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Originally posted by Zion Mainframe
Apparently you forgot to read all the research articles and speeches Simmons gave over the years. They've done quite a lot of research.
As I've already told you in the other thread, the book gives an excellent overview of the history of oil, the middle east, and US reliance on foreign oil.
It gives examples of how and why the US peaked in the '70s. A thoughtful and well-researched history of oil and geopolitics, according to The Economist.
Originally posted by StellarX
I have no interest reading a book by a consitently bad liar so you will first need to tell me why this book is based on some truth when the rest of his life's work seems to be based on conjecture at best and outright lies at worse.
Us oil productiob "peaked" ( highest output) in 1983 and not in the 70's as you suggest.
Originally posted by Zion Mainframe
So you continue to read only the books that tell you Peak Oil is a myth, that's great!
By doing that you can really form you own opinion, can you?
I've read a few books from authors who warn about Peak Oil, and I've read books that claim peak oil is a scam. I've in fact just started with
Still, I'm quite convinced the global Peak Oil will be within 20 years from now.
Are you sure about that? What's your source?
U.S. crude oil production, which declined following the oil price collapse of late 1985/early 1986, leveled off in the mid-1990s, and began falling again following the sharp decline in oil prices of late 1997/early 1998. During 2004, the United States produced around 7.6 million barrels per day (bbl/d) of oil, of which 5.4 million bbl/d was crude oil, 1.8 million bbl/d was natural gas liquids and 0.4 million bbl/d was other liquids. This compares to the 10.6 million bbl/d averaged during 1985. U.S. crude oil production, which averaged 5.4 million bbl/d during the first eight months of 2005, is now at 50-year lows.
Anyway, we keep talking about Simmons, what about Colin Campbell, a former oil geologist.
If Campbell's estimation methods produce accurate, rather than conservative, resource estimates, overcoming the objections about field and resource growth made by Adelman and Lynch, and if the Petroconsultants field size estimates are accurate because they don't have to conform to SEC rules requiring conservative field size reporting, why have his production forecasts been much too low and why have his resource estimates increased?
Lynch (1996) argued that the Hubbert method fails because it takes recoverable (not total) resources as fixed, and assumes that to be the area under the curve of total production. When the estimate of the area under the curve (resources) is increased, the entire increase must be applied to future production. This is exactly what is happening with Campbell, as Figure 15 shows. The errors in his 1991 forecast and the adjustments he has made in his latest work are thus predicted by Lynch (1996). Campbell has not provided an alternative explanation, merely ignored them. And as Figure 18 shows, his forecast is well outside the mainstream.
Contrarily, the statistics of the international petroleum industry establish that, far from diminishing, the net known recoverable reserves of petroleum have been growing steadily for the past fifty years. Those statistics show tha t, for every year since about 1946, the international petroleum industry has discovered at least five new tons of recoverable oil for every three which have been consumed. As Professor P. Odell has put the circumstance succinctly, instead of "runnin g out of oil," the human race by every measure seems to be "running into oil".
(Odell 1984; Odell 1991; Odell 1994)