Russian and Ukraine Gas Crisis Affecting EU (moved from ATSNN)

The growing crisis between the Ukraine Government and Russia's state-run firm Gazprom over Natural Gas supplies to the Ukraine has started to affect the EU supplies. Gazprom stopped supplying gas to the Ukraine on the first day of 2006, in an ongoing dispute over Gas Prices. However as 20% of all European Gas is transported through the Ukraine there are reports of Gas being Syphoned off before transit to Europe by the Ukrainians, though they are attributing the disruption in supply to loss of pressure in the Pipeline due to the Russsians switching of part of the supply. This could very well be the early days of something very serious as a desperately cold winter grips most of europe. An emergency meeting of Industry Experts is being set up for the Fourth of January in Brussels.



As some countries in the EU such as Germany procure up to 30% of all their gas supplies through this pipeline in the Ukraine, this seemingly ordinary dispute between the Ukraine and Russia could have massive effects on Europe if there is any long term disruption to supply. Truly now both the Ukraine and Russia have a very strong bargaining position against the EU, it would be ignorant to not expect both of them respectively to use this situation to their advantage.

With current Oil prices only set to rise and such a Cold winter in the EU I seriously advise everyone to keep a close eye on this.

Oil and Energy have been the driving force behind nearly all recent conflicts when looked at closely so I hope this is not going to lead anywhere else than a change in tarifs.

Related News Links:
abcnews.go.com
www.metronews.ca
www.rferl.org
www.swissinfo.org

Related AboveTopSecret.com Discussion Threads:
Russia to Cut Off Natural Gas Pipeline to Ukraine

[edit on 1-1-2006 by MischeviousElf]

I expect Russia to give in to political pressure within the next few days, possibly even tomorrow.

Seeings Russia has taken over as leader of the G8 this year, i cannot see them stepping down on this move.

I don't see this situation being resolved anytime soon with the way it's going right now. Russia will continue to use the price hikes to their advantage, using natural resources as a power tool.

Ukraine simply can't afford to pay $230 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas, which is roughly four times that of their previous rate. Russia's prices are not realistic to the situation and the outcome will of course be shortages in western European countries.

Russia's response? Looking for alternative methods to deliver the gas, bypassing and cutting off Ukraine.

Smart? Definately. Planned? Definately. Ukraine will have to rely on the help of it's new 'western friends' to help them out with this situation.

Poland has said it has enough reserves for a Weeks limited supply! One week and then NO gas at all in Poland

Hungary imports now down 14%. Big firms being forced to switch to oil from gas. (In Hungary, gas firm MOL said its supplies from Russia were already down 25%, Reuters news agency reported)

This is my submittion but im adding stuff as it comes in.

What no-one is grasping I feel is the worldwide effect this could soon have. Europe has been using a lot of its Oil reserves to send to the USA after the loss of crude production in the Gulf from Katrina. The Eu will have no choice but to stop this if industry is forced to switch to Oil from gas. This truly could affect the whole world supply is it escalates or continues, The US could see itself with fuel shortages from this too in the very near term if this isnt resolved. The current president of the Ukraine has previously had an assination attempt on his life leaving him scared for life, there is much belief that the assasination attempt was funded and set up by Moscow, due to his wanting to get closer ties with the west.

Also this could actually be a case of forced crisis by the Russains I quote:

The evidence is circumstantial. The most compelling is the much lower prices that continue to be charged to some other former Soviet Republics. Ukraine is being asked for $230 per thousand cubic metres. Recent contracts with Belarus specify a price of $47, and deals with Armenia and Georgia are for around $110. In addition, suspicions have been raised by the deal made by Gazprom with Turkmenistan, Ukraine's biggest gas supplier. Gazprom has agreed to buy 30 billion cubic metres of Turkmen gas, more than it usually does, and that could limit Ukraine's options

BBC

The ukraine and that area are known to be the road to the middle east for the russains so any Energy Crisis in this area is worrying. With the Ukraines self imposed annexation and de nuclearisation following the collapse of the Soviet Union, maybe russsia are testing just how loyal Ukraines new friends are and how much they can control this former strategically massive Soviet Bloc State?

In my Honest and educated opinion this is the seed of the first America/EU confrontation with Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Bloc. I am just hoping this is averted.

MischeviouslyFittingAWindfarmInMyGarden!

Regards
Elf

[edit on 1-1-2006 by MischeviousElf]

by Liquidus
Russia will continue to use the price hikes to their advantage, using natural resources as a power tool.

I agree. Putin is masterfully using the new state run energy services as leverage to muscle states like Germany, Poland, Italy, and the Ukraine back under their sphere of influence.

However, Bloomberg reports on the upcoming Ukraine elections aspect of the "gas war", noted that fingers are being pointed directly at U.S. involvment in the dispute.

Both Putin and Yushchenko are using the "gas war'' for political gain, said Markov, the Kremlin political consultant.

The Yushchenko election committee wants this gas war very much because if the election campaign continues on the path it's on now, Yushchenko won't win, Markov said. They want to provoke Gazprom to stop supply and organize a huge anti-Russian campaign -- to rally the people around the flag.''

Yushchenko said last week that the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency engineered the gas dispute to help Yushchenko in the March elections. The feud worsened after Yushchenko met with CIA Director Porter Goss in Crimea, said Yanukovych, a former prime minister, on Russian state television.

Of course, the finger pointing is coming from the ex-Ukraine President, so more research will have to be done on that side of the fence.

Makeitso
I wouldnt be that suprised by CIA involvement, as an aside here Corporate Espionage is now nearly as Geo Politically important, with influence and information, well Money Speaks so to say, as the conventional clock and dagger stuff.

Russia has today said they will restore the shortages

Russia says it will pump more gas to Europe after various countries said their supplies had fallen by up to 40% after Moscow cut Ukraine's provision.

However how they are going to do that they have not stated. I cant see them subsidising the Ukraine supply! They are accusing them of stealing the gas, well I just hope that they dont want to use this as an excuse to take control of Ukraine again, To secure european supplies what could europe do? we would go along like iraq for the Oil/Gas....

Relations between Russia and Ukraine have been tense since President Viktor Yushchenko came to power last year on a promise to strengthen relations with the EU and Nato, and steer the country out of Russia's sphere of influence.

BBC

Maybe nipping this in the Bud and looking further south of Ukraine towards The Afghanistan, Iraq and Middle eastern new American Presence.

Mind you if the Ukrainians are Stealing the Gas they are the current winners as rather than paying more its free! I would enjoy the heating while I could, before its turned off... if I was there.

Regards

Elf