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Finally, by Saturday, strong westerly winds will build in behind the trough and carry Wilma rapidly northeastward across South Florida or the waters between Florida and Cuba.
The absolutely critical thing is--where will Wilma stall out? The GFDL model believes Wilma will push inland over the tip of the Yucatan, and spend two days overland, and weaken to a tropical storm. The UKMET model believes Wilma will stall in the Yucatan Channel, and not lose much strength. The other models have modest variations on these two themes. The difference in postions is only 100 miles or so. This is impossible to reliably forecast even 12 hours in advance, given the weak steering currents that are likely to exist Friday. Will will just have to wait and see what happens. Very small changes in storm position will cause huge changes in Wilma's intensity.
A long encounter with the Yucatan Peninsula would cause a serious disruption of the hurricane. While the waters are still warm enough to support intensification once she starts moving through the Gulf of Mexico towards Florida, there will be increasing wind shear associated with the westerly winds driving Wilma that will inhibit intensification. In addition, Wilma will only have a day or so to intensify, as the westerly winds will accelerate her to a forward speed of about 30 mph once she approaches Florida. Wilma's likely intensity once she reaches Florida is tropical storm to Category 3 strength.
Originally posted by worldwatcher
Can anyone tell me the reasoning for why Wilma is expected to be only a Cat 1 when it makes it to the East Coast of Florida???
If this storm stays true to the forecasted path, wouldn't it go over the Everglades and since the Everglades is basically flat with water, wouldn't it maintain it strength?
Statement as of 1:00 PM CDT on October 20, 2005
...Wilma moving slowly northwestward toward the Yucatan...
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some re-strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
In addition, Wilma will only have a day or so to intensify
11 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005
WILMA CONTINUES ON ITS WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING...295/6...WHICH
REMAINS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. FOR THIS
REASON...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ON THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAOB DATA IN FLORIDA AND TEXAS SUGGEST THAT
RIDGING IN THE GULF IS WEAKENING AND IT IS STILL EXPECTED THAT
WILMA WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET ARE BEING INGESTED INTO
THE 12Z MODELS AND WE WILL SOON SEE WHAT IMPACT THESE DATA HAVE ON
THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE BASIC SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED.
RIDGING IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WILMA ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS A GENERALLY SLOWER RECURVATURE AND ACCELERATION.
AS FAR AS THE FLORIDA THREAT IS CONCERNED...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
THREAT REMAINS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
KEYS...AND IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO NARROW THAT DOWN ANY FURTHER.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE'S
HIGHEST WINDS ALREADY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL.
ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...
RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE PROGRESSES...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE
STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN. WILMA IS NOW EXPECTED TO
SPEND ENOUGH TIME IN OR NEAR THE YUCATAN TO RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER STORM IN THE GULF WHEN IT APPROACHES FLORIDA.
Originally posted by Gazrok
She's riding in between the steering systems. I'm assuming they think those steering winds will be further south, hence pushing it that way...
Originally posted by Gazrok
I see, it's still slower than they thought though....
Also, depending on strength, the steering currents could be less of a factor.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2005
WILMA HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD...310/5...BUT THIS IS NOT NECESSARILY
THE BEGINNINGS OF RECURVATURE. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERLIES...THE OLD LOW FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE PAST THE
LONGITUDE OF THE HURRICANE BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE TRACK
MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT BEND BACK TO THE LEFT AS A LITTLE RIDGING
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. IN FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW
SUGGESTING THAT IT MAY TAKE THREE SHORT WAVES TO LIFT WILMA OUT OF
THE YUCATAN. THE GFDL DID ANOTHER BIG SHIFT WITH ITS 5-DAY
FORECAST...FROM CANADA AT 6Z TO CUBA AT 12Z. THERE IS LESS SPREAD
IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THIS TIME...HOWEVER...LENDING A LITTLE
MORE CREDENCE TO A SLOWER TRACK. THE 12Z MODELS ALSO HAD THE
BENEFIT OF DROPWINDSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET. THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS
STILL VERY MUCH FASTER THAN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THIS
IMPLIES THAT THE IMPACT TO FLORIDA COULD WELL BE LATER THAN
THERE IS VERY LITTLE LEFT OF THE INNER EYEWALL...AND REPORTS FROM A
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT WILMA IS BEGINNING TO
RESTRENGTHEN. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 145 KT...AND THE SFMR
INSTRUMENT ONBOARD MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 125 KT IN THE NORTH
EYEWALL. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 130 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG AND
WILMA WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STATUS
BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN...AND THE IMPACTS THERE COULD BE
CATASTROPHIC. WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MORE EXTENDED INTERACTION
WITH THE YUCATAN INCREASING...SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE WILMA TURNS TOWARD FLORIDA. IN ADDITION...THE LONGER WILMA
LINGERS BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD...THE MORE HOSTILE THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF
Please, if you insist on feeding us your propoganda bull#, please provide some sort of evidence.
Originally posted by dgtempe
Superstorm is the name now- yesterday it was nothing....if anyone read my previous post scientists know this one is being steered. I beleive it. They have a close eye on it-
I truly beleive this is THE new weapon of mass destruction.
Who's doing it? I dont know.
Hurricane Wilma made its expected turn northwest, and is now headed towards Cozumel Island as an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane capable of massive destruction. A new hurricane hunter plane arrived at the center at 2:45 pm EDT, and found a central pressure of 918 mb and surface winds of 150 mph. The 4:16 pm report had the same pressure and winds, so Wilma has leveled out in intensity. Wilma has completed an eyewall replacement cycle, and now has a large 40 mile diameter eye. Some intensification is likely the next 18 hours before Wilma comes ashore in the Yucatan. It is possible Wilma can eclipse its record 882 mb pressure, but she probably will not have enough time to do that. The rest of his blog
WILMA, A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE, GAINS A LITTLE STRENGTH
As of 5:00 P.M. EDT Thursday, Category 4 Hurricane Wilma had maximum sustained winds near 150 mph. The storm was centered near 18.9 north, 85.7 west, or about 135 miles south-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Wilma is moving northwestward around 6 mph. The minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter aircraft was 918 millibars or 27.11 inches. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the hurricane's center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 200 miles from the hurricane's center. During the past hour, winds at the Cozumel airport were sustained at 45 mph. A buoy located about 95 miles northeast of Wilma was reporting sustained winds of 52 mph with gusts to 67 mph. So, the stronger winds are probably north and northeast of the hurricane's center, which is typical in most hurricanes.
Based on Satellite imagery, the center of Severe Hurricane Wilma is located at 18.6N/85.5W or
about 155NM SSE of Cozumel. The storm is now moving at only 3Kts, to the NW. The eyewall
re-cycling completed this morning, and we now have 35NM diameter eye. The last RECON early
this morning had ended when the eyewall replacement was nearing it's completion, and at
that time, the pressure was 910MB, and MAX surface winds were near 145mph. It is likely the
pressure rose some more, to about 915mb by about noon CDT -- but based on the latest
imagery, showing an increase in convection within the eyewall, increasing subsidence within the
eye, and microwave imagery showing a very intense eyewall ring and feeder band, when the next
RECON reaches the storm late this afternoon, it is likely that WILMA will once again be at CAT
5 intensity, with 160mph surface winds. Ad the pressure will be back to 910mb or lower.
The 12Z model runs are essentially unchanged, and leave us with quite a forecasting challenge. One
that really is beyond the skill level of any model or forecaster. The primary question is the precise
track of the hurricane as it approaches the N corner of the Yucatan. Some of the models keep the
storm just offshore just before turning it sharply to the ENE, while others bring it inland, first near
Cozumel, than just west of Cancun, followed by the turn the ENE, which will then bring it back
out over the very warm waters near the Yucatan Channel. For Florida, landfall is still shown
along the SW coast, somewhere near Ft. Myers, late Sunday night or early Monday -- but the
question of intensity hinges a lot on whether the storm traverses over, or just offshore, of
The rest of Steve Gregory's post