Originally posted by Off_The_Street
Stellarex, I barely know where to start. I have many issues with your comments, and I will address them as best as I can.
You always have many issues with my claims and you always seem to have trouble deciding where to start!
Not only is your “established fact” rejected by just about everyone I know, but your comment tells me your next basic econ class will be
your first. I don’t think you even understand what SimCity is saying.
Well then you are talking to the wrong people! I would like to argue that i understand exactly what his saying and responded to enlighten his
World energy reserves are growing rapidly
BP: World oil and gas reserves still growing at healthy pace
How Much Oil and Natural Gas is Left?
Oil Experts to Seek a Deeper Meaning
"Doomsayers to the contrary, the world contains far more recoverable oil than was believed even 20 years ago. Between 1976 and 1996, estimated global
oil reserves grew 72%, to 1.04 trillion barrels."
So clearly there is no shortage of available resources to exploit and as one can see from looking at the daily numbers of oil on global market there
is not in fact shortages as much as there is very expensive oil. Since is not exactly a day to day thing anyways there is always oil available and it
is FEARS that supply will be disrupted that drives up prices. Well that is the official reasoning and excuse at least.
You ask why the prices have gone up, trying to discuss it in terms of infrastructure costs. The answer to that is simple: OPEC raises the
price to increase their profits and to keep their supply viable for a few more decades.
OPEC is not the problem as much as you seem to want to blame them without reason. OPEC would not be producing ever and ever more just to keep enough
oil on global markets if they were not trying to in fact lower the prices. OPEC has plenty of oil so no reason for them to raise prices and cause
countries world wide to seriously start considering alternative fuel sources. They want growth and they want to keep the world dependent on their
Here is more information if you like to keep up the pretense that everything can be blamed on OPEC.
"Saudi Arabia sets the pace in OPEC and the US tell's Saudi Arabia how much oil to produce.
Opec wants to increase oil output to bring down prices.
Some select points from a recent BBC Hardtalk interview between
DR Adnan Shihab Eldin (OPEC’s Acting Secretary General and Director of the Research Division) and Stephen Sackur. Reading the full text (
) will be most informative.
"Dr SE- We are looking into trying to find what would be the best price or most acceptable price for everybody in the new era, so to speak."
"Dr SE - Well OPEC is only one of the players. Let's remember, the prices are set in New York and London where future contracts for oil are being
sold. That's what sets the price. What OPEC tries to do is influence the price into a regime that is good for everybody. Previously in 2000 - 2003
OPEC set a target 22-28 as a comfortable regime for everybody and it was successful. Everybody accepts that.
What has happened over the last two years - a number of factors have contributed to raising the price level to what we have seen right now. Even for
WTI's above 50 and the OPEC basket has been hovering between 40 and 50...
SS - You lost control, basically, of the price.
Dr SE - Well, we don't control the price - let's be very frank about that.. "
"SS - And my point is that you seem to have lost control of your ability to control the price.
DR SE - No. We have not, because we have done what it takes to influence the price and that is to ensure that there are enough supplies in the market
that the buyers of the oil will find the oil to buy. In 2004 when demand grew by close to 3 million barrels a day OPEC pumped 3.5 million barrels
extra oil and ensured that there was a surplus in the market in 2004. Now that surplus should normally have allowed prices to find a reasonable
"Dr SE - It appears that it has to be around 30 for the basket by just looking historically, even 2000 - 2004, it was above 30 in real terms in
today's dollars. Now, the upper limit is a bit problematic because you really don't want prices to go too high to begin..
SS - (INTERUPTS)..What is too high?
Dr SE - If they start impacting global economic growth.
SS - Well, to be specific, what's too high?
Dr SE: So far we have been lucky enough that even with prices hovering around 50 in 2004 and continue to hover around 50 the global economic growth
have been able to cope with minimal impact
SS: So you don't think 50 is too high?
Dr SE: Well I think that if you go above 50 significantly you will begin to see response measures that may impact the growth in the world economy."
"SS: So I take it from what you're saying that ultimately you see a price that's hovering around 50-dollars a barrel?
Dr SE: Well that would probably be on the high side but I think you are close to what we think is happening right now but that's on the high side for
the basket. "
"Dr SE - It's hard to see how he comes to this conclusion when the fact of the matter is there has not been a shortage, neither last year, nr this
year, nor in the next four or five years because even if China increases its demand for oil every year from now on at the level of six to eight
hundred thousand barrels a day if you put OPEC's increase in capacity plus its spare capacity plus the growth in non- OPEC.
Even if you take the growth in non-OPEC slowing down from a million and a half in the past few years to just simply half a million you would still
have enough oil in the market to meet those growing demands and to leave some should there be a sudden disruption or should there be a sudden increase
"Dr SE - If you talk to the international oil companies and you ask them why have you not invested and they will refer to the lower margin meaning
that the profit margin in investing in refineries as one of the factors.
The other factor they refer to is that there are so many specifications and regulations, it makes it extremely difficult to get a permit in a
consuming country like Europe and the United States to build a new refinery. Even to upgrade a refinery is very difficult, you have this phenomena
called the NIMBY - Not In My Back Yard type of thing.
SS- You are beginning to blame them for failing to invest in refining capacity, but many analysts would blame OPEC member states for failing to invest
in increasing production to the rate that is necessary. And they make the point that OPEC members, much more than non- OPEC producers - the oil
industries in those countries (your countries) are dominated by government.
They are owned by government, so it is therefore up to government to get the investment into maximising production and it's just not happening is it?
SS- (INTERUPTS) Well, you know how much oil is in the ground..
Dr SE - Yes, and we don't believe there is a problem for the next 30, 40 years. That's plenty long enough time for countries to look for
SS- Is it really? 30 or 40 years. Think back to 1975. That's 30 years ago. We haven't shown any great ability to change the way we rely on fossil
fuels in the last 30 years.
Dr SE - That's not 30 or 40 years to run out of oil. That's 30 or 40 years to look at alternatives. Oil will be with us much longer than that. Just
like coal has been around for so many centuries. So oil is not expected to run out in 30 or 40 years, I'm just saying that the peak in production
will not be reached in 30 or 40 years. That gives us another maybe 30 or 40 years.
Now at the end of the day we will not run out of the last barrel of oil - that will never happen - but oil will begin to make way for other more
available energy sources
that will be discovered and developed for the benefit of all of humanity. We encourage that. We have nothing to stand
against it because it is in the interests of everybody. "
I would point everyones attention towards the highlighted area...."
Just a extract from my activity on a previous forum and there is heaps more in my archive if you somehow feel unconvinced.
You seem to believe in a strange astronomical phenomenon:
Tis not a question of belief as much as one of observation and study!
the Sun heating up ( as all the other planets are heating up aswell) and not with our wastefull and criminally run energy infrastructures.
I cannot think of any scientist who believes such.
Not exactly my problem either. Facts are facts.
Do you have any evidence at all of a gradual and long-term incresase in the temperatures of either the Sun or any of the planets (other than
Earth)? If so, where is your evidence? What are your citations?
Why do you insult me first before bothering to ask for my sources?
The truth about global warming
- it's the Sun that's to blame
Is the Sun Heating Up?
Well those are my own finds but if you really have a few hours to read i suggest you read trough
source list. You can skip the story but do try read a few of the sources to begin to form an understanding of what is happening in our solar
When someone says that we need other sources of energy, you reply with:
Well i assumed you were familiar with at least some of the other sources.
Yet you do not identify these “obvious’ sources except to say they’re being subverted by some Secret Plot by ”they”. And, of course,
you never mention the sources or the “they”.
I think you have seen my posts on extracting energy from the active vacuum ( Beardens work mostly) so i am not sure why you are asking about my
motives here. The oil markets of the world is completely manipulated so why on earth would those who control it want to let go by letting alternative
energy exploitation methods onto the markets?
It’s called a “joke”, stellarx . It’s in the dictionary, just like “sense of humor” is.
Please call me Stellar ( or Stel) as we are clearly going to be spending alot of time talking to each other in the future. I knew it was a joke but
made my views clear anyways.
I asked if anyone believing in hemp had ever come up with a cost-comparison to see whether it’s feasible to use hemp oil for fuel. You
Rubbish! Cost is important, because if something is not cost-effective, no one will do it. And your statement about the “fact” that every
country could produce their own in the quantities they needed…!
Cost is important but as i have said elsewhere before many countries are importing most of their food from the West ( it's cheaper than they can
produce it themselves due to massive subsidising strategies in the west) and since they lack foreign currency they are forced to plant cash crops just
to have a chance of getting some dollars. When they no llonged need these dollars so badly they could turn all that spending towards hemp production
or whatever can provide energy without the dependancy on foreign market prices.
C’mon!. You don’t have a clue as to how many acres of arable land would be needed to grow the hemp, what the water requirements
are, how much hemp you would need to produce a gallon of fuel, or how much fuel any country needs.
Yeah i would have to be stupid to make the claims i am.
There is clearly no chance there might be any truth in it. What's with all the insults
In short, you have no substantiation whatsoever, and you are saying that because you would like it to be true.
Well i guess we could add up the cost and water use involved in production of cash crops in Africa and South East Asia and arrive at a figure of land
that could be put to use producing hemp or like substances for native energy production. That would however take alot of time but unless you have done
the math i really such a less hostile and insulting tone.
[qoute]Well, I’d “like” it to be true too, but wanting something to be true doesn’t make it that way.
I agree with that.
If you talk about this unsubstantiated wishes as “fact”, I don’t think anyone’s going to give you any credibility at all.
Well i plan on earning my respect and those who wish to be disrespectfull will always run into facts they avoided or never knew to be.
All i ask is that you never assume i do not have sources because i do not post them in casual discussion. When people want to contest my data i will
provide as much information as is required and it would be really nice if you stopped insulting me before having seen my sources.
Now as far as i could count you were wrong on numerous instances in the post i just responded to and i hope it serves as a warning for the future.
Dont you think it would be easier for everyone if we could assume intelligence instead of ignorence on first encounters?
Well i guess i will be responding to your response tonight so talk more then.
[edit on 26-12-2005 by StellarX]