The China Problem.

China has a problem that will prevent it from ever being a super power.

Too many people with a centralized economy.

The people of China are not independent of eachother, they rely on the success of their central government, but if for instance the US destroyed their largest dam, China would be ruined.

Massive flooding killing tens of millions, disease killing tens of millions more, logistics disaster, food destroyed, energy gone.

How could they fight a war against a nation that can constantly strike them, regardless of what of the US they destroy, when they have to manage so many civilians?

So they can HAVE a 300 million man Army, but can they FIELD such an Army? No.

So they HAVE Nukes, but enough? NO!

They have 30 warheads capable of hitting the US...the US can pulverize China into oblivion with their Nuclear Capability.

that is interesting... i think that if for some odd reson china and america were to go to war then we (america) would win and kill millions of poor inoceiont people and then... america would implode becasue protesters and the government have completely different views....... OR we would all hate china and loose most of our chinese made products stopped coming and we failed econmicly.......... i am sad now

--YOURS TRULY--

cooldude76

Economy is a temporary thing, China isn't that important. China knows this, that is why they still have a policy of "irredentism".

Whens your book dated? 1960s-70s? . I read the title of this thread and i thought there was serious thought being done. then i read the first line . my mistake

Originally posted by Stratrf_Rus
Too many people with a centralized economy.

Of thats right, The western investment in china is government, the market reforms in 1979 are not real the chinese economy trading by market prices is not real?. China hasn't been a centralized economy since 80s . prices in china are traded according to market deand. the government only controls some prices like oil and helps regulates some resources

The people of China are not independent of eachother, they rely on the success of their central government

yup... all is true

US destroyed their largest dam, China would be ruined.Massive flooding killing tens of millions, disease killing tens of millions more, logistics disaster, food destroyed, energy gone.

If it was so easy it would already have happened. The Three gorges there is to provide another source of engery instead of coal power plants, But it is only in central china not the whole of china. sure it will have some effect on other places but china will crash because of this flood?. Sure engery will be lost from its production but it will only supply 1-10% of chinas energy(figure im not sure of projected vs now)

The three gorges dam was built with a nuclear attack in mid. It has other out let post which will prevent massive flooding since it releases the water in different directions. It is also protected againest natural disaters like earthquakes or a break in the dam

They have 30 warheads capable of hitting the US...the US can pulverize China into oblivion with their Nuclear Capability.

Yes with those 30 missiles we have a combined total of 150 megatons of nuclear engery which leads to thedestruction of a lot of american cities and the pollution of the american continent.

And when america "pulverizes" china it will cause the pollutiopn of the entire earth. lose lose for everyone

Originally posted by chinawhite
Whens your book dated? 1960s-70s? . I read the title of this thread and i thought there was serious thought being done. then i read the first line . my mistake

Originally posted by Stratrf_Rus
Too many people with a centralized economy.

Of thats right, The western investment in china is government, the market reforms in 1979 are not real the chinese economy trading by market prices is not real?. China hasn't been a centralized economy since 80s . prices in china are traded according to market deand. the government only controls some prices like oil and helps regulates some resources

The people of China are not independent of eachother, they rely on the success of their central government

yup... all is true

US destroyed their largest dam, China would be ruined.Massive flooding killing tens of millions, disease killing tens of millions more, logistics disaster, food destroyed, energy gone.

If it was so easy it would already have happened. The Three gorges there is to provide another source of engery instead of coal power plants, But it is only in central china not the whole of china. sure it will have some effect on other places but china will crash because of this flood?. Sure engery will be lost from its production but it will only supply 1-10% of chinas energy(figure im not sure of projected vs now)

The three gorges dam was built with a nuclear attack in mid. It has other out let post which will prevent massive flooding since it releases the water in different directions. It is also protected againest natural disaters like earthquakes or a break in the dam

They have 30 warheads capable of hitting the US...the US can pulverize China into oblivion with their Nuclear Capability.

Yes with those 30 missiles we have a combined total of 150 megatons of nuclear engery which leads to thedestruction of a lot of american cities and the pollution of the american continent.

And when america "pulverizes" china it will cause the pollutiopn of the entire earth. lose lose for everyone

You must be disillusioned by your Government's claims.

First: China is a command-economy which has survived only because of the US's generous attachment of the Yu (or whatever your inferior currency is) to the Dollar at a fixed rate.

Second: China's reforms by adding free-market special economic zones and by localizing the command economy to be more "compartmentalized" for bureaucratic purposes does not change the fact that there are sever logistic problems that such a State can not cope with in the event of modern total-war.

Also, allowing for competition in pricing does not change the fact that most everything is state-owned and thus production is controlled by Centralized Bureaucracy.

Russia realized these flaws and left the command economy for hopes of at least a market economy.

China refuses to realize this because then China would fly apart, fall apart, be destroyed, it would be in utter ruin. So long as the US props them up...they will thrive.

Thirdly:

The Three Gorges Dam is a vital security risk to China, 40 million plus people live down stream of the Dam and major cities feed on its waters. It tames the Middle River whose flooding has been the "sorrow of China" for millenia. The release of the Dam's consequent lake would utterly destroy everyone in the path, bring pestilence and disease and would cause a major disaster in central China all the way to the sea. Drainages will not be enough and the entire area where the water will go will be flooded...that only increases the area of flood damage.

It may be protected from Natural Disasters but a Nuclear bomb will blow it open real fast.

With 30 missiles you have a combined total of at most 22.5 Megatons of explosives.

30 Warheads can destroy approximately greater LA, which I am sure most of America would be happier without.

And it is not a deterrance, nor ever will be...due to China's policy of Nuclear weapons.

The US doctrine is to Nuke China immediately if they so much as go to any war that won't last 30 minutes (like a skirmish over Taiwan).

Nor would that amount of Nukes cause much in the damage of the environment when you figure that a 2 Megaton Nuclear weapon during 40mph winds will only irradiate an area of about 100 miles down-wind.

The fact your weapons are at 750KT limits restricts the amount of devestation by fall-out, so there'd be relatively little large-scale impact...the US would feel your wrath, and then forget it a decade later.

I see Chinas greatest strength its massive population as its greatest weakness in the long run.

Its growing energy and food requirements are going to be a huge problem in the future. You already see china investing lots of money in things like GE rice which they hope will have massive yeilds in the future to help cope with it.

Currently China is the greatest importer of Rice in the world.

It comes from California.

Without California's rice, famine would destroy China: I forgot to mention this.

Let sleeping "giants" lie.

1) Both Countries are Very dependent on Each other.

The US grows China's infrastructure. China Builds the US's Cheap Goods.

China still needs To Grow, And has Hostile Neighbors with a Grudge. (Note: Read the recent Sino Wars.)

The US is bogged down in Iraq, And can’t Get its act straight.

Neither can afford a war at this time.

2)Lets say, Both Go to war. Then You have to Galvanize the “Citizens” for War. Neither of which are ready for war on such epic proportions.

China has a new taste of limited Freedom, And does not want to give that up. The US Can’t Even persecute Enemy combatants. Without a Citizen outcry.

3)Lets just paint the True picture. The World’s Most armed populace vrs. The world’s Most “populace” nation. And Then you have to Cross 2,000 miles of Ocean to get There.

The sure logistics of That is sure to make either Country Bankrupt.

4) The US fought two Wars next to China. And lost. (And we will lose again.)

I hate to tell you this. But the Only Country to ever defeat the US. Well, is ourselves. We limit ourselves to “civilized” warfare, And then self Destruct if we go outside those bounds.

Sure we could wipe China off the map. But the US politicians would need to be fired\silenced, The Military put in charge. And all US citizens against the War. Be deported, imprisoned or simply killed. (like WWII)

Japan won Because they were ruthless, We Became ruthless Back. And Won. We had the will and the power to Bomb\invade Japan back to the stone Age. (And In Korea we Could have But presidential politics disarmed the Armed Forces. Macarthur was used to total control, And threatened to Nuke the Manchurian Bases. And then was fired for his “nonsense”.)

Now we can’t Even Make a few Muslims naked without the Fear of public outcry.

5) Both Countries know the Other has enough power to Annihilate each other. When you talk about Nuclear weapons thousands of times more powerful then the WWII models. With numbers in the thousands. And then you talking About Mutual Suicide on a global scale.

(self Educate yourselves.)
www.gensuikin.org...

Originally posted by Stratrf_Rus
30 Warheads can destroy approximately greater LA, which I am sure most of America would be happier without.

And it is not a deterrance, nor ever will be...due to China's policy of Nuclear weapons.

The US doctrine is to Nuke China immediately if they so much as go to any war that won't last 30 minutes (like a skirmish over Taiwan).

All three statements are bogus.. fariytales..
Especially the last one..
If the US does that, americans will be kicked out of every country in the world.
You'll see anti -americanism like it was never before, and now its pretty bad..

Originally posted by Daedalus3

Originally posted by Stratrf_Rus
30 Warheads can destroy approximately greater LA, which I am sure most of America would be happier without.

And it is not a deterrance, nor ever will be...due to China's policy of Nuclear weapons.

The US doctrine is to Nuke China immediately if they so much as go to any war that won't last 30 minutes (like a skirmish over Taiwan).

All three statements are bogus.. fariytales..
Especially the last one..
If the US does that, americans will be kicked out of every country in the world.
You'll see anti -americanism like it was never before, and now its pretty bad..

Firstly, China has only 30 ICBMs capable of hitting the US...so yes that's very true.

The US Nuclear Posture has become more vague since Bush has changed teh Triad to a more conventional//defensive role but China still understands that the US will not be dragged into any conflicts with them that would be remotely to their advantage (that is we will use the most extreme force possible).

Originally posted by Stratrf_Rus
You must be disillusioned by your Government's claims.

Australia?

First: China is a command-economy which has survived only because of the US's generous attachment of the Yu (or whatever your inferior currency is) to the Dollar at a fixed rate.

Now its on a basket of currencies and is not collapsing. Why is that? the US still be generous?.

command economy as defined by dictionary.com
"An economy that is planned and controlled by a central administration"

Market Economy as defined by dictionary.com
"An economic system in which economic decisions and the pricing of goods and services are guided solely by the aggregate interactions of a country's citizens and businesses and there is little government intervention or central planning"

Wait a second. If the prices of chinas goods are not made by the central government isn't that a market economy. Im not sure about those meanings you have another meaning for that? China still has economic plans but they are not econoic as in production of goods but levels of education levels of power and these goals they reach by end of that period.

The chinese government subsidizes petrol prices and electricty but in no way are prices planned for trading

State can not cope with in the event of modern total-war.

How long are you planning to fight this total war?. Even if chinas resources worked work out to the best of expectations it could not produce 100s of planes or 100hundreds of tanks overnight. Modern aircraft and modern weaponary require more than the average computer to assemble. Can americans produce massive amounts of weapons during "modern warfare"

Also, allowing for competition in pricing does not change the fact that most everything is state-owned and thus production is controlled by Centralized Bureaucracy.

Yes yes yes that is true.......Wait a minute, why are those westerners inspecting those blue prints for a factory or why is toyota setting up another factory. China brought those compaines i presume

The Three Gorges Dam is a vital security risk to China, 40 million plus people live down stream of the Dam and major cities feed on its waters. It tames the Middle River whose flooding has been the "sorrow of China" for millenia. The release of the Dam's consequent lake would utterly destroy everyone in the path, bring pestilence and disease and would cause a major disaster in central China all the way to the sea.

The sorrow of china is the yellow river up north. No where near the three gorges dam. Like i said when you build something as huge as the three gorges dam you have saftey measures. This are all factored into during the design and construction work. While you are still under the assumtion that it will just roll over and die when hit

Three Gorges Dam Able to Withstand Attack of Conventional Arms

It may be protected from Natural Disasters but a Nuclear bomb will blow it open real fast.

And a nuclear response will equal a nuclear response. Why would it matter anymore after being nuked

With 30 missiles you have a combined total of at most 22.5 Megatons of explosives.

Are you kidding?. Chinas nuclear warheads are 5 megatons each. China did only make a H-bomb in 1967. Wheres your figures from?

30 Warheads can destroy approximately greater LA, which I am sure most of America would be happier without.

Yeah yeah yeah...talk talk talk. A 5 megaton warhead will wipe out the city of LA which is all that is needed. 10mile radius(?) Target 30 indiuval cities and we have a large amount of causulties

The US doctrine is to Nuke China immediately if they so much as go to any war that won't last 30 minutes (like a skirmish over Taiwan).

And please tell me the locations of chinas missiles?. China has three missile ranges with each 1000km of tunnels and a large amount of dummy silos. The US would have to hit every single one of them to ensure victory. That alone will lead to a nuclear winter . Half of chinas ICBMs are located in silos while the other half are road moblie or hidden somewhere else. Each missile site holds only 4 missiles each.

But when you consider chinas regioal missile capability. We can use 400 warheads on US bases and US fleets or Bases in other countries. Now can you estimate the amount of fallout that would equal. The more you use the more you will suffer

Nor would that amount of Nukes cause much in the damage of the environment when you figure that a 2 Megaton Nuclear weapon during 40mph winds will only irradiate an area of about 100 miles down-wind.

Not actually. Chinas nuclear weapons added a layer of highly reactive materials in them to make them more deadly. Im not sure it this layer is still in place or taken out after the cold war. But when you use a nuclear bomb it will get into the water sustesm and eventually th ocean causing fish to die out and pollution. etc a chain effect of factors.

The fact your weapons are at 750KT limits restricts the amount of devestation by fall-out,

750Kt?. Where'd you get that figure from? Chinas nuclear missiles are currently not MIRV and carry one very large warhead. Chinas nuclear weapons are all in the megatons

Originally posted by msnevil

4) The US fought two Wars next to China. And lost. (And we will lose again.)

The US already fought a war with China and fought them to a stalemate. We call it the Korean war (which was a clear stalemate) but dont let the name fool you we fought the Chinese millions of them. N Korea had its butt kicked right up the peninsula until China stepped in.

During the War the US flew in about 7 Atomic bombs and was getting ready to drop them on China if things got out of hand.

I agree with your overall statement though the "Red dragon" and the "Giant" depend too much on each other in trade and a war would be horrendous for both sides.

Originally posted by ShadowXIX
we fought the Chinese millions of them.

But the thing was there were millions of us but millions of you. This does not factor in the US had air superioty during the whole war and the naval situation was a no brainer.

During the whole war china only roated 2million men

"So if any country becomes conventionally superior to the US, and happens to get into the skirmish(es) with the US, thus maybe putting the US on the back foot, the the US will nuke it to kingdom come??"

Hell if the US has such policies, I say let EVERY freakin country in the world have nukes, big ones, all on ICBMs and keep em' pointed at the US.
Screw the NPT, and let every country protect itself from above quoted US hegemonistic policy.

Daedalus3,

Your right. .My opinoin is this guy is nuts. He started three threads already some of them he is using is not logically sound

[edit on 25-1-2006 by chinawhite]

Originally posted by Stratrf_Rus
With 30 missiles you have a combined total of at most 22.5 Megatons of explosives.

30 Warheads can destroy approximately greater LA, which I am sure most of America would be happier without.

You got a source to back up that statement?

let me guess you have a ph.d in nuclear science and are currently on the dark side of the moon ?

sorry my sarcasm

I see Russia and China fighting it out before the US and China do, who is to say that the US and China arent secrectly allies?

Just think what a Sino-AMerican alliance could bring china with the man power and the US with the tech. Russia wouldnt stand a chance agianst that, we should be more worried about Putin and the other wantabe Czars trying to regain the terrority lost in the break up.

Originally posted by chinawhite

Originally posted by ShadowXIX
we fought the Chinese millions of them.

But the thing was there were millions of us but millions of you. This does not factor in the US had air superioty during the whole war and the naval situation was a no brainer.

During the whole war china only roated 2million men

You need to learn about a man named "Chesty" Puller, he was surrounded by 21 or 22 Chinese Divisions (just his 1 Marine Division...11,000 men against about 100,000) and he kicked their ass.

This is where the famous phrase:

"We've got them right where we want them, all around us so we can shoot in every direction!"

-came from.

China does have only 30 ICBMs that can reach the US source: fas-nuke.

30 warheads of about 750 kt could barely destroy the LA vicinity. rough estimation is 1MT = 1 mile radious of destruction. That drops off after 2 MT.

Thus...60pix0.75^2= ~~188 sq. miles.

LA itself is 400 sq. miles approx.

Now, I don't agree with some of the things Stratrf_Rus has said but no one can deny that this statement is not absolutely true. If you are going to get into a war then you have to be prepared to win it, by any means, the sooner one realizes this the less lives you are going to loose, and the shorter the war will be.

I hate to tell you this. But the Only Country to ever defeat the US. Well, is ourselves. We limit ourselves to “civilized” warfare, And then self Destruct if we go outside those bounds.

Sure we could wipe China off the map. But the US politicians would need to be fired\silenced, The Military put in charge. And all US citizens against the War. Be deported, imprisoned or simply killed. (like WWII)

Japan won Because they were ruthless, We Became ruthless Back. And Won. We had the will and the power to Bomb\invade Japan back to the stone Age. (And In Korea we Could have But presidential politics disarmed the Armed Forces. Macarthur was used to total control, And threatened to Nuke the Manchurian Bases. And then was fired for his “nonsense”.)

Now we can’t Even Make a few Muslims naked without the Fear of public outcry.

Originally posted by Stratrf_Rus
You need to learn about a man named "Chesty" Puller, he was surrounded by 21 or 22 Chinese Divisions (just his 1 Marine Division...11,000 men against about 100,000) and he kicked their ass.

You mean the battle of Chosin Reservoir?.

If we got our asses kicked, why was the UN(US) forced to withdraw?. . It was Americas longest retreat in history. But no we chinese still got our asses kicked

Here is the quote from the commander of the 1st marine division
""Retreat, hell! We just got here!""

But it was something like those numbers you mentioned but also the 5 or so carriers and the large amount of naval ships and ground based planes on the US side. One hell of a victory to the chinese which were equipped with the 6.5mm Arisaka which has been proven to be a piece of #

30 warheads of about 750 kt could barely destroy the LA vicinity. rough estimation is 1MT = 1 mile radious of destruction. That drops off after 2 MT.

Where you getting your information from?. This is for a 1MT radius hit.

Why are you still sticking to the 750KT figure?. FAS.org states 2MT while other websites states 3-5MT

• About 20 DF-5 ICBMs with a range of 13,000 kilometers, a payload of 3,200 kilograms, and a warhead yield of 4-5 megatons.

www.thebulletin.org...

Standard warhead yield: 3,300 KT.

www.astronautix.com...

The fission bomb detonated over Hiroshima had an explosive blast equivalent to 12,500 tons of TNT. A 1 megaton hydrogen bomb, hypothetically detonated on the earth's surface, has about 80 times the blast power of that 1945 explosion.

Radius of destructive circle: 1.7 miles
12 pounds per square inch

At the center lies a crater 200 feet deep and 1000 feet in diameter. The rim of this crater is 1,000 feet wide and is composed of highly radioactive soil and debris. Nothing recognizable remains within about 3,200 feet (0.6 miles) from the center, except, perhaps, the remains of some buildings' foundations. At 1.7 miles, only some of the strongest buildings -- those made of reinforced, poured concrete -- are still standing. Ninety-eight percent of the population in this area are dead.

Radius: 2.7 miles
5 psi

Virtually everything is destroyed between the 12 and 5 psi rings. The walls of typical multi-story buildings, including apartment buildings, have been completely blown out. The bare, structural skeletons of more and more buildings rise above the debris as you approach the 5 psi ring. Single-family residences within this this area have been completely blown away -- only their foundations remain. Fifty percent of the population between the 12 and 5 psi rings are dead. Forty percent are injured.

Radius: 4.7 miles
2 psi

Any single-family residences that have not been completely destroyed are heavily damaged. The windows of office buildings have been blown away, as have some of their walls. The contents of these buildings' upper floors, including the people who were working there, are scattered on the street. A substantial amount of debris clutters the entire area. Five percent of the population between the 5 and 2 psi rings are dead. Forty-five percent are injured.

Radius: 7.4 miles
1 psi

Residences are moderately damaged. Commercial buildings have sustained minimal damage. Twenty-five percent of the population between the 2 and 1 psi rings have been injured, mainly by flying glass and debris. Many others have been injured from thermal radiation -- the heat generated by the blast. The remaining seventy-five percent are unhurt.

www.pbs.org...

[edit on 25-1-2006 by chinawhite]