posted on Jan, 11 2006 @ 08:55 PM
well, although I doubt the claim that most of Taiwan wants to re-unify, a seccesionist move is as likely as anything to kick off WW3.
For likely allies, look no further than other regional powers that have an interest in China being thwarted. Japan and South Korea come to mind.
(although getting those two over thier differences may be challenge enough) Singapore is in excellent position to be a support base, if things start
escalating out of theater.
For those likely to side with China, it's a bit more difficult to say. North Korea would probrably jump on any anti-US bandwagon they can find,
especially with their primary supporters. While in a full scale 1 on 1 war with the US N. Korea would be in serious trouble, in a multi-party war
involving China they've certainly got enough guns, rockets, and everything else pointing at South Korea to keep the US pretty tightly tied up there.
By no means an insignifigant contribution, especially if the main theater shifts to the Korean peninsula.
India and Pakistan probrably would stay out of the fight. freinds are nice, but friends that get you into nuclear shootouts I think they could do
without. It's in thier mutual self interest not to get involved. Venezuala is just as likely to say "no thanks" to getting involved. European
involvment should occur on the US side, but I cannot see many European countries outside the UK going really gung-ho into a potentially nuclear
Now Russia becomes a VERY interesting potential antagonist. I do not see them getting worked up and going into WW3 just to try and get China 1 little
island. However, getting involved with the Korean War, part two, is another matter. Russia becomes the true wild card in this match-up, who's
involvement depends entirely on the success of diplomacy to keep them out, or the actions of others to draw them in. The only thing I see for Russia
to gain out of the whole mess is to try and act as the peace broker, much as the US did in the middle east after the Arabs and Isrealees started
shooting at eachother. (thereby displacing the others as a regional power)
As for Nukes, I do not hink any country would use nukes over the fate of Taiwan. However, any country that has them may use them if thier own fate is
on the line. Which makes the most likely user of a nuclear weapon in a Taiwan based WW3 North Korea. The final questions that raises of course are
1) who are they shooting at? and 2) how far along is BMD?
I could see North Korea using a nuclear device and the US withholding the use of thier own.
*edit* in more or less direct responce to the post above, I'd expect far more support for a war with a more clearly defined external cause than was
seen in Iraq. (both at home and abroad) However, I fully agree that many nations would be quite reluctant to involve themselves. GW burnt up a lot
of clout there.
[edit on 11-1-2006 by Travellar]