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OIL NEWS: Kuwaits biggest oil field is now officially running dry.

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posted on Jan, 12 2006 @ 11:53 AM
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Originally posted by Zion Mainframe
Apparently you forgot to read all the research articles and speeches Simmons gave over the years. They've done quite a lot of research.


Well i have looked at the basic claims made in many of his articles and i am not convinced even knowing the little i do. If he wants to convince people who actually spent the time to do some research he will have to work on his prediction rate as he only consistent in being hopelessly wrong.



As I've already told you in the other thread, the book gives an excellent overview of the history of oil, the middle east, and US reliance on foreign oil.


Well the US reliance on foreign oil has nothing to do with the availability or cost of American oil. If the government subsidised the oil industry ( wich it is in fact doing with the 50 billion dollar yearly middle east security cost) of America to exploit American sources there would be no demand for foreign oil.

I have no interest reading a book by a consitently bad liar so you will first need to tell me why this book is based on some truth when the rest of his life's work seems to be based on conjecture at best and outright lies at worse.



It gives examples of how and why the US peaked in the '70s. A thoughtful and well-researched history of oil and geopolitics, according to The Economist.


Us oil productiob "peaked" ( highest output) in 1983 and not in the 70's as you suggest. Hubbert simply said somewhere in the 70's because that is what he was told to say so that the OIl industry could move its operations to middle east without people wondering why.

His research is bunk and if you checked out Lynche's article you would realise as much. If a scientist keeps making wrong predictions based on the theory he is using the theory is clearly not accurate or usefull. Simmons has not predicted anything and thus has no credibility imo.

Stellar




posted on Jan, 13 2006 @ 05:08 AM
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Originally posted by StellarX

I have no interest reading a book by a consitently bad liar so you will first need to tell me why this book is based on some truth when the rest of his life's work seems to be based on conjecture at best and outright lies at worse.

So you continue to read only the books that tell you Peak Oil is a myth, that's great! By doing that you can really form you own opinion, can you?!
I've read a few books from authors who warn about Peak Oil, and I've read books that claim peak oil is a scam. I've in fact just started with The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy.

Still, I'm quite convinced the global Peak Oil will be within 20 years from now.



Us oil productiob "peaked" ( highest output) in 1983 and not in the 70's as you suggest.

Are you sure about that? What's your source?

US production:


US reserves:


Anyway, we keep talking about Simmons, what about Colin Campbell, a former oil geologist.




posted on Jan, 13 2006 @ 02:25 PM
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Originally posted by Zion Mainframe
So you continue to read only the books that tell you Peak Oil is a myth, that's great!


I do not read books on the topic as that would just give me the author's opinion and bias. All my figures come from browsing the web and reading article's in general.


By doing that you can really form you own opinion, can you?


My opinion does not come from reading a book or two by two people who mostly agree. I read articles by dozens of authors who mostly disagree and form my opinion based on that.


I've read a few books from authors who warn about Peak Oil, and I've read books that claim peak oil is a scam. I've in fact just started with


Well then your on the right path and you will eventually see things they way i do.
Glad to see you have not made up your mind and is still willing to go where the evidence leads.


Still, I'm quite convinced the global Peak Oil will be within 20 years from now.


And you might be right and i might be wrong.....


Are you sure about that? What's your source?

US production:



U.S. crude oil production, which declined following the oil price collapse of late 1985/early 1986, leveled off in the mid-1990s, and began falling again following the sharp decline in oil prices of late 1997/early 1998. During 2004, the United States produced around 7.6 million barrels per day (bbl/d) of oil, of which 5.4 million bbl/d was crude oil, 1.8 million bbl/d was natural gas liquids and 0.4 million bbl/d was other liquids. This compares to the 10.6 million bbl/d averaged during 1985. U.S. crude oil production, which averaged 5.4 million bbl/d during the first eight months of 2005, is now at 50-year lows.

www.eia.doe.gov...


My bad! Out by 3 years but still closer than Hubbert.


Anyway, we keep talking about Simmons, what about Colin Campbell, a former oil geologist.



If Campbell's estimation methods produce accurate, rather than conservative, resource estimates, overcoming the objections about field and resource growth made by Adelman and Lynch, and if the Petroconsultants field size estimates are accurate because they don't have to conform to SEC rules requiring conservative field size reporting, why have his production forecasts been much too low and why have his resource estimates increased?

Lynch (1996) argued that the Hubbert method fails because it takes recoverable (not total) resources as fixed, and assumes that to be the area under the curve of total production. When the estimate of the area under the curve (resources) is increased, the entire increase must be applied to future production. This is exactly what is happening with Campbell, as Figure 15 shows. The errors in his 1991 forecast and the adjustments he has made in his latest work are thus predicted by Lynch (1996). Campbell has not provided an alternative explanation, merely ignored them. And as Figure 18 shows, his forecast is well outside the mainstream.

sepwww.stanford.edu...


Beside the fact that he made at least two predictions before ( wrong as they have always been so far) he keeps on making them as if nothing happened. He just ignores the facts and adjust his little table's to show that the world will peaking ( again ) soon.

Considering who he worked ( or still do) for this is no surprise to me. There are volumes of evidence simple pointing out how much oil we are still running into daily.


Contrarily, the statistics of the international petroleum industry establish that, far from diminishing, the net known recoverable reserves of petroleum have been growing steadily for the past fifty years. Those statistics show tha t, for every year since about 1946, the international petroleum industry has discovered at least five new tons of recoverable oil for every three which have been consumed. As Professor P. Odell has put the circumstance succinctly, instead of "runnin g out of oil," the human race by every measure seems to be "running into oil".

(Odell 1984; Odell 1991; Odell 1994)


I have given you many more article's showing that the basis for their claims is simple factually absurd WHATEVER you happen to believe is happening in Saudi Arabia. Even mature oil producing countries ( North America ) will still not conform to conservative predictions so why suggest the massive unexplored expanses of the world will not yield oil?

Peak oil just makes no sense if one gives the facts even a cursory glance. It is simple another sham to make human beings feel guilty for living the best lives they can. We should be moving away from oil but it will not have to be or be because it is running out.

Stellar

[edit on 13-1-2006 by StellarX]



posted on Jan, 13 2006 @ 02:36 PM
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No doubt, we all need to switch our energy resources to SOLAR, but BIG money and ol will not allow that, unless they have the market cornered and raise the prices ...



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