War In Nagorno Karabakh Can Start At Any Moment, page 3
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reply posted on 15-3-2008 @ 04:39 PM by Hellmutt
Azerbaijan to re-examine its relations with US, France and Russia

Azerbaijan is angry at France, Russia and the US, and warned that they'll re-examine its relations to these countries. The reason is that they voted against a UN resolution to demand the "immediate, complete and unconditional" withdrawal of all Armenian forces from Nagorno-Karabakh.


RFE/RL: Azerbaijan Criticizes France, Russia, U.S Over Karabakh Resolution


March 15, 2008


Azerbaijan has warned that Baku will re-examine its relations with France, Russia and the United States after the three countries voted against a UN motion on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

The UN General Assembly on March 14 adopted a non-binding resolution demanding the "immediate, complete and unconditional" withdrawal of all Armenian forces from Azerbaijan's territory.

Thirty nine countries voted in favor. But more than 100 countries abstained.
Seven countries, however, including Russia, the United States, and France, voted against.

[---]

In a statement released on March 15, the Russian foreign ministry criticized the resolution, saying that its "basic principles...meet only the interests of Azerbaijan."

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.



reply posted on 11-8-2008 @ 09:18 PM by Hellmutt
War In Nagorno Karabakh Soon?

Because of the recent developments in Georgia, the risk of war over Nagorno Karabakh has increased. If Azerbaijan were to try to take Nagorno Karabakh back by force (like Georgia just did in South Ossetia), Russia would support Armenia.


Experts: “In case official Baku attempts to ensure its territorial integrity, Russia will take analogous steps against Azerbaijan”


11 Aug 2008


Military expert Yashar Jafarli stated that Azerbaijan would also join process, if situation continued in the region.
“Russia tried to start military operations beforehand. Armenia along with Russia participates in operations in Georgia. Participation of Azerbaijan in the process will be unavoidable”, he said. Same danger is expected by Azerbaijan as well.
“Russia gets irritated about economic increase of Azerbaijan. Russia can attack on Azerbaijan any time”, he said.

Experts thought that if official Baku wanted to ensure its territorial integrity in Nagorno Karabakh, Russia would take analogical steps against Azerbaijan as well. Military expert Mammadov added that Russia had 10 military scenarios on Nagorno Karabakh.
“Georgia cannot be remained alone in the struggle against separatists and their supporter Russia”, he said.
Isazadeh stressed that same scenario would be applied to Nagorno Karabakh. To him, irrespective of Russia’s direct interference in Nagorno Karabakh, it will render assistance to Armenia.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.

Armenia and Azerbaijan is still formally at war with each other. The BTC pipeline starts in Baku, Azerbaijan.


reply posted on 14-8-2008 @ 03:48 AM by pause4thought
Credit goes to rixhell for posting this link in the 'Russia/Georgia Situation News & Updates' thread:

www.anspress.com...

Armenian Forces violated cease-fire in several directions.
Armenian Forces violated cease-fire on August 12 and 13. Units of the Armenian Army near Paravakar village of Ijevan region, Armenia, shelled at positions of the Azerbaijani Army on unnamed heights of Gazakh region, Azerbaijan. Armenian Forces also opened machine and submachine gun fire from positions in occupied Garvand village of Fuzuli, Goyarkh village of Terter regions of Azerbaijan at opposite positions of the Azerbaijani Army. No casualties are reported.




reply posted on 15-8-2008 @ 03:13 PM by pause4thought
Here are a couple of other things rixhell dug up (he knows I'm posting here):

Azeri hostage released: www.anspress.com...

Armenians accused of widespread arson attacks: www.anspress.com...

Things seem to be smouldering in more senses than one.

Not sure what to make of this:

Google Censors Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan maps

Another piece to the puzzle? A sign the conflict in Georgia & the brewing conflict with Iran may be somehow connected?


reply posted on 22-8-2008 @ 02:01 PM by Hellmutt
Nagorno Karabakh to be recognized on August 25?

Seems like Russia and Armenia is to recognize Nagorno Karabakh, South Ossetia and Abkhazia on August 25! What about Transnistria, will they go for independence too? Will this trigger the war in Azerbaijan and more war in Georgia?



Nagorno Karabakh can be recognized by Armenia simultaneously with Russia recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia


08/22/20


According to a REGNUM European diplomatic information source, the official Yerevan may recognize the independence of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic on August 25. “There is apprehension that Yerevan may recognize Nagorno Karabakh independence simultaneously with Russia recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia,” the source said.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.



reply posted on 22-8-2008 @ 02:24 PM by pause4thought
reply to post by Hellmutt


Just when we thought it was safe to breathe a sigh of relief the reality kicks in. Other brewing conflicts are poised to take centre stage.

I echo ben's sentiments entirely. This thread is one of the most informative I've ever come across on ATS.


reply posted on 23-8-2008 @ 03:12 PM by maloy
Actually I don't see Russia recognizing Nagorno-Krabakh. Russia does not want to ruin relations with Azerbaijan, and unlike S.Ossetia and Abkhazia Russia has always been somewhat aside during the Nagorno-Krabakh conflict. It has been indirectly helping both the Armenians and the Azeris. And now, if war breaks out there, it will be nearly impossible for Russia to send any type of military aid to the region. Georgia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan will not allow Russia in their airspace. Iran could, but it would be a logistical nightmare.

Plus Azerbaijan government is not as politically hostile to Russia as Saakashvilli was. It looks like Aliyev is still partially neutral between Russia and U.S., and is keeping open ties with Russia.

As for Armenia - it is in no position to declare Nagorno-Karabakh independent, thus starting a war there. This time Georgia will block any Russian aid to Armenia, and Armenia cannot afford to be blockaded by Turkey for economic reasons (like it had during the first war).



I think that if anyone wants to spark a war in Nagorno-Karabakh now it is the local separatists. The question is - will their provokation work (like S. Ossetian and Georgian provokation worked in S. Ossetia), and draw in Azerbaijan and Armenia, and in turn Russia and U.S.?

For now everyone will probably decide to lie low for a while. But a few years into the future - it could get very messy. Especially with the Caspian pipeline playing such a huge geopolitical role.

[edit on 23-8-2008 by maloy]


reply posted on 26-8-2008 @ 07:29 PM by Hellmutt
Here's from an Azeri source. If Armenia recognizes Nagorno Karabakh, Azerbaijan will attack.


Organization for Karabakh Liberation: "If Armenia tries to recognize "independence" of Nagorno Karabakh, Azerbaijan will have to initiate military actions against Armenians"


26 August 2008


"If Armenia, prompted by Russia, tries to recognize the so-called "independence" of the regime in Nagorno Karabakh, Azerbaijan should immediately start military actions against Armenia occupants.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.



reply posted on 8-10-2008 @ 10:11 PM by Hellmutt
There's a lot of interesting stuff about the Nagorno Karabakh conflict in this article.


Michael J. Totten: The Forgotten War

October 8, 2008



Though it is entirely dependent on Armenia for support, Nagorno Karabakh calls itself an independent republic. No country on earth recognizes its existence.

Even if you visit Armenia, you still have to get an additional visa in the capital Yerevan (the only place in the world you can get one) to visit Karabakh. If you go there, Azerbaijan will put you on a blacklist.

Armenia and Azerbaijan – including the Karabakh region – were ethnically mixed before the war started. Now, leaving aside individuals in mixed marriages, neither are. Ethnic cleansing in both countries was thorough.



reply posted on 10-10-2008 @ 09:52 PM by Hellmutt
Georgia Transit Ban

A Georgian transit ban gives Russia problems supplying its troops in Armenia. Even Russian civilian aircraft is banned from entering Georgian airspace. Armenia is "gasping for breath"...


EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Georgian Transit Ban Hinders Russian Military Presence in Armenia


10/10/08


Raising a serious obstacle to Russia’s military presence in Armenia, Georgia appears to have closed its airspace to transport planes making vital shipments to Russian troops stationed in the neighboring South Caucasus state.

[---]

They say the Russian military is now forced to re-route supplies to its base in Armenia via Iran and even Azerbaijan, which has long resented Moscow’s close defense links with its archenemy.

[---]

"Georgia no longer provides us with air corridors," Colonel Ashot Karapetian, deputy commander of the Russian military base in Armenia, told EurasiaNet. "Our supplies are now being carried out via Azerbaijan and Iran."

Karapetian described those supplies as erratic, saying that Russia secures over-flight permissions from these countries with "great difficulty."

[---]

A Russian diplomatic source confirmed the information. The Georgian ban, the source said, also applies to Russian civilian aircraft flying to and from Armenia.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.




reply posted on 11-10-2008 @ 09:34 PM by maloy
reply to post by Hellmutt


What Georgia doesn't realize, is how much this ban will hurt their relations with Armenia in the future. Georgia isn't hurting Russia much by these actions, but it is hurting Armenia. Georgia and Armenia have been friends and allies throughout history, and now this?


As for Russia supplying Armenia, can't it be done by air if its so urgent. I understand the rail transport has been interrupted and Georgian airspace closed off. But Russia can easily fly through Azerbaijan's or Iran's airspace to get to Armenia.

I suppose this is primarily about trade, not military necessities. Armenia does depend on that rail line. I suppose it would have to start forming closer economic ties with Iran now.


reply posted on 11-10-2008 @ 09:37 PM by Hellmutt
reply to post by maloy


They are already flying via Azerbaijan and Iran, but... as the article says: "Russia secures over-flight permissions from these countries with "great difficulty.""


reply posted on 11-10-2008 @ 09:47 PM by maloy
reply to post by Hellmutt


I understand the difficulty with Azerbaijan, but I don't see why Iran would mind. Iran always had good ties with Armenia, and I don't see why it would be opposed to Russian air transport.

By the way any news on the rail link with between Russia and Armenia? There are conflicting reports that Georgia closed it off or its still running on limited bases. But of course Russia probably can't use that for military supplies.

Also the Russia army contingent in Armenia isn't that numerous. I don't see the Russian troops having any urgency (food supplies) that Armenia can't fullfill.


Of course if there is any "good news" here - is that this means that a war in Nargo Karabakh is probably less likely. Armenia absolutely cannot afford this conflict right now, and it would be a suicide for it to start one. As for Azerbaijan - it would also not be a wise move to stir things up. Azerbaijan currently appears to be reevaluating its partnership with the US, and appears to want to improve relations with Russia. Hopefully there will be a thaw in the region.

[edit on 11-10-2008 by maloy]
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