Originally posted by Neon Haze
A Global Pandemic Absolutely WILL Happen and there is nothing any of us can do to stop it at this stage.
A gobal pandemic, although in my opinion likely is not certain, as for preventing it, we can do an enormous amount but only with the help of goverment
and farming officials.
Once a strain of the virus has presented itself as the main contender and can be transmitted human to human, then and only then can we attempt to find
a vaccine. this will take at least six months after the first discovery.
Why six monthes? Some viruses can have a vaccine very quickly where as others can take a while, without knowing how it will mutate means that we
don't know how long a vaccine would take to develop. The more worrying problem is how to produce vast quantitys quickly.
Now Tamiflu tabs have only shown themselves to be only very slightly effective against bird flu and in most cases just slow down the inevitable.
Tamiflu despite the news reports has been very succesful, sadly bird flu has recently been evolving against this drug which is maybe where you got
this idea. The viatmanese cases are worrying but the majority of cases i don't believe have this resistance.
The real danger is that a human to human airborne strain of bird flu could mutate too quickly such as the HIV virus. This would really be a doomsday
virus as it would be virtually unstoppable.
This truly is a strange statement, every fast acting virus no matter what it is would eventually burn itself out. Even if the human race was badly
damaged then this would hardly be a doomsday virus. If it was spreading without alot of control then the goverments would advise staying at home. If
this was done then the decrease in the viruses chance to infect other people would be greatly reduced. I doubt that the human population would be
reduced to below 4 billion at the absolute worst. Obviously if the incubation period is quite long then the damage could be very high, but still this
wouldn't wipe out people to a doomsday level.
HIV is different becuase it can remain inactive in a body for a long time unlike the current strains of bird flu.
My best advice is to relax. Wait and see what will happen and prepare for the worst but don't worry too much though as medical science is the fastest
growing science.
Very good advice.
Personally, I believe we need a global pandemic as this will force us to develop much needed new drugs and cures... Such as Stem Cell Tech and even
more controversial techniques such as gene therapy to create longevity in the human race.
Anyone for a disease free world need only look at the magic bullet medicines that could be available should there be a real global microbial war.
I don't see how a virus pandemic will force through stem cell research, as for a disease free world, i think this is a very bad idea. A disease free
world would mean even less natural selection in the human race. Before travelling down the path of altering ourselves we should look at the current
studies showing how unpredictable gene therapy can be. Even if we could predict the short term effects of the first 200 years, how do we know what
would happen in a thousand years? Looking at gene therapy logically does worry me as we don't know what could happen a long time after.
Well that's my view.
[edit on 19-2-2006 by ImaginaryReality1984]
[edit on 19-2-2006 by ImaginaryReality1984]
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