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Governments of many countries (but not the United States,Australia, or Russia) signed the infamous Kyoto Protocol, which is aimed at the mandatory reduction of oil, coal, and gas combustion. Should this convention be universally implemented, the drop in world temperature would be hardly perceptible, but there would be a drastic and very noticeable regression in the economy.
In 2100, under the mandatory emission restrictions of the Kyoto Protocol, the temperature would be diminished by 0.2°C, or, to use the figures of the global warmers, with Kyoto, the temperature increase that we would experience in the year 2094, would be postponed until the year 2100. Thus, the Kyoto Protocol buys the world six years.7
This nuclear heat, however, plays a minor role among the terrestrial factors, in comparison with the “greenhouse effects” caused by absorption by some atmospheric gases of the solar radiation reflected from the surface of the Earth. Without the greenhouse effect, the average near-surface air temperature would be –18°C, and not +15°C, as it is now. The most important among these “greenhouse gases” is water vapor, which is responsible for about 96 to 99 percent of the greenhouse effect. Among the other greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, CFCs,N2O, and O3), the most important is CO2, which contributes only 3 percent to the total greenhouse effect.11, 12 The manmade CO2 contribution to this effect may be about 0.05 to 0.25 percent.13
During the Phanerozoic (the past 545 million years), the Earth passed through eight great climate cycles, each lasting 50 to 90 million years. Four of them (“Icehouses”) were about 4°C colder than the four warmer ones (“Greenhouses”).18
These long cycles were likely caused by passages of our Solar System through the spiral arms of the Milky Way. On its way, the Solar System passed through areas of intensive star creation, with frequent explosions of novas and supernovas. In these regions, the intensity of galactic cosmic radiation reaching the Earth is up to 100 times higher than average. The higher level of cosmic radiation in the Earth’s troposphere causes greater formation of clouds, which reflect the incoming solar radiation back into space. This results in a cooler climate. Then the Solar System travels to quieter areas where cosmic radiation is fainter, fewer clouds are formed in our troposphere, and the climate warms.18
In their meticulous study, Soonand Baliunas19, 20 criticized, in passing, the Mann et al. publications for improper calibration of the proxy data, and for statistical and other methodical errors. More in-depth and crushing criticisms of the work of Mann et al. were presented recently by McIntyre and McKitrick22 who demonstrated that the conclusions of Mann et al. are based on flawed calculations, incorrect data, and biased selection of the climatic record. Using the original data sets supplied to them by author Michael Mann, McIntyre and McKitrick discovered many mistakes in the Mann et al. papers—for example, allocating measurements to wrong years, filling tables with identical numbers for different proxies in different years, using obsolete data that have been revised by the original researchers, and so on. Typical of these “errors” was, for example, their stopping the central England temperature series, without explanation, at 1730, even though data are available back to 1659, thus hiding a major 17th Century cold period. McIntyre and McKitrick not only criticized the work done by Mann et al., but also, after correcting all errors, analyzed their data set using Mann’s own methodology. The result of this superseding study demonstrates that the 20th Century temperature has not been exceptional during the past 600 years.
Further, it demonstrates the falsity of the IPCC’s statement in its 2001 report, based on Mann et al., that the 1990s was “likely the warmest decade,” and 1998 the “warmest year of the millennium”
Since the exceptionally hot 1940s, until 1975, the Earth’s climate cooled down by about 0.3°C, despite a more than three-fold increase of annual industrial CO2 emission during this period. After 1975, eteorological station measurements indicated that the average global temperature started to rise again, despite the decline in “human” CO2 emissions. However, it turns out that it was probably a measuring artifact, brought about by the growth of the cities and resulting “urban heat island” effect. Meteorological stations, which used to be sited outside of urban centers, have been absorbed by the cities, where the temperature is higher than in the countryside.
Outside the cities of the United States and Europe, the observed temperature is lower, rather than higher, as demonstrated by the data of NASA’s Goddard Institute, reviewed recently by J. Daly