Canadian Politics: Predictions of the new parliament.

I'm not a political expert, but I just wanted for us to try and predict how the new parliament will look like.

There are 308 seats in parliament I predict that the seats will be distributed like this.

Conservative Party: 115

Liberal Party: 106

Bloc Québécois: 60

New Democratic Party: 25

Other: 2

How do you guys predict the turn out will be?

I believe it could swing either way, but from the earlier responses on the news there seems to be a lot of "we need a change". Whether that translates to Conservative votes, NDP votes or Green or independent, I have no real idea. It seems to be swinging the Conservative way and I really. really hope it is a conservative minority. I don't really trust the party from the Mulrony years, even with the Liberal corruption as comparison. And being such a divided party in the past with the Reform rejoining the Conservative ranks I just don't know what they will try to do. Whatever party gets in will be severely constricted by the past budgets and what is being phased in over the next few years. This I don't think that Mr. Harper has considered. He seems to think there is enough budgetary surplus floating around that he won't have to worry about what it costs to run the government as soon as he steps in, just the plans that he wants to make ,
which is a little scary.

Sorry for the rant.

NDP! NDP! What do you mean they don't have enough representatives to form a government? then what the heck am I voting for them for?
Anyway everybody go out and vote!

Looks like all of the news organizations are predicting a big Conservative win.

So how many states do you think they'll split Canada up into? No doubt Quebec will split, so I'd say about 6. They'll probably just merge the Maritimes into one state, and do the same with Yukon/Nunavut. The probably won't want to merge Alberta, Sask, and Manitoba to give them more pull in the US Senate.

Flinx, It takes more than a federal election to split up a country. A referendum would have to be held before a provence can break off.

Aslo, what do you mean by more pull in the US Senate? You believe that those provences will become American states?? That is something that will never happen.

Umbrax, no, I don't seriously think Canadian provinces will really would become states, I was just making a rather snarky joke. By more pull in the senate I meant that each state gets 2 senators no matter how small their population.

I do worry that a Conservative majority government threaten's Canada's....individuality. Not being a fan of the Bush admin, I worry when I see a "Neo-con"-friendly group being installed in a country that I admire and was considering moving to. Canada is noted for their social freedoms and openness and I wonder how far to the right Harper will take the country. Ah well, who knows? Only time will tell.

If he takes us to far to the right then he'll get kicked out of office next election right quick. That is IF he gets elected.

[edit on 23-1-2006 by sardion2000]

Ah, sorry Flinx. I'm just in a pissy mood I should of known you were kidding.

I see a Tory minority. I see the Bloc losing ground and the NDP picking up steam. If Layton plays thing right, he'll do even better in the next election, in about 1 year.

Conservatives-156

Liberlals-86

NDP-26

BQ-38

Other-2

I predict with a majority, this will be one of the most efficient, honest and steady run government we have seen in a very long time.

We will have a strong leader with principle and integrity and who will put the interests of this country first and foremost.

During this election, he has demonstrated the ability as opposition leader to bring unity to this country more than most in the position of actual Prime Minister.

He certainly deserves the benefit of the doubt.

No fear here

There are more undecided voters than is generally known. It'll be a minority government IMHO.

Conservative - 135

Liberal - 91

Bloc - 56

NDP - 26

Because of the effectiveness of the Liberal ad campaign, I see a Conservative minority much the way Umbrax has it laid out. It will pull the teeth out of whatever truly right-wing asperations they may have had going into this election.
The Liberal party will get the swift kick they so richly deserved after all the red book promises they failed to deliver on as well as the scandals.

The Tory ad campaign was listless, with the one exception...that 5 second shot of Dingwall throwing his hands up and saying " I'm entitled to my entitlements" while wearing that smug grin on his face. Man, I still get riled when I see that.

The NDP ran the best campaign, IMO...keeping to their platform without slinging too much muck. I dunno, though...he looks too much like Ned Flanders and that's gonna cost them.

What irks me most about this election was the way the Greens were ignored. It's too bad because I believe every-one is going to be shocked at how well they're going to do. Don't get me wrong, I'd be surprised to see them get a seat in Parliament, but their popularity is going to sky-rocket.

Kudos to every Canadian that got off their butt to vote today and for every one that didn't bother...well...I've only got one thing to say to them...

.

I think Umbrax posted some good numbers. I have no idea where this election is going to go.

I didnt vote today...... shhhhhhhh

According to the 2006 Election Stock Market , it will go as follows:

Conservatives: 127

Liberals: 93

NDP: 33

Bloc: 54

Other: 1

Pretty small sample so it probably isn't too reliable, though.

About the same as Umbrax said. It seems to be the general consensus that the Conservatives are going to win. Just depends on how much they win by.

Wikipedia also seems to be keeping a relatively up-to-date page on how things are going.

Prelim results will also be available at 10 PM EST on www.elections.ca

[edit on 23-1-2006 by Yarcofin]

CBC is calling for a Conservative Minority Gov't. The only question they are asking is who is going to hold the balance of power. My money is on the NDP. I hope that Indie Shock Jock doesn't get it :shudder:

The final results:



Conservative Party: 124

Liberal Party: 103

Bloc Québécois: 51

New Democratic Party: 29

Other: 1


I was sort of in the neighborhood

Originally posted by Otts
There are more undecided voters than is generally known. It'll be a minority government IMHO.

Conservative - 135

Liberal - 91

Bloc - 56

NDP - 26

Good guess Otts.

Tory Blue and Loving It.....

Your numbers were pretty darn close, Umbrax

I expected a better Conservative showing but I think they did pretty good.

Overall I'm pretty happy with the results. We'll see what happens from here on in.