Then, Crow, tyou are aware that when yo usay that I virus passes "easily from animal to animal", then what you are saying is that th evirus is
zoonotic, and that because a virus is zoonotic does not mean that the virus passes to and from all animals easily; some not at all.
The reason H5N1 is a public health crisis is because it does
jump species barriers - it's a type A influenza virus.
"Bird" Flu Overview:
"Viruses are masters of interspecies navigation. Mutating rapidly and often grabbing the genetic material of other viruses, they can jump from
animals to humans with a quick flick of their DNA. Sometimes, as in West Nile fever, the transfer occurs through an intermediate host such as a
mosquito. But viruses can also make the leap directly.
Since the 1980s, the list of diseases that have hitchhiked directly from animals to people has grown rapidly - hantavirus, SARS, monkeypox and, most
recently, avian influenza, commonly called bird flu. With the exception of HIV/AIDS, perhaps none of these illnesses has more potential to create
widespread harm than bird flu does. ...type A influenza infects both people and animals, including birds, pigs, horses, whales and seals.
CDC: Influenza type A viruses can infect people, birds, pigs, horses, seals, whales, and
other animals, but wild birds are the natural hosts for these viruses.
Mayo Clinic: ...type A influenza infects both people and animals, including birds,
pigs, horses, whales and seals.
Of greatest concern, as the WHO states: Evidence is mounting that, for at least
some of the 15 avian influenza virus subtypes circulating in bird populations, humans themselves can serve as the “mixing vessel”.
that survive infection excrete virus for at least 10 days, orally and in faeces, thus facilitating further spread at live poultry markets and by
There is concern that humans could assume a role similar to swine and dometic quail by
becoming the "vessel" for mixing avian and human influenza genes.
You are also aware that, while the virus is as it is now, that does not mean that it will make the jump this year or the next, if at all.
The "jump" already has been made TC - probably numerous times - and H5N1 does not
need new genetic material to jump between species. That's
why it's a crisis.
You are also aware that when the jumps are made, it is usual that the virus beomes less virulant.
Absolutely. That's why I think the real crisis is not
the fatality rate. The real
crisis is the chronic disease that occurs in infected
survivors. Clearly, a less virulent form of H5N1 has been spreading around the world for the past 8 years - and probably is contributing to the
chronic disease epidemic. See: Bird Flu and Beyond: Chronic Disease to Kill 400 Million
Bird Flu, and the "Neglected Epidemic"
This also is why I think the trend in public health policy focuses on assisted suicide as a solution, not prevention. See:
Bird Flu and Beyond: Assisted Suicide Instead of Prevention
Originally posted by soficrow
VERY common knowledge. Hong Kong, 1997. All the poultry was killed, and the crisis was averted, but as the strain has reappeared, it obviously was
OK, it's been around 8 years. Can you tell me why I should worry NOW, NEXT YEAR? 2012? Ok, forgive the last one, Nostradamus may have predicted that
I'm glad you asked.
Industrial activity and other human actions have altered our world's chemistry and biology, and life's genetic structures.
Since the 1980s, the list of diseases that have hitchhiked directly from animals to people has
The critical point occurred in 1997 - this point would be called "Self-Organized Criticality" in complexity theory, and is the point that
microbiologists and other scientists were warning us about for the past 50 years. ...Two long predicted events occurred - new bacteria and virus
mutations appeared that bypass the immune system, and medical technology too:
1. H5N1 "bird" flu hit Hong Kong - it's claim to fame is that it resulted from 'recombination,' not the usual antigenic shift and drift, and it
jumps species without requiring species-specific genetic material.
2. "At a press conference on May 23rd 1997 scientists finally acknowledged the arrival of the
untreatable bacteria they'd feared for years.
...Today superbugs look triumphant. They are bacteria that resist our antibiotics. The drugs
which have kept us safe for 50 years are beginning to fail. ...This is a serious situation. Over the last 5 years we've clearly seen a change in our
ability to treat what should have been easily treatable infections because the bacteria have developed the ability of resisting the antibiotics.
...And the more antibiotics we use, the more resistant bacteria become. Every year more than 5 million people die from infections that don't respond
Overall, the situation has worsened considerably over the past 8 years, on every microbial front - prevention strategies were not
the "war on terrorism" became the hot budget priority; and health budgets were slashed to ribbons. Chronic diseases now are epidemic worldwide - and
the preferred solution is eugenics and assisted suicide.
Hmmm. Do you think maybe it was the "War on Terror" that was created to hide the real
Q: Should you worry?
A: Only if your family is not
part of the world's ruling economic elite, and you cannot
trace your bloodline back 5,000 years.