CDC says human-to-human H5N1 has occured

They have verified that H5N1 can and has spread human-to-human. They have not "observed" it going beyond one person though.

How does bird flu spread?
Infected birds shed flu virus in their saliva, nasal secretions, and feces. Susceptible birds become infected when they have contact with contaminated excretions or surfaces that are contaminated with excretions. It is believed that most cases of bird flu infection in humans have resulted from contact with infected poultry or contaminated surfaces. The spread of avian influenza viruses from one ill person to another has been reported very rarely, and transmission has not been observed to continue beyond one person.

here



I have to wonder how long they have known for sure. I find it hard to believe that President Bush would be willing to spend billions on a pandemic that might happen. I have been watching Weekly Report: Influenza SUmmary Update it states that of the "reported cases" (my Dr. office very rarely tests for the flu because the wait is so long for the results, and that is IF I go to the Dr.), there have been 12 unsubtyped cases of Influenza A. Meaning that they know it is Influenza A but it is not the 3 common forms H3N2, H1N1, and H1N2. Most importantly, it says:

During week 42, 6.4% of all deaths reported by the vital statistics offices of 122 U.S. cities were reported as due to pneumonia or influenza. This percentage is below the epidemic threshold of 6.9% for week 42.

That is .5% away from an epidemic.

I cant help but wonder if it isnt already here.

Where does it say it's H2H? I have not seen any press releases.

It is on the CDC's website. I gave the link to it above.

I also wanted to mention that I went to the grocery store today and there was a sign posted saying "flu vaccines have been canceled due to shortage". I called my mother in law and she said that she read in the paper that there will be no more vaccine deliveries. Anyone else hear of this?

It says it "has occured" but not observed......
but surely once it transmissable between humans it would spread like wild fire????

It will happen sometime, thats nature for yer, someone said to me it wont happen till next year...all this talk..
but it will happen, but hey the human race will survive this, like most things we will get through it as a race.
But ppl will die, maybe not as much as the last one "spanish flu"
that was 30 million dead.

Now that it has gone human-to-human that puts us at Phase 4.....maybe even Phase 5 depending what they concider Larger clusters.

Stages of a Pandemic
WHO has developed a global influenza preparedness plan , which defines the stages of a pandemic, outlines the role of WHO, and makes recommendations for national measures before and during a pandemic. The phases are:

Interpandemic period

Phase 1 : No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. An influenza virus subtype that has caused human infection may be present in animals. If present in animals, the risk of human infection or disease is considered to be low.

Phase 2 : No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. However, a circulating animal influenza virus subtype poses a substantial risk of human disease.

Pandemic alert period

Phase 3 : Human infection(s) with a new subtype, but no human-to-human spread, or at most rare instances of spread to a close contact.

Phase 4 : Small cluster(s) with limited human-to-human transmission but spread is highly localized, suggesting that the virus is not well adapted to humans.

Phase 5 : Larger cluster(s) but human-to-human spread still localized, suggesting that the virus is becoming increasingly better adapted to humans but may not yet be fully transmissible (substantial pandemic risk).

Pandemic period

Phase 6 : Pandemic: increased and sustained transmission in general population.

Notes: The distinction between phases 1 and 2 is based on the risk of human infection or disease resulting from circulating strains in animals. The distinction is based on various factors and their relative importance according to current scientific knowledge. Factors may include pathogenicity in animals and humans, occurrence in domesticated animals and livestock or only in wildlife, whether the virus is enzootic or epizootic, geographically localized or widespread, and other scientific parameters.

The distinction among phases 3 , 4, and is based on an assessment of the risk of a pandemic. Various factors and their relative importance according to current scientific knowledge may be considered. Factors may include rate of transmission, geographical location and spread, severity of illness, presence of genes from human strains (if derived from an animal strain), and other scientific parameters

This is scary stuff.

The only report that I have heard of on a human to human transfer occured a few months ago in Vietnam, and yes it only went from one human to another and then stopped.
The case was of a girl who was staying in the hospital to help care for her brother who had been infected by the avian virus by eating an infected chicken. They were both being given Tamiflu, the girl was recieving it as part of the protocols for infectious diseases.
The girl became a victim of the avian flu through direct contact from her brother. The only reason that the CDC and WHO became awarte of the human-human transfer was that the girl's type of avian flu was resistant to the Tamiflu vaccine.
I wrote this up a few weeks ago with some links. I will seee if I can find the thread and update this thread with the information and links.

I understand the need to have the public remain calm through all this if bird flu were to develop into a epidemic, but I have been watching the news on tv and internet every day.

It concerns me that news coverage of bird flu is almost non-existant now compared to 2 weeks ago.
and then there was a report of a possible infection in Canada but not determined to be type 1.
That was 3 days ago, maybe 5 and there has been NO other news about this, no results from Canada, no other news from Asia or Europe.

with the current interest from our media to report this we would be in the middle of an epidemic with no time to prepare and that would gaurantee a police state or martial law.

You might get more of the answers you are looking for if you start searching on HPAI. I was surprised that HPAI (laymens terms: contagious and deadly avain flu) has been found in the US, Canada, and the Netherlands. The 2 main types they talk about are H7N7 and H5N1. The WHO came out and said that HPAI does go from human to human if someone is around an infected person for a legnth of time. All it is going to take for this H5N1 nightmare to take off like a forest fire, is for one person to get it while they have the flu (the type we all get in the winter time). They have been saying that for years, so it does not surprise me that they are starting to quietly confirm that it is going human to human now. It wont take much. Especially in the winter time with all the holliday traveling, for this to turn into a nightmare. I still cant believe that there are people out there who believe that it is no big deal.

This is worth the read: webmd

[edit on 3-11-2005 by mrsdudara]

HPAI (Highly Pathogentic Avian Influenza) is endemic in a large percentage of the world right now. (Europe, Mid-East and SE Asia) It will soon be world wide, which allows H5N1 a better chance to recombine with a "normal" human strain (H3N2, etc). This larger pool of host organisims will eventually produce the H5N1 variant with the human polymorphism required for substained H2H.

Our only hope is that during this dual infection event (recombination) that H5N1 will lose some of it's virulence in that trade off for sustained H2H.

Everyone here on this board should read the other threads that will help you survive a pandemic. Also stock up on the natural anti-virals. I plan on drinking a lot of elderberry wine myself.

H5n1 Avian flu has already been spreading human to human, in vietnam, and I think now indonesia (?) and its thought to have done so in china. But luckily its been contained.

Its been spreading from country to country because of wild migratory fowl, they're infected with it, they traverse continents, and they easily infect other fowls, like ducks and chickens. The vast majority of human infections have been pickups from birds. This existence of an animal population that can infect humans is called, btw, a 'zoonosis'.

There isn't already a pandemic of h5n1 avian flu amoung humans because people having been droppping dead from it.


There is no flu vaccine shortages nationally (US) , but thats irrelevant, because the H5n1 variant of Avian Flu is something completely different.


There is no h5n1 avian flu vaccine, and there is no cure. There is only, currently, a drug called Tamiflu, and what this does is reduce the symptoms of flus in general and sometimes this lets people with a deadly flu survive. However its been found that this h5n1 avian flu is pretty resistant to even the assuaging effects of tamiflu.

Originally posted by Nygdan
Snip...
There is no h5n1 avian flu vaccine, and there is no cure. There is only, currently, a drug called Tamiflu...

Agreed. It's also interesting to note that Tamiflu is only effective at 10 times the recommended dosage. That's something that has not made the MSM yet.

It's also interesting to note that Tamiflu is only effective at 10 times the recommended dosage. That's something that has not made the MSM yet.

This is true. I was listening to the morning news and they were saying that our gov of MN has a plan in place to act as quickly as possible by vaccinating our state and supplying those sick with Tamiflu.

My first thought was this was BS. Already our states and gov are lying to the people. First if this were to hit home this winter there isn't a vaccine available and secondly as quoted above Tamiflu will only be effective triple fold of dosage if not more. Currently the US ranks 17th in line for a full stockpiling of the antiviral.

And yes, it is true that there have been human to human transmissions. There have been numerous clusters in Indonesia with families passing it along to other family members. The missing link in all of this is the recombinant. Although families have been thought to have passed it along doesn't mean the virus has made the swap genetically.

2 things we need to be on the look out for:

Antigenic drift - (this is safer) and means that the virus has swapped one or two genes to form into a new virus and maybe a less deadly one.
If for example it swapped genetic material with an H2 strain and we were vaccinated with serum from that strain then we would stand a better chance of surviving the mutated flu.

Antigenic shift - (bad news) this means that the virus has swapped all of it's genetic material. genetic change that enables a flu strain to jump from one animal species to another, including humans.

This can happen in three ways:

Antigenic Shift 1 (has already happened)

A duck or other aquatic bird passes a bird strain of influenza A to an intermediate host such as a chicken or pig.
A person passes a human strain of influenza A to the same chicken or pig.
When the viruses infect the same cell, the genes from the bird strain mix with genes from the human strain to yield a new strain.
The new strain can spread from the intermediate host to humans.

Antigenic Shift 2 (this has already happened)

Without undergoing genetic change, a bird strain of influenza A can jump directly from a duck or other aquatic bird to humans.

Antigenic Shift 3 (This is what we are waiting for)

Without undergoing genetic change, a bird strain of influenza A can jump directly from a duck or other aquatic bird to an intermediate animal host and then to humans.
The new strain may further evolve to spread from person to person. If so, a flu pandemic could arise

Hopefully this will all wait a year or two longer to where we actually have a vaccine readily available.

DDay...Hi

Efficient Human to Human Transmission Via H5N1 / H9N2 Recombination

Recombinomics Commentary
October 22, 2005

In the upcoming Virology paper "Evolution of the receptor binding phenotype of influenza A (H5) viruses, Gambaryan et al screen H5 isolates for affinity for human Sia2-6Gal (human-like) receptors. Two isolates, A/Hong Kong/212/2003 and A/Hong Kong/213/2003 were identified. Both isolates had the S227N polymorphism.

These two isolates were from bird flu patients who had returned from a visit to Fujian province, The daughter had died in China with bird flu symptoms. The two isolates were from her brother and father. The father subsequently also died. Thus, the change in receptor binding was associated with a familial cluster that probably involved human to human transmission.

Although the S227N change requires a simple G/A transition, it is rare. This is similar to another polymorphism E627K in PB2. The change is also encoded by a A/G transition, but is strictly conserved. E was exclusively in avian H5N1 isolates and K was found in all human isolates. The conservation could be explained by selection which may have been further restricted by opportunities for recombination. The conservation was broken at Qinghai Lake, where all 16 avian isolates contained the human E627K polymorphism.

Similarly, the lack of S227N in H5N1 may be related to a lack of recombination opportunities. As H5N1 expands its global reach via spread by long range migratory birds, the potential for new recombination targets generating novel genetic changes increases.

A search of the Los Alamos flu database using a 10 nucleotide probe representing the S227N polymorphism identified 42 exact matches. All were in HA and all isolated after 1998 were in the Middle East in chickens, turkeys, geese, and an ostrich.

H9N2 has become endemic in Israel and millions of migratory birds will be passing through the area in the upcoming days. Thus, the potential for dual infections by H9N2 and H5N1 is high. The 10 nucleotides of identity offers an opportunity for homologous recombination that would create the S227N polymorphism and increase the efficiency of H5N1 human transmission.

Efforts to limit the exposure of H9N2 infected birds to H5N1 infected wild birds should be aggressively pursued.

Isolates with donor sequences for S227N acquisition:

AY575869 A/Hong Kong/212/03 2003 H5N1
AB212054 A/Hong Kong/213/03 2003 H5N1
ISDN38262 A/Hong Kong/213/2003 2003 H5N1
AY575870 A/Hong Kong/213/2003 2003 H5N1
AY738456 A/ostrich/Eshkol/1436/03 2003 H9N2
DQ104453 A/turkey/Avigdor/1209/03 2003 H9N2
DQ104454 A/turkey/Avigdor/1215/03 2003 H9N2
DQ104458 A/turkey/Brosh/1276/03 2003 H9N2
DQ104455 A/turkey/Kfar Warburg/1224/03 2003 H9N2
DQ104464 A/chicken/Kfar Monash/636/02 2002 H9N2
DQ104450 A/turkey/Avichail/1075/02 2002 H9N2
DQ104473 A/turkey/Beit HaLevi/1009/02 2002 H9N2
DQ104451 A/turkey/Ein Tzurim/1172/02 2002 H9N2
DQ104462 A/turkey/Givat Haim/622/02 2002 H9N2
DQ104471 A/turkey/Givat Haim/868/02 2002 H9N2
AY548507 A/turkey/Givat Haim/965/02 2002 H9N2
AY738452 A/turkey/Givat Haim/965/02 2002 H9
DQ104459 A/turkey/Kfar Vitkin/615/02 2002 H9
AY548510 A/turkey/Kfar Vitkin/615/02 2002 H9N2
DQ104460 A/turkey/Kfar Vitkin/616/02 2002 H9
AY548511 A/turkey/Kfar Vitkin/616/02 2002 H9N2
AY548512 A/turkey/Mishmar Hasharon/619/02 2002 H9N2
DQ104461 A/turkey/Mishmar Hasharon/619/02 2002 H9
DQ104449 A/turkey/Naharia/1013/02 2002 H9N2
DQ104452 A/turkey/Sapir/1199/02 2002 H9N2
DQ104463 A/turkey/Yedidia/625/02 2002 H9
AY548513 A/turkey/Yedidia/625/02 2002 H9N2
DQ104448 A/turkey/Yedidia/911/02 2002 H9N2
AY548514 A/chicken/Tel Adashim/786/01 2001 H9N2
AY738454 A/chicken/Tel Adashim/786/01 2001 H9
DQ104465 A/chicken/Tel Adashim/809/01 2001 H9
AY548515 A/chicken/Tel Adashim/809/01 2001 H9N2
AY548500 A/chicken/Tel Adashim/811/01 2001 H9N2
DQ104467 A/chicken/Tel Adashim/811/01 2001 H9
AY548501 A/chicken/Tel Adashim/812/01 2001 H9N2
DQ104468 A/chicken/Tel Adashim/812/01 2001 H9
DQ104469 A/goose/Tel Adashim/829/01 2001 H9N2
DQ104470 A/goose/Tel Adashim/830/01 2001 H9N2
AY548499 A/turkey/Givat Haim/810/01 2001 H9N2
DQ104466 A/turkey/Givat Haim/810/01 2001 H9
DQ104472 A/chicken/Maale HaHamisha/90658/00 2000 H9N2
AY738451 A/turkey/Neve Ilan/90710/00 2000 H9
AY548502 A/turkey/Neve Ilan/90710/00 2000 H9N2
AF218108 A/Peking Duck/Malaysia/F20/1/98 1998 H9N2
AF218105 A/Peking Duck/Singapore/F91-5/9/97 1997 H9N2
AY206675 A/quail/Hong Kong/A28945/88 1988 H9N2

(this represents the current circulating strains that could supply H5N1 with the needed componets to start the pandemic. Scary huh?)

From what I have found out, H5N1 just needs E627K

E627K is also in the grebe (wild bird with no symptoms).

E627K was never found in a bird isolate before Qinghai Lake. However it is in ALL human isolates (H1, H2, H3). Some H5N1 from mammals (humans and tigers) have E627E and almost all were fatal.

E627K is also associated with ability to grow at lower temperature (the E version grows well at higher temperatures, like those found in cold blooded birds.

Thus, E627K is a human adaptation and it was in ALL (16) Qinghai Lake isolates and now in ALL (2 so far) Novosibirsk isolates.

CORRECTION to the above post...

H5N1 has already aquired E627K.

But IMO the title of this thread should be changed to "CDC finally admits human-to-human H5N1 has occurred."

Good point. If I knew how to change it I would.


gman55> if H5N1 has aquired E627K, then what else is needed for it to go human to human more rapidly than it is now? The S227N? Basicly, can you please put it into laymans terms please? I am still confused as to what E627K and S227N are.

[edit on 4-11-2005 by mrsdudara]

Guys, you need to read the web pages you cite a bit more closely...

Originally posted by soficrow
But IMO the title of this thread should be changed to "CDC finally admits human-to-human H5N1 has occurred."

In fact, they mentioned it eight years ago and mention it yearly as they monitor cases. Hysteria causes us to overlook detail... so... in the CDC web page that was pointed to all of us we have:

What is the risk to humans from the H5N1 virus in Asia and Europe?
The H5N1 virus does not usually infect humans. In 1997. However, the first case of spread from a bird to a human was seen during an outbreak of bird flu in poultry in Hong Kong, Special Administrative Region. The virus caused severe respiratory illness in 18 people, 6 of whom died. Since that time, there have been other cases of H5N1 infection among humans. Recent human cases of H5N1 infection that have occurred in Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam have coincided with large H5N1 outbreaks in poultry. The World Health Organization (WHO) also has reported human cases in Indonesia. Most of these cases have occurred from contact with infected poultry or contaminated surfaces; however, it is thought that a few cases of human-to-human spread of H5N1 have occurred

And they've been saying this same thing for several years.

The last time avian flu made the rounds, we had similar Proclaimations Of Doom. We had the same PoD with SARS, with an ebola outbreak, with any mention of an outbreak of an exotic disease. So we watch the hysterical news and focus on the "new and deadly" while some of the Old Familiars go unnoticed.

Like polio.
Like pneumonia.
Like diptheria.

Look up the stats on those sometime and compare to the 60-plus deaths from H5N1.

The danger of hysteria is that we shriek "WOLF" at a "possible mutation" and "disaster scenario" and we forget to look at the REAL danger around us.

"The last time avian flu made the rounds, we had similar Proclaimations Of Doom. We had the same PoD with SARS, with an ebola outbreak, with any mention of an outbreak of an exotic disease. So we watch the hysterical news and focus on the "new and deadly" while some of the Old Familiars go unnoticed.
Like polio.
Like pneumonia.
Like diptheria. "

www.counterpunch.com...
Like cancer
It's in the Air We Breathe, the Water We Drink, the Food We Eat, the Houses We Live In, the Places Where We Work...
Why We Can't Prevent Cancer
By PETER MONTAGUE

In 1999, cancer surpassed heart disease as the number one killer of people younger than 85 in the U.S.[1] Now a detailed report on the causes of cancer tells us why: cancer has been steadily increasing in the U.S. for 50 years as people have been exposed to more and more cancer-causing agents, including chemicals and radiation.


So keep heating up that macaroni on your plastic paper plates in your microwave, and breathe in that new VW diesel exhaust- then call me in the morning.

Not sure i've i'm going to be scared anymore.


Is it just me or is there always some kind of mortal threat bestowed upon us every couple of years by the government?

Small Pox
Anthax
Sadam dropping chemical/bio weapons on us
now h5n1

Didn't they scare us into believing small pox was going to be an pandemic?

Sure it's been transmitted from chicken to human, possibly one or two cases of human to human contact by those two working within proximity to one another on the CHICKEN FARM!

If this kills 150 million, which I doubt, I'll eat my hat.
And I doubt it will even infect 20,000 people.

The fact that our govt. is going to spend $7.1 billion to try to fight this super flu should tell you something. I was not scared of the others because they did not seem likely. This is way too likely. There is a cold/flu strain called RSV, for adults it is nothing. Infants can not fight it off. My oldest son was in the hospital for 3 days when he was 6 weeks old because he had this cold/flu thing that his body could not fight off. Luckly he is fine and didnt suffer any after effects from it. I do not ever want to see any of my children sick like that again. The flu is very serious. A super flu, that most of us especially our children have no immunity to is terrifing, and very real.