With the current tensions between the international community (especially Israel) and Iran, and the threat of Israeli action against Irans nucleur infrastructure increasing, I'm wondering how things would pan out if the Israelis' decide to air strike...

Would the U.S take part in it?

Would Syria support any Iranian retaliation?

What would be the fallout in Iraq? Afganistan? Lebanon? The Arab states?

Your input is appreciated...

All options are bad, very bad...

Would the U.S take part in it?
Not the initial strikes other than maybe military intelligence and logistical support.

Would Syria support any Iranian retaliation?
Will be tricky because they are home to most of the terrorist groups who always attack Israel. They may very well be attacked in the same strike to dismantle terrorist headquarters located in Damascus.The government will respond through supplying these terrorist groups but will not get directly involved. Will send these terrorsts to Lebanon and maximize the shelling of Shaaba Farms.

What would be the fallout in Iraq? Afganistan? Lebanon? The Arab states?

Iraq - Probably relieved after having a succesful election process, they are eventually going to feel threatened by the Theocracy next door.

Lebanon - Will be forced into this situation through Syria. May stand up against Syria fearing regime change for them. Doubtful though as much of the government is Syrian placed.

Afghanistan - I see nothing from them.

what was it saying russians are the protectors of the israelites or something like that?so russia is going to back israel and the US should be too right? or am i remembering wrong?

Originally posted by chinabean
what was it saying russians are the protectors of the israelites or something like that?so russia is going to back israel and the US should be too right? or am i remembering wrong?

Somehow, i don't think Russia would be backing Israel in this kind of scenario...after Russia's recent arms sales to both Syria and Iran and their consistant moves to undermine U.S controll in the area, I believe, Russia if anything would be backing Iran in a proxy war against Israel and the U.S.

I think Russia has just about had enough of Irans War songs, maybe theyll sit on the side lines and grab the rebuilding projects and new oil contracts after the war.
After all Russia does seem on a really big cash dash lately.

Iran is pretty clever, they are tempting US and Israel to attack them around this time so that so that the US and Israeli troops get out stretched and get beaten slowly while they are totaly exhausted.
US stuck in-Iraq,Afghanistan and groups of resistant fighters around the world.
Israel stuck with-Hizbullah attacking from border,groups like Hamas n Al aqsa will increase resistance from Palestine

I can see russia getting involved if the usa launch a ground assault in Iran , then we could see the start of WW3 , us vs russia , with iran as the battlegorund.

it would be a meat grinder , right until the usa launch the battlefield nuke , followed by a nuclear reply - then there will be a pause , taking stock before escalation of teh use of nukes.

Originally posted by Harlequin
I can see russia getting involved if the usa launch a ground assault in Iran , then we could see the start of WW3 , us vs russia , with iran as the battlegorund.

That's a proxy war not ww3.

And it won't happen, niether USA or Russia are stupid enough to get involved first.

They will let the middle east battle it out, and only step in if the other one does. But they won't.

* Waits impatiently for Bush to get out of office.

my initial comment is pray they don't come to blows....
Assuming there were no mishaps and limitted local fall out from the strikes, Because that would be oh hail Mary here we go time for all of us. The fact remains that in this scenario it would be ISRAEL, a nation most of the region wants an excuse to jump (not inserting my opinion on the validitty of their dislike or any of that ATS flame war fodder so don't act like i did if you deign to comment behind me)
At the very least you'd see all of the hard liner organizations go berserker and start emptying their caches of weaponry in the form of suicide bombs lobbed rockets at israel, and a TORRENT of body bags from our own boys in Iraq. Because like it or not agree or disagree the average Joe Middle Easterner will in no way believe the israelis would strike without at least tacit approval of the US.

Many tend to want to draw false paralells between Israel's last raid to insure regional non proliferation of nukes was aimed at Iraq... A country not terribly well liked by other mid east nations for it's more secular government. The two situations are not the same in any way and the political dynamic has changed greatly since then.

Originally posted by Dreamz
Iraq - Probably relieved after having a successful election process, they are eventually going to feel threatened by the Theocracy next door.

- Er Dreamz have you seen who the Iraqis are voting for?

The US forces have done a deal with Sadr's people and have tried to do deals with the other 'insurgents'.

Many of the parties and people standing are all about getting rid of the occupation forces, not embracing a version of our liberal western democracy.

Iraq is willingly becoming a theocracy, it's people are voting for Sadr's group in the centre and Shia fundamentalists in the south.
Kurds in the north.

That is not what I would call a "successful election process".
Frankly in view of the public reasoning for going in I'd call it a disaster.

I would expect the southern part of Iraq to be very friendly towards Iran and for this to spark new tensions in Iraq with the Sunnis (the south is where a lot of the oil/wealth is concentrated).

[edit on 16-12-2005 by sminkeypinkey]

Originally posted by sminkeypinkeyIraq is willingly becoming a theocracy, it's people are voting for one Sadr's group in the centre and Shia fundamentalists in the south.

I think they will probably vote for the United Iraqi Alliance, which is a Shia fundamentalist group, but has no connections with Sadr. The dominant forces in the UIA, The Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq in particular, are closely linked to Iran.