WAR: Israel Prepares Troops for Attack on Iran, page 4

Originally posted by ncbrian211
People think about this.... Russia, a country that is hurting for money has close buisness ties with Iran, who is supplying Russia with income. So Russia is just going to sit back as Israel destroys one of Russias buisness deals.

The balance is tipped a bit against Iran though. Neither America nor Russia is likely willing to take this to the next level; they might each be willing to fight a small skirmish in the air, maybe a few SF encounters against one another, but they both know that America stands a strong chance of winning in such a scenario.
So the question for Russia is, are they willing to gamble on a bluff by putting more forces in Iran than they are actually willing to engage in a fight with America, and hope that America blinks first?

I think America would blink if we had to, but if it were possible to get the job done in the air without actually harming too many Russians, we'd do it, and Russia would just be in a pretty pickle- they'd either have to back down before somebody gets hurt or go a lot farther than they ever intended to go.

Even if America isn't directly involved, will Russia go to the mat with Israel and risk either A. being forced into an all-out invasion of Iraq if the Arabs can't do it. B. getting into a nuclear confrontation with Israel.

At the end of the day I think it comes down to Russia's confidence in its airpower and air defenses, and their willingness to up the ante as far as is needed to pull out a victory if they should get their nose bloodied at first.

Edit to add: I think we're getting a little ahead of ourselves envisioning a world war over Iran.

There will of course be reactions, but I suspect they will be subtle ones for the most part- well at least subtle compared to the kind of scenario which a doomsayer might predict.

The worst imaginable scenario would of course be that Russia and the EU head a UN movement to remove America and Great Britain from the Security Council and vote to intervene- All American bases in Europe are quarantined, Russia uses the attack as an excuse to occupy the Caucuses while moving South to reinforce Iran, India declares neutrality, Pakistan suffers a coup, China gets permission to send forces through Tajikistan and Northern Pakistan to Afghanistan and on to Iran, and in exchange for this assisstance gets the new Security Council's blessing for an invasion of Taiwan, and the US will be looking at options for to start the whole thing fresh with a landing at Vladivostok before you can say "Tom Clancy"- then we all die in a nuclear holocaust.

None of that's gonna happen.

Assuming that Russia only commits to a minor skirmish and loses to Israel alone, the Arabs and the Persians will turn off the oil tap and demand a UN mandate removing US troops from Iraq and replacing them with a primarily Middle-Eastern separating force in Iraq to keep Israel away from Iran. It may happen, it may not- depends on how many votes they can command in the general assembly for threatening a shakeup of the Security Council in the event of a veto.

Russia will move forces and aircraft to Syria and issue some retribution, nuclear threats will be exchanged, people are going to realize that it's not an idle threat anymore and start making compromises. Israel may push away from the table and concede at this point if they feel they've done enough damage to the Iranian program.

[edit on 12-12-2005 by The Vagabond]