Originally posted by Zion Mainframe
So you continue to read only the books that tell you Peak Oil is a myth, that's great!
I do not read books on the topic as that would just give me the author's opinion and bias. All my figures come from browsing the web and reading
article's in general.
By doing that you can really form you own opinion, can you?
My opinion does not come from reading a book or two by two people who mostly agree. I read articles by dozens of authors who mostly disagree and form
my opinion based on that.
I've read a few books from authors who warn about Peak Oil, and I've read books that claim peak oil is a scam. I've in fact just started
with
Well then your on the right path and you will eventually see things they way i do.
Glad to see you have not made up your mind and is still willing
to go where the evidence leads.
Still, I'm quite convinced the global Peak Oil will be within 20 years from now.
And you might be right and i might be wrong.....
Are you sure about that? What's your source?
US production:
U.S. crude oil production, which declined following the oil price collapse of late 1985/early 1986, leveled off in the mid-1990s, and began
falling again following the sharp decline in oil prices of late 1997/early 1998. During 2004, the United States produced around 7.6 million barrels
per day (bbl/d) of oil, of which 5.4 million bbl/d was crude oil, 1.8 million bbl/d was natural gas liquids and 0.4 million bbl/d was other liquids.
This compares to the 10.6 million bbl/d averaged during 1985. U.S. crude oil production, which averaged 5.4 million bbl/d during the first eight
months of 2005, is now at 50-year lows.
www.eia.doe.gov...
My bad! Out by 3 years but still closer than Hubbert.
Anyway, we keep talking about Simmons, what about Colin Campbell, a former oil
geologist.
If Campbell's estimation methods produce accurate, rather than conservative, resource estimates, overcoming the objections about field and
resource growth made by Adelman and Lynch, and if the Petroconsultants field size estimates are accurate because they don't have to conform to SEC
rules requiring conservative field size reporting, why have his production forecasts been much too low and why have his resource estimates
increased?
Lynch (1996) argued that the Hubbert method fails because it takes recoverable (not total) resources as fixed, and assumes that to be the area under
the curve of total production. When the estimate of the area under the curve (resources) is increased, the entire increase must be applied to future
production. This is exactly what is happening with Campbell, as Figure 15 shows. The errors in his 1991 forecast and the adjustments he has made in
his latest work are thus predicted by Lynch (1996). Campbell has not provided an alternative explanation, merely ignored them. And as Figure 18
shows, his forecast is well outside the mainstream.
sepwww.stanford.edu...
Beside the fact that he made at least two predictions before ( wrong as they have always been so far) he keeps on making them as if nothing happened.
He just ignores the facts and adjust his little table's to show that the world will peaking ( again ) soon.
Considering who he worked ( or still do) for this is no surprise to me. There are volumes of evidence simple pointing out how much oil we are still
running into daily.
Contrarily, the statistics of the international petroleum industry establish that, far from diminishing, the net known recoverable reserves of
petroleum have been growing steadily for the past fifty years. Those statistics show tha t, for every year since about 1946, the international
petroleum industry has discovered at least five new tons of recoverable oil for every three which have been consumed. As Professor P. Odell has put
the circumstance succinctly, instead of "runnin g out of oil," the human race by every measure seems to be "running into oil".
(Odell 1984; Odell 1991; Odell 1994)
I have given you many more article's showing that the basis for their claims is simple factually absurd WHATEVER you happen to believe is happening
in Saudi Arabia. Even mature oil producing countries ( North America ) will still not conform to conservative predictions so why suggest the massive
unexplored expanses of the world will not yield oil?
Peak oil just makes no sense if one gives the facts even a cursory glance. It is simple another sham to make human beings feel guilty for living the
best lives they can. We should be moving away from oil but it will not have to be or be because it is running out.
Stellar
[edit on 13-1-2006 by StellarX]
