Future of russia defense industry?

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posted on Jan, 25 2006 @ 09:41 PM
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Everyone knows about russian weaponary,

Reliable, cost effective and "battle proven"

Gone are the days where the Soviet government subsidized the defence industry and made massive orders for military equipment. Gave massive sum for RnD. While now is the new era of independent arms sales and arms fairs

Her tradtional market of arms sales like india have now decide to be a more indegenious route or instead wanting to do it herself like the joint development and self production. And china which has also stopped buying new russian equipment and is now concentrating on building up and "iindigenising" her equippment while the Other countries like algeria, syria, Iraq(LoL) are all now so poor they cannot buy this equipment. The Soviets sold equipment to these countries but it wasn't in hard currency but in batter deals which were bought higher than market prices. eg Cuban sugar

While russian equipment is still competitive in the third world they are becoming more expensive and less sophiticated compared to western weaponary. It is not just Russian, American and European suppliers anymore. More countries are seeking to make joint ventures and own the production lines and self produce russian equipment. Now what is the current state of russias RnD research?. What the russians are really doing is modiflying Soviet era weapons with western technology. All the new improvments like the T-90, Su-35s, and new ships all benifited from acess to western technology

The T-90 is actually the T-72BM with a new name. A sheep in sheeps clothing. This was done to improve the image of the T-72 after all the losses of T-72 in combat like chechnya and iraq. While the parts in both tanks is similar in design but are not compatible. The T-90 ustilzes a lot more advanced technology and a better sensors and is all round superior. But it is one example of a old tank that has just been modifled to seek export orders.

Current sales are india which has brought 124 T-90 tanks and is assebliing the rest. While the russian army has brought the grand sum of between 100-300 according to different sources. While in 2005 the russian military only ordered 17. The T-72 had tremendous export sucess serving in 28 armies. While the T-90 being a more capable tank has not reached anywhere close to these levels. My conclusion is people already know what these tanks are and rather go for a cheaper solution while the higher upper class countries which would likey buy this equipment choose western or european equipment

The Su-35 is a post-soviet design which is one of the most capable fighters ready for export and a very very cheap price compared to her comtempories like the Eurofighter or the rafale has not seen one sale. The russian airforce has not shown interest in buying this fighter ethier. While her predecessors like the Su-27 and Su-30 have been ranking up huge export sucess while being and less bang for a than a Su-35 and being less advanced they still are not being showned interest in. While again the more upper class markets are still a western owned region, like The middle east, Europe and Asian countries which rather opt for western equipment rather than newer russian equipment.

The russian defense industry are now surving on export orders and to be more competitive they need more RnD funding to be more competitve when the western onsluahgt led by the Americans with their F-35 enters the aircraft market. The russians at this point do not have a prototype to match the F-35 on a cost effectivness graph. The mikoyan MFI 1.42 projet led to the 1.44 aircraft. While being claimed to be a advanced platform it did not finish development and was cancelled because of the lack of funds. While the new project PAK-FA has not even finished the design phase. It has hugley impossible schedule to perform(first flight in 2010). And according to media reports has only recieved something like 1/10th of the projected funding needed.

The plan is to be a heavy fighter like the F-22 but only cost as mush as the F-35. The downfall of the 1.42 project was the lack of funding on the wooping 70million price tag. Here is the projected image of the PAK-FA


In reailty this is a Make or break project for russias avation industry. When the F-35 starts mass production you will be seeing the sales of the Soviet era fighters down like a stone. If this suceeds then it will be a major benifit for russia as the F-35 as of now is still on the protected aircraft list with only selected nations getting them.

Her naval ships are just re-vamped soviet designs which are still none the less are best in catergory. But russia has not designed a major post-soviet vessel.

In reality the russian economy has improved and has registered a straight 6%+ growth for the last 7 years. But this figure is still only at $1.535 trillion. compared to frances $1.816 trillion, Germanys $2.446 trillion Indias $3.678 trillion chinas $8.158 trillion and americas $12.37 trillion . Its economy cannot fund major military projects and keep its economy growing. Its defence budget is about 1/10 of americas and the JSF project will cost more than the russians can spend. You need economic growth along with RnD spending to compete and the russians have the protentional for it but it will take time. According to some reports the Big american compaines like Boeing Microsoft and lockheed martin brought them over and now are american scientist

Even if the russians go to india or china for funding they dont want to be the second fiddle and will want part of the contract or a joint development which leads to less money the russians make off exports. But the indians have got their MCA and other things they have control of plus american technology access so would they want to fund a huge program if they are already offered the F-35?

China was never a player in the PAK-FA or MFI project and only wanted to buy technology nd not to buy actual aircraft. Recent reports by chinese avation sources have produced photos that claim china is producing her own F-22 class aircraft so the PAK-FA wouldn't be a big possibilty. Her airforce is not looking to russia to buy upgrades for her russian aircraft and her navy is building her own ships and the eariler russian purchases which were rumoured to be stop gaps have been proven by the lack of future purchases to only be stop gap meaures.


So will the russian defence industry survive?. Will it just be selling designs and contacts instead of pyhiscally exporting thieir own aircraft?

EDIT: Usual spelling mistakes



Thanks to ImageShack for Free Image Hosting

[edit on 25-1-2006 by chinawhite]




posted on Jan, 25 2006 @ 09:45 PM
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It will survive of course, but it won't go up there with the U.S. defense contractors no doubt. Of course China could possibly match against America's military industry. What a nightmare!!!!



posted on Jan, 25 2006 @ 09:47 PM
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Interesting Post CW. BTW, the image is not showing.

Russian weapons makers will have to offer up even closely held technology in the future in order to survive. I would not be the least bit surprised to see what for lack of a better word Operation Paperclip II, where thier scientists, et are brought over to the US not for what they know, but rather than not letting anyone else get a hold of it. Russia has always had excellent scientists, but the lack of money will kill any ability to see advanced military products produced.



posted on Jan, 25 2006 @ 09:48 PM
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EDIT:double post

[edit on 25-1-2006 by chinawhite]



posted on Jan, 25 2006 @ 09:48 PM
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Originally posted by deltaboy
Of course China could possibly match against America's military industry. What a nightmare!!!!


Anyone has potentional to match america

but the thing is america is buying their potentional



posted on Jan, 25 2006 @ 10:07 PM
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Originally posted by chinawhite
Anyone has potentional to match america

but the thing is america is buying their potentional


You got me there. What a nightmare!!!!



posted on Jan, 26 2006 @ 10:46 AM
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I think it will survive. And majorly because of India, if nothing else. But again as cw said it will be more of a tech/know-how export kind of thing rather than 'units'.
I suspect we will see more and more collaboration between India and Russia in the defence reasearch arena. Patrly because Russia can thus keep its miltary research ambitions alive, and India can gain more from this w/o having to struggle with totally indigenous programs for looong durations and depend on western temperaments. Its inevitable. We have seen it with brahmos,glonass, and i still suspect the PAK-FA is running the discussion/negotiation pipelines.



posted on Jan, 26 2006 @ 03:13 PM
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Of course the russian defence industry will survive but will it still be competitive. Im looking at a bleak future one where russians would have to resort to selling missle technology to fund its industry. India and china both are now on a indigenious route and when they have finished their own little modernization then their planes are up for export. or their tanks are up for export.

Lets see how the MRCA tender turns out. I would like to see the superhornet get the larger share than Mig-35 purchases. If the russians get the MRCAs 8 billion dollar contract this will most probaly fund the PAF-FA or a mikoyan project



posted on Jan, 27 2006 @ 11:27 AM
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Its a question of time when Russia has enough money to do advanced projects. Russia is huge and has allot of resources.



posted on Jan, 28 2006 @ 09:38 AM
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Originally posted by tomcat ha
Its a question of time when Russia has enough money to do advanced projects. Russia is huge and has allot of resources.


Sure Russia is lousy with resources, but its population is crashing. What's worse (for them), anyone with some smarts and or ambition moves somewhere it doesn't get to -50 in winter.

I work in IT for a large US defense contractor (non military work) and we have lot of smart Russian (and Chinese) emigrants working for us.

The plain fact is, the US is a nicer (and warmer) place to live than Russia and that's not going to change. Don't believe me? Ask them.

[edit on 28-1-2006 by ElTiante]



posted on Jan, 28 2006 @ 11:07 AM
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Originally posted by ElTiante


Sure Russia is lousy with resources, but its population is crashing. What's worse (for them), anyone with some smarts and or ambition moves somewhere it doesn't get to -50 in winter.

I work in IT for a large US defense contractor (non military work) and we have lot of smart Russian (and Chinese) emigrants working for us.
The plain fact is, the US is a nicer (and warmer) place to live than Russia and that's not going to change. Don't believe me? Ask them.

[edit on 28-1-2006 by ElTiante]



Well dont forget that these -50 degrees have saved us from a lot of trouble througth out the history



posted on Jan, 28 2006 @ 12:38 PM
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Originally posted by Russian Boy

Originally posted by ElTiante


Sure Russia is lousy with resources, but its population is crashing. What's worse (for them), anyone with some smarts and or ambition moves somewhere it doesn't get to -50 in winter.

I work in IT for a large US defense contractor (non military work) and we have lot of smart Russian (and Chinese) emigrants working for us.
The plain fact is, the US is a nicer (and warmer) place to live than Russia and that's not going to change. Don't believe me? Ask them.

[edit on 28-1-2006 by ElTiante]



Well dont forget that these -50 degrees have saved us from a lot of trouble througth out the history



Maybe so, but it still sucks, and most people given a choice, wouldn't live in those conditions.



posted on Jan, 28 2006 @ 11:46 PM
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The PAK-FA Is a joke. In no way can they possibly plan to match the JSF technologically or in exports.

No country has half the military technology or know-how of the U.S.

Not being nationalistic, I'm being factual.



posted on Jan, 29 2006 @ 07:27 AM
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Originally posted by ElTiante

Originally posted by tomcat ha
Its a question of time when Russia has enough money to do advanced projects. Russia is huge and has allot of resources.


Sure Russia is lousy with resources, but its population is crashing. What's worse (for them), anyone with some smarts and or ambition moves somewhere it doesn't get to -50 in winter.

I work in IT for a large US defense contractor (non military work) and we have lot of smart Russian (and Chinese) emigrants working for us.

The plain fact is, the US is a nicer (and warmer) place to live than Russia and that's not going to change. Don't believe me? Ask them.

[edit on 28-1-2006 by ElTiante]


True but that is now. I think in the future Russia will grow powerfull again and living conditions will improve. It is not like entire Russia is cold either



posted on Jan, 29 2006 @ 04:21 PM
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Huh? Russia's climate won't improve unless it's somehow moved 1000 miles south.

See, the thing about America is it offer almost every type of climate / environment you can find on this planet. You like it hot? Cold? Wet? Dry? Oceans, mountains, deserts, forests, great cities, quite suburbs? We've got it. Oh, and Las Vegas!


In Russia you can have cold, very cold or very, very cold.

Russia is a dying place.

[edit on 29-1-2006 by ElTiante]



posted on Jan, 29 2006 @ 05:33 PM
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Originally posted by nightsd
The PAK-FA Is a joke. In no way can they possibly plan to match the JSF technologically or in exports.

No country has half the military technology or know-how of the U.S.

Not being nationalistic, I'm being factual.



Dont be so sure about the "Great" country of yours cause when the time comes you want believe your eyes of what my country can do



posted on Jan, 29 2006 @ 05:53 PM
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Originally posted by Russian Boy

Originally posted by nightsd
The PAK-FA Is a joke. In no way can they possibly plan to match the JSF technologically or in exports.

No country has half the military technology or know-how of the U.S.

Not being nationalistic, I'm being factual.



Dont be so sure about the "Great" country of yours cause when the time comes you want believe your eyes of what my country can do


Send your people to its death, and ultimate destruction of your country?


The only thing that is keeping Russia considered a powerhouse is its natural resources, and its nuclear arsenal. Other then that, I see nothing else.

[edit on 29-1-2006 by LazyD]



posted on Jan, 29 2006 @ 07:55 PM
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And by the way, apart from their small arms, what exactly is "battle proven" about Russian arms? Every time they've faced stuff made in America, the end result is a lot of Russian scrap

[edit on 29-1-2006 by ElTiante]



posted on Jan, 29 2006 @ 09:24 PM
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As I said, a lot a of smart-aleck new blood on ATS. Well, good thing ATS ain't a 'yankee only' site.
FYI the only Russian equipment the US of A has ever faced, has been at the hands of incompetent middle-eastern/North African countries, and east european minnows. And in both cases the odds were very well known.
There are many countries that use russian tech, to great success in theatres, against US tech. some IMO have the ability to tweak Russian equipment so that they can use is it to a better extent than the russians themselves. Nothing new abt that, IDF-IAF is a case in point vis-a-vis american equipment.
I feel that Iran, might be another case in point. If war comes to Iran, we shall all find out.



posted on Jan, 30 2006 @ 01:42 AM
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Look at the numbers.

Even a couple of years ago the Russians were ahead of the US in arms exports -

news.bbc.co.uk...

- obviously they are lower now, but considering the relative size of their economy, the Russians punch way above their weight. The UK and France are also notorious arms exporters.
Interestingly, China features mainly as the biggest arms importer, but when they switch into being a new exporter the balance will change.
I suspect Russia will be more in the business selling expertise and licensing production, becoming the R&D centre rather than manufacturing base.

The US is majorly handicapped by rules about what can be exported to whom. In the long run, this may have the ironic effect of wiping out much of the local industry or making it uncompetitive.





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