posted on Jan, 13 2006 @ 01:10 AM
I watched this show and I want to make something clear here:
This show was extremely skewed. It basically gave you a scenario where the virus mutation stayed in the same state as the current one (only now the
virus can go human to human) and also the scenario depicted had many gov. / org. efforts failling (almost all failling). Also, it depcited the virus
as completely unstopable and sugested the majority of people in N.A. were effected.
Basically, this is a wildly unlikely scenario for the following:
1) Most experts agree that the current mortality rates are extremely inaccurate and that if/when the virus mutates it will not be as deadly as in
it's current state.
2) Government efforts are going to be effective. The U.S. and Britain are taking huge steps. This alone makes it highly likely that the virus will not
be as wide spread as the show depicts. The spanish flu infected 30% of the population with very little cordination efforts to minimize infection and
3) WHO efforts and gov. efforts at quarantine will be effective. Remember SARS? It came and was contagious and was new. What happened? It was isolated
and never became a serious pandemic threat. It even reached N.A. and was isolated to one city and never moved.
4) Spread will be MUCH slower then TV show depicts. Remember, this is a flu people. When do flues do almost all of their spreading? During cold season
because we get runny noses, sore throats and dust in our noses which cause us to sneeze because we are indoors more (all of these activities spread
the flu). If the flu hits say in november, it has pretty much 30-60 days max to get here and cause us a major concern with spreading. Likely scenario:
the flu starts up, massive isolation effort insue, we slow it down from comming here until winter passes. We then make a vaccine (usually takes 6
months but with this kind of threat I bet it could be 3months probably), and we vacinate enough people who are at risk before the next winter season
Long story short: This program assumes many likely things which should occur dont. Making it not very accurate.