Israel considers Iran nuke strike:Updated.

Isreal has, once again, reiterated that they are considering a operation to take out Iran's nuclear capabilities.

Article:
"Israel considers Iran nuke strike"
Link:
www.worldnetdaily.com...

Excerpt:
"Israel's defense forces are raising the prospect of an operation to destroy Iran's suspected nuclear weapons program.

Senior government and military officials, alarmed by the failure of the international community to move against Iran, have issued warnings that Israel would consider unilateral action to stop Tehran's development of nuclear weapons, reports Middle East Newsline---link:www.menewsline.com...

The clearest warnings yet came on the eve of another effort by the International Atomic Energy Agency to investigate suspected Iranian violations of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The suspected violations include the unauthorized enrichment of uranium...."



Also found an article that says that an "An Iraqi Expert: High Probability of Using Iraq's Airspace in an Israeli Military Operation Against Iran".
Link:
memri.org...
(scroll down about 1/4 of the page to find)

Excerpt:
"The daily Al-Shira' (independent) claimed that 17 Israeli military experts spent some time recently in Iraq to study the possibility of using Iraq's airspace, in case other Arab airspace is not available, in a possible attack against Iranian nuclear plants. The paper quoted "an Iraqi military expert" as saying that "there are strategic factors in favor of using Iraq's airspace in such a military operation......."


Iran's building a nuclear bomb has been the subject of debate for years but has heated up here in the last year. It has been labeled everything from "Islamic Bomb" to 'suicide'. Would Iran, which has a great hatred of Israel, and backs many 'organizations' that seek the destruction of Israel, consider using 'it' against Israel?

I would tend to think they wouldn't, yet, Iran would be in a heightened position to simply accelerate their backing of violent Islamic fundamentalism everywhere, which they could do with complete impunity, and nobody could do anything about it without risking being nuked. I beleive their intent for the 'nuke(s)' is not for use in war, but to free up Iran to pursue the violent, forced expansion of fundamentalist Islamism.

But back to the topic...what would be the possible outcome(s) of such a move by Israel?

I see many possible outcomes of an attack by Israel on Iran's nuclear plant.

1) One outcome, and mind you the most unlikely, a replay of the 1981 attack on the Iraqi nuclear plant, which was a stiff UN comdemnation of the attack an no response by the Iraqis. This is the unlikely of outcomes because at the time Iraq was engaged in a war with Iran and Iraq had no real means of counter attack.

2) Iran also has close relations with PRC and the Russia Republi. Let say Israel does attack and maybe a few Russian and Chinese advisors get killed. What do you think the reaction will be from those governments?

3) Iran also has gained some abilty to strike back and they have promised to with everything they have! With a spectrum ranging from nothing happening to a World War, would you advise the Israeli government to engage in such dangerous course? On the off chance the Iranians would be so foolish to use a single nuclear weapon against Israel which has upwards of 200.

It may sound foolish to you or I, but so does flying into a skyscraper or exploding your children.

Over the years, a number of Iranian officials and mullahs, including their former president, have indicated that a first strike at Israel, which could well destroy the state, would be worth as many as 50 million Arab casualties.

Personally, I'd take them at their word.

So, what do you folks think about this? Would or does Israel have the right to preemptive strike Iran, just as they did Iraq? Legalistic language has and plays no bearing when a nation feels that it is literally at threat of being targeted or destroyed.

Comments or thoughts welcome.

regards
seekerof















[Edited on 26-9-2003 by Seekerof]

[Edited on 11-10-2003 by Seekerof]

If they do happen to first strike israel..then they would all die...and the palestiniens

so that might not happen. It's just another new world cold war thing going on. Eventually something bad will happen....just when that happens no one knows

What do you mean?

That the all Israelis would die?

If so you are quite right..

As Israel is a very small piece of land..

That could be easily 'wiped out' with just by couple nuclear devices..

I belive im right when i say that tree 1mt devices would do that as they have a direct effects 30km:s away..

But lets hope that this kind of thing doesnt happen..

But if it happens, lets hope that 'Arrows' prove themselfs as a effective weapons.. (Israeli ABM-M..)

what i ment was that if they were "nuked" then they would die because of blast radius and fallout.

It's bound to happen because there will never be peace in the middle east...i don't know why they can't just settle their differences and be humans. But as long as the palestinians blow themselfs up to kill the Isralies there won't be peace.

Btw, Seekerof..

Couple killed Russian techs personel dont matter to Russians.. as to compared to more than million Russians living in Israel..

As i have heard the Russia and Israel are very much 'friendlies' today..

I heard and have read the samething Uni/Fulcrum, but in this particular case, with Israel considering such an attack, the possibility(ies) of casualties for foreign advisors might be a cause for either nation, Russia or China, to deem "action" necessary or considered.
Thats why I included it in the above outcome scenerio's.

Seems that India is secretly advising Israel on "some" matters concerning this possible attack on Iran's nuclear capabilities also. I'm not sure if it is geographical, intelligence, or what, but they are "consulting."


regards
seekerof

According to this document, Israel says that Iran does have the bomb.

"DOCUMENTS INDICATE IRAN HAS NUCLEAR WEAPONS"
Link:
www.fas.org...

The article is dated: APRIL 9, 1998


regards
seekerof

Seekerof,

If Indians are "consulting" Israelis.. this must be something that Russia has given a 'green light' to..

Maybe Russia would use 'big words' against Israel after such an attack.. but it would just be 'hollow talk' without any 'action taken'.

True Fulcrum....though Iran is considered a 'Soviet' client.

Been doing some thinking on this abit more.
I've come to the conclusion that in a nuclear world, there is no such thing as "effective retaliation". Once a nuclear attack is sustained the damage is done and can not be compensated for regardless of the capabilities of the country attacked.

Therefore "pre-emption" is the only effective defensive posture. It is no longer pre-emptive. It is, in fact, wholly "defensive". Whether "defensive"action takes the form of a unified world policy of inspections, trade embargos, sanctions, or military action, it all must PRECEDE and PRECLUDE lawless regimes from having a nuclear capability. With the UN faltering left and right on this, there is simply very little other option.

Also found these articles:
"IN SUPPORT OF ANTICIPATORY SELF-DEFENSE
ISRAEL, OSIRAQ, AND INTERNATIONAL LAW"
Link:
freeman.io.com...

"The Israeli Strike Against OSIRAQ"
Link:
www.airpower.au.af.mil...

"Special Weapons Facilities"
Link:
www.globalsecurity.org...

"Russia Sells Iran AVLIS System for Advanced Uranium Enrichment"
Link:
www.debka.com...


I do also conclude, as part of the "outcome" scenerio's that I gave in my first post, that doing such a 'attack' would probably end the 'peace process' permanently.


regards
seekerof

Originally posted by Seekerof

Been doing some thinking on this abit more.
I've come to the conclusion that in a nuclear world, there is no such thing as "effective retaliation". Once a nuclear attack is sustained the damage is done and can not be compensated for regardless of the capabilities of the country attacked.

regards
seekerof

And this is the very reason why i think that nobody, not a single nation should have nuclear weapons at all.

Maybe only some international space agency that would use them to protect the planet against asteroids could have them.. but no one else shouldnt have a single device.



Nukes are bad and sick thing, no matter 'who' has them.



People of this planet would be so much better off without any of those..

Article.......

"Teheran's efforts to acquire nuclear weapons via a thinly disguised civil program have been exposed, and Hamidreza Assefi, an official in the Iranian Foreign Ministry, has boasted that the recent Shahab 3 missile launch demonstrated an ability to strike Israel.

But before returning to a state of full alert, gas masks and missiles at the ready, and reversing the cuts in defense spending, a calmer look would be useful.

In the first place the Iranian missile program, while dangerous, appears to rely on imports of critical components from North Korea. If Washington acts soon to sever the Pyongyang link, and if the access to Russian and Chinese technology is halted, Iran will have difficultly maintaining a missile force. The small number of Shahab 3 tests resulted in more failures than successes, and the range of 1300 kilometers, while sufficient to strike Israel, leaves no margin for error. A minor guidance or thrust deviation would send missiles into Jordan or Syria. And if a few missiles were to get close, the Arrow missile defense system is designed to intercept them.

The real threat will be posed by the long-range Shahab 4, capable of hitting European cities; but if the technology flow is disrupted this will remain a paper missile."


Note: Iran and North Korea have been trading and jointly working on an intermediate-range missiles.....


regards
seekerof

I wish to god nukes had never been developed. Here we go again with another possible cold war. Or a very real nuclear strike.

It's all a conspiracy to piss off the arab nations enough to wipe out Isreal. They are the chosen race...to get wiped off the planet. Nothing against Isreal or any other nation or people. I'm not anti anything. But I like me a good game of chess and the moves seem to be falling in place for just such an occurrence. But I doubt Iran will be the one to do it, although I may be wrong. It certainly looks like a joint effort by Syria and Saudi Arabia. Don't worry though, the way this game is going it will be a few years yet. All we see now is posturing.

Who knows maybe they can get Isreal to force the arab world to make a move. In that case, it would be checkmate much quicker. Then we can get on with this stupid New World Order.

Remember, nothing is how it seems to be. And strategies change on a moment's notice.

UPDATE
In light of the situation that is seriously heating up between Israel and Syria.....Israel has come out today, Oct. 11th, and sayed this:

"Israel ready to launch preemptive strike on nuclear sites in Iran: report"
Link:
www.spacewar.com...

Excerpt:

"BERLIN (AFP) Oct 11, 2003
Israel's spy agency Mossad has drawn up preemptive attack plans on six sites in Iran it suspects are being used to prepare nuclear weapons, Der Spiegel magazine says in its Monday edition, citing Israeli security officials.
A special Mossad unit received orders two months ago to prepare plans for attacks on half-a-dozen targets, the magazine said."


Things are certainly heating up......


regards
seekerof

*shakes head* Not good news... That certainly raises the level of rattling. I wonder why this is being leaked. "Israeli security officials" are not usually in the business of leaks..

I agree Kukla....does seem strange....
Personally, it's either an intelligence ploy meant to "rattle the cages" of Iran since Iran commented yesterday that they would do whatever is necessary to defend itself in case of an Israeli excursion into Iran....based on the Syria incident........

or...

Israel has made a serious policy change and is now giving "Notice" to everyone and everybody....if you understand what I mean.


regards
seekerof

...And to throw more wood on the fire.......

Is it possible, just the slightest, that the other Arab nation's may want Israel to do this without them coming out and saying so?............

Check this out..........:

"Iran's Nuclear Weapons a Threat to Arab and Islamic Countries"
Link:
www.imra.org.il...

Excerpt:

""It would be a mistake to come to the defense of our neighbor Iran out of
ignorance and on the pretext of deterring Israel. The Iranian nuclear danger
threatens us, first and foremost, more than it threatens the Israelis and the Americans.""




regards
seekerof

That's an interesting article Seekerof. While counter-intuitive, I could see Pakistan implictly approving such a strike. Take it a step further and consider the possibility of US forces "liberating" Iran in a pre-emptive move. That would require manpower and weaponry out of Iraq, which would need replacing to maintin order. If Pakistan really wanted to see action in Iran, then they'd be inclined to take Washington's bribe, and order troops into Iraq to backfill for the US. A possibility that seems to be under discussion..

ISLAMABAD, Oct 9: Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali dropped the strongest hint on Thursday of sending troops to Iraq, saying that the nation and parliament would be taken into confidence on the issue.

www.hipakistan.com...