posted on Aug, 23 2008 @ 03:12 PM
Actually I don't see Russia recognizing Nagorno-Krabakh. Russia does not want to ruin relations with Azerbaijan, and unlike S.Ossetia and Abkhazia
Russia has always been somewhat aside during the Nagorno-Krabakh conflict. It has been indirectly helping both the Armenians and the Azeris. And
now, if war breaks out there, it will be nearly impossible for Russia to send any type of military aid to the region. Georgia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan
will not allow Russia in their airspace. Iran could, but it would be a logistical nightmare.
Plus Azerbaijan government is not as politically hostile to Russia as Saakashvilli was. It looks like Aliyev is still partially neutral between
Russia and U.S., and is keeping open ties with Russia.
As for Armenia - it is in no position to declare Nagorno-Karabakh independent, thus starting a war there. This time Georgia will block any Russian
aid to Armenia, and Armenia cannot afford to be blockaded by Turkey for economic reasons (like it had during the first war).
I think that if anyone wants to spark a war in Nagorno-Karabakh now it is the local separatists. The question is - will their provokation work (like
S. Ossetian and Georgian provokation worked in S. Ossetia), and draw in Azerbaijan and Armenia, and in turn Russia and U.S.?
For now everyone will probably decide to lie low for a while. But a few years into the future - it could get very messy. Especially with the Caspian
pipeline playing such a huge geopolitical role.
[edit on 23-8-2008 by maloy]