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TROPICAL STORM BETA FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
At 5 a.m. Thursday, Tropical Depression 26 became Tropical Storm Beta, the 23rd tropical storm of the 2005 Atlantic season. The storm was located near 11.4 north and 81.8 west, or about 140 miles east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua and 75 miles south of San Andres Island. It is slowly moving toward the northwest near 5 mph and has sustained winds near 40 mph. Estimated central pressure is 1005 millibars or 29.68 inches.
A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are in effect for the islands of San Andres and Providencia. A tropical storm warning is also in effect for the entire Caribbean coast of Nicaragua from the border with Costa Rica to the Honduras border, as well as the adjacent islands.
8 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005
...BETA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES... 115 KM... SOUTH OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 135
MILES... 220 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.
BETA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH... 6
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
At 11 a.m. Thursday, Tropical Storm Beta, the 23rd tropical storm of the 2005 Atlantic season, was located near 11.5 north and 81.3 west, or about 175 miles east of Bluefields, Nicaragua and 75 miles south-southeast of San Andres Island. Beta is drifting o the north and this is expected to continue over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph. Estimated central pressure is 1000 millibars or 29.53 inches.
If the moon was hovering over it like around the 20th of Sep and Oct, then we'd probably have a giant hurricane. Wait till around the 20th of Nov, Hurricane Gamma will whoop ass.
2 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005
...CORRECT PRESSURE IN REPEAT SECTION...
...TROPICAL STORM BETA STRENGTHENING AND RE-LOCATED EASTWARD...NEW
WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES... 115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
160 MILES... 260 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.
BETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE
CENTER OF BETA NEAR SAN ANDRES ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
The Hurricane Season of 2005 remains unrelenting. Tropical Storm Beta formed this morning over the warm ocean waters of the southwest Caribbean, just north of Panama. Given the ideal environment for intensification setting up in the southwest Caribbean, this is likely to become Hurricane Beta by tonight, and could grow to major hurricane status before making landfall in Nicaragua on Sunday.
Recent satellite imagery shows a small but rapidly developing system. There is plenty of growing deep convection, good low-level spiral banding, and a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) forming over the center. An eyewall appears to be forming under the CDO, and there is a good chance we'll be talking about Hurricane Beta by this evening
At 8 p.m. Thursday, Tropical Storm Beta, the 23rd tropical storm of the 2005 Atlantic season, was located near 11.9 north and 81.4 west, or about 160 miles east of Bluefields, Nicaragua and 50 miles south-southeast of San Andres Island. Beta is drifting o the north and this is expected to continue over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph. Estimated central pressure is 997 millibars or 29.4 inches.
8 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005
...BETA CREEPING NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.
BETA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A SLOW NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR SAN ANDRES LATE
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM
FROM THE CENTER MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
estimated near latitude 13.4 north...longitude 81.3 west...near or
over the island of Providencia. This is also about 155 miles...
250 km...east-southeast of Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua.
Beta is moving between the north-northwest and north near 5 mph...7
km/hr. A turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24
hours. On this motion...the center of Beta will continue to be
near or over the island of Providencia for a few more hours.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and
Beta could become a hurricane later tonight or on Saturday.
There is no basic change in the thinking from earlier this afternoon. An upper-level ridge of high pressure is nearby venting the storm, which puts it in an area favorable for gradual intensification. Beta has not intensified as much as expected due to some weak shear and it slow movement. The water temperatures under Beta are warm but the depth of this warm water is not that deep. So, the slow movement of the storm might be having some affect on its ability to strengthen. The current thinking is that pressures are still falling in the storm and it will be just a matter of time before the storm becomes a hurricane. We still believe there is time for Beta to become a Category 2 strength (96-110 mph) before making landfall in Nicaragua sometime Sunday.
An upper-level trough of low pressure will slowly pass across the Gulf of Mexico over the next day or so and should draw Beta slowly more north than west; a track more to the west is likely over the weekend as the trough moves into the Atlantic and high pressure in the mid-levels of the atmosphere builds westward across the Gulf of Mexico and northern Caribbean. However, if Beta gets too far north and west it might find a weakness on the west side of this upper level high which would allow Beta to move northwest and perhaps north next week. This could bring either the remnant circulation and or the rich moisture from Beta northeast towards Cuba. There is some chance this moisture and perhaps remnant circulation could come close to south Florida around Thursday of next week as another strong upper level trough picks up what is left of Beta (storm or remnant low).
As of 7:00 p.m. CDT Saturday, Hurricane Beta was centered near 13.8 north and 82.6 west, or 90 miles south southeast of the coast at the Nicaragua/Honduras border. Beta is moving slowly to the west at about 5 mph with maximum sustained winds now near 90 mph and gusts to 110 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 millibars, or 28.91 inches.
8 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005
...CORE OF BETA GRADUALLY NEARING THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA...
WEATHER EXPECTED TO WORSEN...
BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF HURRICANE BETA NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BETA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL IN
NICARAGUA. BETA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE MAJOR
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 60 MILES... 95 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING ON
PROVIDENCIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF BETA
HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA
...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
BETA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
As of 9:00 a.m. CDT Sunday, Hurricane Beta was centered near 12.7 north and 83.8 west, or on the coast of Nicaragua just inland from La Barra. This is also about 50 miles north of Bluefields, Nicaragua. Beta is moving slowly to the southwest at about 7 mph. Beta has weakened with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph. This makes Beta a Category 1 hurricane. Earlier today Beta peaked in intensity as a Category 3, or major hurricane, on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The estimated minimum central pressure was 980 millibars, or 28.94 inches of mercury.
Today's Discussion Posted: October 31, 2005 6:15 a.m.
The remnants of Hurricane Beta will continue to dissipate over Central
America Monday. Heavy, flooding rains will occur over parts of western Nicaragua and Honduras, as well as El Salvador and southern Guatemala. The center of circulation remaining from Beta should move into the Pacific Ocean later Monday, probably near southern El Salvador. There is a slight chance that this system could reintensify over the eastern Pacific, and perhaps even climb back to hurricane status.