posted on Oct, 18 2005 @ 07:54 PM
First of all, Peak Oil is not about running out of oil, Peak Oil is about running out of cheap, abundant oil.
So, let see, 1 trillion = 1 x 10^12, divided by (85,000,000 barrels of oil per day x 365 days/years) = 32.2 years.
Since during those 32.2 years, the economy is likely to double in size (assuming 2% growth, => 70/2 = 35.0 years)
(assuming 3% growth, => 70/3 = 23.3 years), so you will deplete that trillion in less than 30 years, anywhere from 20 to 30 years.
But since, as I said, Peak Oil doesn't means running out of oil, you could well have in 10 years, a demand in oil that couldn't be match by the
offer, therefore you have big pressure on prices.
If I remember it right, Matthew Simmons (energy banker and former energy advisor of Bush & Cheney) calculated that the price of crude could go as high
as $187.00 US per barrel BEFORE slowing down the world demand (because China & India, etc. will still increase their demand, somewhat no matter
There might still be oil in 100 or 200 years from now, but cheap plentiful, easy light crude, could be a thing of the past, sooner than we think.
Anyway, since those advocates of Peak Oil, put it within 5 years, we will either be amazed of their wisdom or we will laugh at them forever.