I find this interesting especially as for some time too many people have been reporting in places like this that the number 11 is occuring to them
lots, ie, the time on the clock or ticket no just bought. Ive seen it here and elsewhere recently though a quick search as time short couldnt find
I am undecided about this.... Though I would be ready to accept it if it was scientifically measured, by a good mathematician, to create odds in
relation to the seemingly widespread 'virus' of 11 in society presently, but mainly to measure the events outlined by the first poster in relation
to 11 and 9/11. If those odds were very large i would be more likely to accept it... however always knowing that no matter how big the odds it will
happen by chance on day or more correctly at one time.
Coincidence, luck or seredipity, patterns, signs whatever your prefered description of this phenomina is a strange thing indeed, however what seems
sure also is that humans are not very good at acquiring a accurate comprehension of the true statisics and 'chance' in many things. Also we tend to
look and interprete patterns when they are not really there... that statistically that thing will happen no matter how rare and unbelievable just by
chance, if enough time passes and goes by....
So lets explore this and our wrong perception of luck and statistical liklihood further:
How surprised would you be to meet someone at a party with the same birthday as you? ..some reading this may have taken such an occurence in the past
as fate or destiny or something similair. However
Now come to a figure in your head 365 to 1? as 365 days in the year....maybe slightly sifferant because of leap years...mmm so maybe 351.6789... whats
your reckoning anyhow why not write it down...
Anyhow Im sure you will agree that it shouldnt happen that often unless you go to many many large parties (lucky you!:-)
Well the answer is actually surpising when you get into the rather complicated math.... actually its 23 people in a party for you to have a greater
than 50% chance of meeting someone!
Emminent mathemitician Warren Weaver (US) once explained this to a group of high ranking US military at a dinner after a lecture whilst discussing
risk assesment (ie liklihood of things happening in battle/war)...
He went around the table asking the attended Generals their DOB and was dissapointed when the last Officer did not match anyones DOB...however the
waitress in the room then piped up that she had the same dob as one of the Officers she was the 23rd person in the room...
Certainly the above is testable to you...you will due to its very nature find times when no one in a room full of 365 people shares a birthday.... but
you can try this out yourselves...Its very very likely that in a gathering of 50 people you will find someone at odds of 80 -90 % much higher than the
amount of times that 50 goes into 365 (just above 7 which would equal around 13-15% rough liklihood. Thats the thing about this field its not as it
appears or how we logically feel it should!
so another one...
You reading this.... how likely do you think it is that you could send a message to someone you knew and that they could only do the same and that
message could reach me after 30 hops? maybe more 100? seems unlikely?
go on right it down now before reading more and compare your answer with the result.
well also read on and shake some of your core programming about the chance events on the outside world!
In 1967 the famous Psychologist?sociolgist Mildram predicted that there are only six degrees of seperation for every human on the planet...that is
everyone can be linked to everyone else by six steps (friends/relatives etc)!!! well you might find this hard to believe and mildram was unable to
prove it at the time However Wats a sociologist Phd student in the UK in the 1990's assigned 60,000 random people from differant countries and
languauges and walks of life to 60,000 trying to contact them by the above method. one person per target. Email was used and the could only forward it
to someone they knew and the same thereafter.
Staggering though it is to the logical brain on average this experiment proved Mildrams earlier Hypothesis as on average it took between just
5 and 7 emails for the message to be delivered to the target!!!
now lets just look at some random (excuse the pun!lol) events and see the probability for it...now I would also like you to think of the question and
see how safe you feel about it...how sure you are of it happening or not to you...but also importantly look at which ones intuitively feel more likely
or not and then see he results so again write it down:
So lets test together our intuition and understanding of chance... write down again what you feel is you chance of these things happening to you....
if you cant think of an actual amount just list the events from 1 to 10 yourself, that is rearrange my random events below to match your expectation
of it happening to you. where 1 is the most likely to happen:
1: Being Struck by Lightening?
2:Hitting a Hole in one in Golf(amatuer)?
3:Being murdered in the next year (US from 1st jan)?
ying playing football? (soccer)
ying under the wheels of a bus?
ying in a plane crash?
7:Winning the Lottery Jackpot?
8:Winning a smaller prize on the Lottery?
9:Chooking to death on food?
10: All four players getting a perfect hand of whist in bridge?
done good well I will post the results in a hour or two! how likely did you think it was that I would do that? will post reply by 7pm GMT today.