?
- Russian carrier
- Black eagle
- AN-70
- Mig-2000
- PAK-FA

Where is your list of cancelled projects coming back to life?. Also the Yak-141 is highly inaccurate even if it was being put back into service or development. And a stealthy Yak-141 LOL. Thast the equaliant to the Su-47 F-22 killer i've been hearing about a year ago.


Look up the state of Russian economy and the total scale of their arms modernisation programs.


Thats my whole point. They might have "plans" for planes and other things but these planes have absolutly nothing to do with the funding the programs are getting. Like my article has stated. If the russian airforce gets the rate of planes per year it would take 30-40 years before the program has finished. Putian had proposed a program for 10 years which equaled out to about 20billion a year. 70% to new arms and 30% to RnD. This is peanuts if you compare to other forces around the world


PAK-FA was canceled because it was still a 4++ gen airframe


No it wasn't. The plane in development is the PAK-FA.


Fifth-generation aircraft: national project without financial support

As far back as April 2002, a government commission chaired by Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov announced the selection of Aviation Military-Industrial Complex Sukhoi’s offer in the competition for Russia’s fifth-generation fighter. Since then, India has been mentioned time and again as a development partner, while another idea was to bring in aviation companies from Belarus and Ukraine. So far, none of these countries have agreed to participate in the Sukhoi project. China also has made it clear it was not interested in participating.

Sukhoi director-general Mikhail Pogosyan noted last summer that the design bureau had already spent about US$100 million of its own funds on the project. He said the government had promised to boost funding for the fifth-generation aircraft in 2006, but so far that promise has not been fulfilled.

In July last year, Pogosyan invited European companies to participate in the fighter’s development, but their response was muted to say the least, and Sukhoi officials appeared to come to terms with the harsh reality that they would have to go it alone.

Source



posted on Jul, 17 2006 @ 04:04 AM
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The topic was originally about the "FUTURE" of the russian defence industry. Future growth future development etc. Not about the future of the russian army and its military aquistions.

eg, Future markets, future funds and most important future competition. Because the russian RnD base is stagment other players like china, india, even pakistan or iran can compete with the russian industry in the next few years because they will be offering similar products for less than what the russians are offering.

The tanks, missiles and ships will all be competing againest other players for export orders. As of now, the russians are the only alternative defence industry to the american one. What i am telling you is the chinese, indians will be exporting to other countries and will beat the russians on price. Because the russian defence industry relies on its advantage in technology compared to the china and india today it still wins more orders in the medium technolog area because the chinese and indians cannot offer a similar product. If the russians continue to offer the same products and not continue to invest heavily in RnD they will be over taken and over produced by other makers, hence the necessity of them to expand and continnue to be ahead. With 20 billion a year in defense expeniture its not going to change anything because china already outspends russia by a large margin and out produces engineers and scientist by a large margin.

Ever noticed the chinese in russia or euope and america?. They go there to study and like you mentioned ultimatly return and get offered better money to work in a defense industry or a commerical one. These people are going to be leading the russians and thats one of the reasons why russia should re-vamp its indutries to compete and develop with its lead.

As of now the russia lead is almost zero in most areas since the chinese have either developed ones themselves or had russian assitance in developing one for their use.

eg.

The russian airforce exports fighters like the Su-27 and Mig-29. What happens when fighters like the F-18 and F-16 get phased out of western service and enter the used aircraft market?. You think people will be buying expensive russian fighters with all these "show" toys like TVC which has practically no use in a modern BVR situation. How is it going to compete againest F-16 with half the price and comes with american quality and has been proven in battle. I haven't seen countries with little money interested in a long range fighter sicne it cost a lot more and a short range fighter which cost a lot also.

What out for the FC-1 fighter. It might not be some technical marvel but will compete in servicbility and cost. Its aiming at the large market of airforces which dont need either of the russian planes. This market will be opening up in the next few years with Mig-21 and F-5 going to be retired. The Su-27 and Mig-29 doesn't fill that role. Dont expect to be seeing large sales of Su-27 or Mig fighters in the future anymore. Minus the indian and chinese planes brought and in that period from 1990-2006 you have only sold about 150 planes altogether. Now factor in the future without a large buyer like india or a even larger buyer in china. Now take out the land equipment and naval equipment and you ahve even less revenue you can call profit

Do you expect the russian defence industry to survive without a export market?.


A list of things you can provide proof for

- The current reality is that by now almost half of them moved back to Russia, because they are getting paid TWICE as much working for Russian companies.
- European manufacturers are lining up for partnerships, especially the French
- Do to extremely high levels of cooperation, by now French systems are fully compatible with Russian systems
- Yak-141
- Carrier
- Actual funding for the new defence deal


F-35 is not a silver bullet, and even a deeply modernised MiG-21 will hold its own.


How exactly?.

the defunctant plasma stealth, new radars?. I will assure you the Mig-21 will not hold its own againest the F-35 simply because the Mig-21 will not see the F-35. It is as close as a silver bullet as they come in a equal senario. Its the equilant of jet vs propellor when factor in a engament senario


Chinese are modernising there MiG-21 fleets with Russian/French systems. That is exactly why they chose to pay through the nose for the license to build there own SU-27s instead of buying them cheap.


Nope. Your thinking of the indian Mig-21s

The deal to manufracture 200 Su-27 was 2.5 billion dollars. That equals about 12.5 million an aircraft. Considering that the F-22 is 100+billion each i consider that a bargin. The last 100 Su-27 are going to be in the SKM standard which is even more of a bargin


allocating over 5 trillion rubbles for deep modernisation of Russian armed forces between 06 and 2015.


$185 billion US for 9 years = 20.5 billion a year

Thats peanuts compared to other defence budgets. Now 70% will go to new equipment and 30% will go to. War in chechyna and other commitments and you have yourself a very small defence budget

Can you provide a list of all the equipment the russians will be supplying since you have been saying a massive amount of equipment which i do not deny but am wondering since that is a lot of equipment. But getting abck to the topic, 120-30 billion being spent on the industry to buy equipment is not a large figure since its not profit or even net profit. Even a country like india will out spend russia in that period of time and will not have 1000 new tanks or 1000 new palnes to show for it. 185 is a large sum of money but its being spread thing over a long period of time.

So what if they moderize, how is that going to help any future programs?. The systems are mostly going to be upgraded with new systems and still leaves a defense industry without proper funding or a market


Russian economy growth can not be judged by Western standards.


Why not?, they are planning on joing the WTO. Everything you say seems to be towards a hidden plan or a hidden something. There is nothing to hide when you live in a global village. The russian economy is this amount and will not change because its that amount.

PPP is the equation used to change ones currency to another. People in russia do not work for free, the state can subsidize the raw materials but it cannot not pay workers, you actually suggest they get paid mroe in russia than in america. One plane made in russia will not be twice as cheap as if a simialr plane will be made in america. Same goes for development. You have to put a similar amount to get a simialr result. There is no hidden money, they still need to work on other places like infrastruture and the "free electricity someone claimed they had.

Just think about it like this
They have $176.7 billion revenue ad will spend 20billion a year on the military. How tell me how the other sectors of the russian industry will cope, health, education etc. There is no hidden amount, its just plain and simple



posted on Jul, 17 2006 @ 04:07 AM
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I have already wrote about the possible markets beforehand


Potentional markets for russian weapons

#.South America, all the states following Venezuelas path.

The difference is Venezuela is a oil rich country and the rest of the region are poor countries. Now in these last 30 years which country has brought new equipment which was modern?. argentina lost the flasklands and would have been expected to up-build for another round. They want to but theres no money. The whole south america has no sercuirty threats nor do they pocess natiosn which will threaten them. Venezuela might not be a stable country at the mommet but south america do not fear them but treat them as heros. This place is where europens sell their weapons and if you go check out a equipment list there is a lot of french influence there

States in south america have rarly been known to buy massive amounts of equipment and the most likey equipment would be aircraft since the F-5 aircraft are getting old even with thoughs upgrades. But the amount fo F-16 which ahve limited airframe use mainly dents the russian hopes of using this as a area where it can sell a lot of fighters. For small arms and other land based equipment they would opt for cheaper chinese weapons(which they have) or for american made weapons depending on their polictical influence but considering the amount of left wing governemtns coming to power in south america this would be a real doubt

The whole area is not cash rich and it would be such a bargin even if they made that contract

# Indonesia, Burma, Vietnam, Bangladesh, all asian smaller economyes whit out deep commitmences to other supplyers.

Burma and bangladesh as chinese buyers and so is thailand. Indonesia also recently bought some chinese equipment something about missiles anti ship or ballsitic im not to sure but off my head they did buy some. Vietnam has brought a grand total of 4 planes in the last few years and i think they were in a contract to recieve some second hand tanks

Almost the same conditions as South america. Not much need for the equipment and not much money for that equipment. Most of those countries while either buy from a third source like vietnams polish tanks or buy from chinese like burma and bangladesh which dont really need high tech equipments and much of a airforce

#Iran&middle east.

Iran has here own fighters in development with russian technical help. This includes russian avonics and russian R-77 misile supposly featured on her Shafaq and Azarakhsh planes. The suadis wouldn't be left to fall since america needs that oil and other countries in the middile east are well off with their cizitens not paying any tax. Wasted money?. yes but when the oil is gone they wont have enough money to buy russian planes. In the missile east theres a large Anti-american sentiment but also a very large anti-russian sentiment as well just depending on your country

The middile east is mainly a western affair, all the large contracts are for american and western compaines and most of them have either rejected russian equipment or have brought in very small trial quanties. It has fierce competition from many of the worlds arms compaines and is doubtful and large sales go though

#Old customers, India and China, thougth not so strongly dependaple but not all areas they can be selfinsuficient.Shanghai co-operation pact and its evolpment into full scale military alligment.

But like i said they wont come in just buy from a russian factory but joint-ventures or production lines with-in ther country like indias Su-30MKI which is costing india 23million a piece and the BrahMos and other equipment. India has some very ambious plans like a indegenious BVR missile her own stealthy aircraft. indigenioius submarines and her own MBT tank which will be the future rumoured arjun II

China has not made a major order for russian weapons in a while excluding the Il-76 which cannot be made in china. The purchases china have made are spare parts and equipment that was ordered before hand. J-1s Yuan HQ-9 missiles. The real russian weapons that china brought were brought when chian didn't have capability to make things herself. Sovernys were brought just to fill the gap in blue ocean capbility and were ordered when china did not have the Type-52B/C. the kilos were ordered way back when china did not yet ahve the yuan The S-300 was brought when china did not have the HQ-9. THe last one is debateble because some sources say its just a licensed produced on while some say its a different version

China does not need russia anymore. The western embargo is not a embargo from the west but only for american products. During the whole time china had access to western technology. Israel france, germany all supplied china technology

In actual reality the chinese and russian relationship are almost about staurated on the high tech field since the russians have offered all they can offer. In a sense china and russia are on par on many levels in RnD. And on the level china is investing RnD and the amount of uni grads china is producing is inevtible that russia will be over taken. I wrote on this before. The russians only are really using Cold war developed technologies.

What china really needs now is managment systems communications data links. etc. Things the russians cant offer and things joint ventures are producing. Engines from germany. France for command systems.

Russia, if you look at the systems russia gave are basically technologies from the cold war. Kilos, Su-27s, Sovs. etc are all there to inhance chinas combat capablity instead of to upgrades chinas RnD research. Other systems china has are all fom western technology during the US-china honey-moon period when china was begining to change from a peoples force to a aerican force. RRUs if you look at their force structure is similar to american ones and their equipment is also very similar. Russian equipment was only used as a stop-gap until a chinese system could be found.

Chinas having a new medium transport program with ukrainian after they dropped russia(which in turn formed a partnerhip with india). Another souce of informaion

None the less, russian help was very valuble then but now china is almost self sufficent. But none the less with the russians experience in design is more benifical and quicker to work with russian help

# Domestic need. Russia has supraisingly well recovered from its fall

While in reailty russia could only let her military budget grow at 6% but if they wanted to it could grow more but that puts pressure on a economy which has not had stable growth so for now and the future ahead i dont see russia explanding in any direction

All of the money which would be spent would be at a discounted rate and though upgrading older aircraft with newer technologies which is not much of a increase to fund RnD. The russian defence industry is geared towards exports and is not geared to a future american threat



posted on Jul, 17 2006 @ 04:10 AM
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Originally posted by Russian soldier

What the F*!?!??!?!?!??!
Who the hell tagged this thread as Russian junk??!?!??! WTF!?!?!??!?!




Happens on these threads..ignore..
people use the tag thing more as a pissing post than anything helpful mostly..



posted on Jul, 17 2006 @ 04:11 AM
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Originally posted by intelgurl
Thanks Iskander for a more balanced perspective on this subject.


Please intelgurl, if your going to accuse me of being bias provide something, like a quote to show how i am bias



posted on Jul, 17 2006 @ 04:16 AM
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Originally posted by Russian soldier
Who the hell tagged this thread as Russian junk


Well, there are a lot of american members in this forum which seems to be your rivials. Im pretty sure i was the one which posted russian defense industry because it is my thread. In most of the threads theres things like that



posted on Jul, 17 2006 @ 11:35 PM
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Thanks Iskander for a more balanced perspective on this subject.


Hi intelgurl, I just call it how I see it. I read a lot of Russian publications to keep my Russian "fresh", and I come across a lot of military articles.

When you read enough of them you naturally begin identifying patterns. In the case of Russian defense industry the patterns are pretty standard.

Media releases regularly point out the decrepit state of Russian armed forces forcing public opinion to absorb another wave of taxation.

Immediately after another waive of media releases state massive improvements, and the cycle continues.

It's always the same, low morale, no funds, outdated equipment with no sight of replacement, and considering the actual numbers it's just a deflection technique. It's a draft army, and historically in a draft army there will always be regiments on the side lines.

In US media we only get to see the negative articles because it plays into our own defense industry budget justification, and a public opinion is kept assured of our unshakable superiority. I for one choose to be informed instead of blindly brushing everything of, and for a fact know that Russians are not standing still, on the contrary they are building up at an astonishing rate while keeping it completely quiet.

Now to chinawhite.


Regarding the Russian defense aerospace industry; Putin's recent decision to merge all Russian aerospace assets into a largely state-owned entity, known as the Unified Aircraft Corporation, (or "OAK" in Russian) will definitely change the face of Russian aerospace defense production. (that's right, no more MiG, Sukhoi, etc)

This re-nationalization of the private sector may actually prove - at least initially - to be bad for marketing, but bringing all of Russia's aerospace R&D brain power under one roof could produce some technologically cutting edge products at affordable prices in the not too distant future.


As usual there's a lot more to this then it might seem. For a while now the whole Russian defense industry has been going through a massive consolidation restructuring program. Just since 2001 five holding companies have been formed for just about every branch. Stuff like consortium for all missile manufacturers, armor manufacturers holdings, etc.

New federal laws have been established largely do to a number of high profile cases disclosed by FSB.

For years they investigated all kinds of "bankruptcy for hire" schemes aimed at Russian defense companies and orchestrated by foreign investment companies. One public case focused on Omsktransmash, a tank manufacturer, which was targeted for such "bankruptcy for hire" scheme, and prevented by FSB.

On these bases the majority of Russian defense industry has been reorganised under federal regulations.


And that is still a old dog with a new bone. It still a old dog and developed for yesterdays war. My intial post was stating was the russian industry was upgrading old designs instead of designing new ones. Even if you change the trasnmission, fire control, main cannon it will still be the same tank with a set of tools to use. Still better but not a new tank

What this means is, the russians are not putting money in RnD research which leaves them behind the other forces in development and thus in export markets because their trying to export older technology


Flat wrong. Unless it's a matter of a whole new low profile radar/thermal stealth concept, a tank hull is a tank hull. Suspension, turret, etc are all components which are regularly upgraded to modern standards.

How you figure that Russians are not funding RnD I have no idea, since EVERY Russian RnD sector has been consistently HIRING since late 90s.

Scores or Russian engineers working in US simply went back to Russia because they get paid better. It's a fact, look into it your self.


Stealth is the key and the units being linked to a network. All this talk of AI and unmanned craft is the reality and the russians are investing in older technology


Where do you get this stuff? I read all kinds of journals and have no idea how you conjure this stuff up. Do you even know what Russians are investing in?

BTW, talking about linked networks, Russians have been running them since the 70s.


When forces around the world see a "upgraded" T-90 getting pounded in the field by new generation weapons exports will drop. More so when warfare starts to change so it does not include a MBT in it. Once exports faulter than thats it for exports and any possible money for RnD. Russia at this stage is not going to get rich from this boom. Notice how i link economy into military developments.


No offense, but every single aspect of that statement lacks basic logic and is based on assumptions and speculation. In other words, no relation to reality what so ever.


All the things you mentioned beforehand had already said by me in the intial post. One example of just posting and not reading carefully. Sure at this momment the T-90 might be a very capable tank which i already actknowledge, In my post i said it was a example of just upgrading a older tank just to seek export orders


Not at all. T-90s upgrades are not export specific, as I stated previously. Thousands of T-72s are sitting with out use because they do not meet modern requirements, it is only logical to upgrade them instead of investing into a total replacement by a new generation.


Apart from the fact there is no flying prototype in service, it still leaves the money factor. The russian defence budget is 20billion dollars and will not be able to grow to 100 billion or even 70billion a year since economic growth will no able you to spend that much on defense. Your going to spend 70million a piece on a plane when your army equipment is rusting alway and your navy does not even re-semble a proper army?. Come on man, 2020 would be a possible target to finish upgrading a fleet without a prototype even flying.


chinawhite, my apologies but you clearly lack a knowledge base on the state of Russian economy.


Apart from that, they are not replacing the fleet but moderising the fleet. The 350 odd Su-27 are planned to be modernized into the SM standard while the Mig-29 is being moderized into the SMT standard. Where are these "5th" planes going to go or the funds in which they will be puchased in while the whole russian force is in modernisation


Wrong, 2007 is slated for two main 5th gen fighters which will form the back bone of the air force. Heavy twin engine and light single engine.


"The whole lack of funds argument is the truth. or are you going to find a article which mentions there is no problems with the russian armed forces?


This is a 3 minute search just from lenta, and that's not including the actual detailed journals.

lenta.ru...
lenta.ru... - 5 trillion between 207 and 2015
lenta.ru... - 8 hundred billion for 2007
lenta.ru...
lenta.ru...
lenta.ru...
lenta.ru...
lenta.ru...
lenta.ru...
lenta.ru...
lenta.ru...
lenta.ru...
lenta.ru...
lenta.ru...
lenta.ru...
lenta.ru...
lenta.ru...

The most important thing to remember, that 1 dollar spent by Russian defense equals at least 10 dollars spent by US defense.

If that's hard for some to grasp, think of it this way, when you go to Philippines for a vacation, a lobster will cost you there about 2-3 bucks, and NOT the premium that you'll spend in US.



I like the word traditionally. Does it refer to communist "soviet union" or russia since defence spending is a new for a modern government. Russians have not "tradtionally" being starving so they could fund their military. They were forced to because of the governemnts policies. Thus the end of communism because people did not want to "starve" to pay for weapons. Also if the russians spent anymore than 70billion dollars a year on their military it would collapse because it almsot equates to 10% of their GDP. North korea spends something like 20% of their GDP on defence while not actually fighting a war like the russians are.


Again chinawhite, most of your concept are clearly based on somewhat "doctored" information specifically prepared in such a way as a product designed for public opinion consumption. Please don't take it as insult, it's not, because for example its kind of like a "movie magic" concept.

Things are simplified in order to create the illusion and distract from the workings behind the curtain. In case of USSR, the "iron curtain".


So, stealth Yak-141 a super sized carrier (possiblity four), anything else i should add to my "wheres the proof list"?. If your going to claim something like that you should actually show a picture or proof


I think the article was on lenta.ru, feel free to investigate, I'm to old to care about "show me or you're lying" crapp. I did my share on this forum to deliver proof positive facts time and time again, and know for a fact that it will just start all over again on the next topic.

Man there is a whole lot you wrote there, and most of it just repeating the same things over and over.

You keep re-stating your deep misconception of Russian economy and defense budgeting.

Again I'll put it as plainly as I can. Defense dollar is not spent in Russia as it is in US. That dollar goes a long way. You want proof? Political science and economics could be just your thing.

Even though I was clear on the patterns of Russian back footing with their project funding, I'll say it again. They REGULARLY, as a STANDART, announce CLEARLY conflicting project funding statements. I've been reading them for years.

Just as an example, PAK-FA was advertised by MiG as a 5th gen, yet it was NOT a single engine 5th gen design that was required. Twin engine tender was clearly to be build by Sukhoi, and MiG simply wanted that contract, and that is exactly why they personally sponsored the project with their own funds. The funds that they didn't get was the funding needed to push the prototype into serial production.

Naturally it ended in Sukhoi going on offensive and literally buying MiG out.

chinawhite, most things are rather involved, a lot of economical and political games, not just what a press release tells you.

Your notions that China no longer needs Russian tech are simply of base. It's a lengthy topic, and I'll appreciate if you can take the initiate and bring your self up to speed on things like high end industrial manufacturing technologies.

Again where you get the idea that Russian RnD is dead I have no idea, your Russian economy and defense budget numbers are also off, and your tone in general has that cold war era tinge.

I live in the modern world of global supply chain economy. That world is more like money every day, it sees no color, race, religion, or political affiliation.

BTW that Chianese is MiG-21/F-16 hybrid, not Indian upgrade.

The sources you listed on more Mikoyan/Sukhoi supremacy games naturally have a underlining.

I say it again, both Mikoyan and Sukhoi have been battling for supremacy, Sukhoi won. They both used all kinds of maneuvers to win over the defense department.

All other stuff about used F-16s killing Russian market are ridiculous. Australians prefer F-18s anyway, simply because it requires the lowest maintenance hours. In any case aircraft industry is a political arena, not a super market.

Australians proved to be a best source for unbiased info on US gear btw, and generally that's where I get my info on F-35, stealth, BVR and other stuff.

I have some pdfs somewhere on their down to earth and realistic assessments of F-35, BVR missiles of all kinds, etc.

If you want to take a chance on changing your pov somewhat on how things really are, let me know, I'll take look for them.

Cheers.



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