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Hurricane Wilma - Strongest Hurricane Ever Recorded!

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posted on Oct, 19 2005 @ 08:01 PM
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A storm like this is hard to fathom.




posted on Oct, 19 2005 @ 08:06 PM
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You think any of this could be post Katrina hype. An over-reaction?



posted on Oct, 19 2005 @ 08:25 PM
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This image from ACCU Weather updates. The eye of Wilma seems to of reformed. The 8 PM update from NHC has shown very little change in storm strength. Everyone still predicting landfall Sat nite or Sunday west coast of Florida. Barametric Pressure still at 892 mb.



posted on Oct, 19 2005 @ 08:31 PM
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Hi All,

jorgecancun,

I wish you the best and safest luck! Please keep us up to date on your situation, and may the storm do little to no damage where you are.
(I know I am being optomistic, but I really do hope it turns out to be true!)

Mainer,

I think that Katrina opened alot of peoples eyes, and many folks just dont want to take a uneccessary risk, you know? I would rather people erred on the side of caution, than to take a chance. This storm is very large and unpredictable, in terms of how stong she will be when she makes landfall in the US. If she stays on the current predicted paths, then the people in harms way need to do what they think is necessary to prepare. (I know that any severe situation tends to cause most people to panic, which is unfortunate. However, I believe that is why they are warning people so early so as not to create a last min scenario.)


Here is an update from Steve Gregory's Blog on weather underground:



WILMA SEVERE CATEGORY 5 UNDERGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
NEWEST 18z MODEL RUNS ARE DISTINCTLY DIFFERENT -- THOUGH NOT
AS RADICAL - OR SURPRISING - AS IT IS BEING PORTRAYED


NHC and others are talking about a RADICAL Track change -- and while it may turn out that way -- this is a little too much 'track watching' of 'off cycles runs' - involving a storm that is doing loop-Dee-loops and is so intense, the models really are responding to the slightest initialization differences. And not many people understand the biases involved with each model, and where they get their boundary, initialization data.

NHC has not yet changed the forecast track by much -- and that was a SMART move. If we get a 00Z run, which includes the G-IV hi-level surveillance. data -- AND then all the models show the change -- then I believe it.

For now -- the last RECON reported the storm near 17.7N/83.7W - or about 280NM SE of Cozumel. The pressure holding steady at 892MB, with a MAX wind of 148KTS - 160MPH sustained surface winds - and CAT 5 intensity. The storm has beeen undergoing an eye wall replacement cycle today -- so fluctuations in intensity are to be expected.

I'm working on my full update now -- will have around 8PM.

Steve




IR from NHC




Water Vapor from NHC



Here is the latest report from Accuweather: (as of 8pm)




WILMA REMAINS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE, NEW COMPUTER MODELS
SHOW WILMA STALLING OVER THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN

As of 8:00 P.M. EDT Wednesday, Category 5 Hurricane Wilma had maximum sustained winds near 160 mph. The storm was centered near 17.9 north.. ..83.9 west, or about 270 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Wilma is moving west northwest around 7 mph. The hurricane is wobbling in this directing due to the weak steering currents. The minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter aircraft was 892 millibars or 26.34 inches. This morning the pressure fell to a record breaking 882 millibars. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the hurricane's center. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles from the hurricane's center.




[EDIT: there was a rogue smiley in my post]

[edit on 19-10-2005 by sylvrshadow]



posted on Oct, 19 2005 @ 09:13 PM
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Originally posted by trIckz_R_fO_kIdz
I been thinking, once Wilma goes over the Gulf of Mexico would it get more strength since its going be getting all that heat (sorry if someone said this already since i am in hurry didnt have time to read over the topic)? So from what I know this things going be a monster once it passes into the Gulf of Mexico and also pass over the tropic of cancer. Just my theory though, its gonna be like boooomm and we all gonna be like "dannm".
The gulfs waters are cooler then the waters its in now. To Top it off the wind shear should tear it apart a little. Its amazing what you learn when you freak out and do research non stop for an entire day.



posted on Oct, 19 2005 @ 09:27 PM
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I found this interesting report at uWeather.com.



Here is the Paamul [Yucatan Peninsula] update. After a very cloudy morning we did have some blue sky around 11:00am CDT. Now at 2:00pm CDT the Sky is almost overcast with picturesque clouds. There are a few light showers. We have a light breeze from north with winds what feel more and more warmer. The morning [5am CDT] showed 76 Fahrenheit now we have 88. Paamul is boarding up and will evacuate tomorrow. There is a confusion were to go since some of the newest computer models showing landfall on the Yucatan with a turn around and going back to the Caribbean. I was told the mood in the city of Playa del Carmen changed from almost ignorance two days ago to panic right now. There is no gasoline or diesel anywhere between Cancun and Tulum. Groceries seams to be tight. Batteries are out. There is price poaching going on. The Newspapers do their best to bring the panic up."

Jeff Masters also stated a bit of hope for the folks in Florida.



It is quite possible that Wilma would not affect Florida as a hurricane at all; the GFDL model forecasts that Wilma will spend three days over Mexico and emerge off the coast as a tropical storm and pass south of Cuba. So, if I lived in Florida and was thinking about evacuating today, I would wait another day and see what the forecast tomorrow brings. Keep in mind, though, that the NOGAPS model, which is one of the top four models for tracking hurricanes, is still showing that Wilma will pass through the Yucatan Channel and a make landfall in southwest Florida as a major hurricane. The Canadian model is showing this as well.

I guess we will have to wait till morning to find out more about predicted landfall location. It seems everyone is still guessing.



posted on Oct, 19 2005 @ 09:30 PM
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Originally posted by AndrewTB

Originally posted by trIckz_R_fO_kIdz
I been thinking, once Wilma goes over the Gulf of Mexico would it get more strength since its going be getting all that heat (sorry if someone said this already since i am in hurry didnt have time to read over the topic)? So from what I know this things going be a monster once it passes into the Gulf of Mexico and also pass over the tropic of cancer. Just my theory though, its gonna be like boooomm and we all gonna be like "dannm".
The gulfs waters are cooler then the waters its in now. To Top it off the wind shear should tear it apart a little. Its amazing what you learn when you freak out and do research non stop for an entire day.


Oh ok thanks for clearing that up I live in the desert so I do not know anything about huricanes. But I do know what high winds (100 mph) can do... just not 160 mph ones. I guess learn something everyday.



posted on Oct, 19 2005 @ 09:45 PM
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I think it's no coincidence that this hurricane is heading for Cuba and Mexico. This third manmade event will probably destroy them both. And coincidentally just after worldwide nations request the US to lift its blockade of Cuba.



posted on Oct, 19 2005 @ 09:47 PM
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Be safe Floridians and those who may be effected by this... definitely wouldn't want to trade places with you folks. But then again, out here, our only warning is someone shaking our bed, house, and land violently in the middle of the night..
STAY SAFE.



posted on Oct, 19 2005 @ 09:51 PM
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Hi all,

Here is the latest partial update from NHC:




WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
WITH SOME WOBBLES OF THE EYE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS
INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILMA COULD
REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 49 MPH... 79 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH... 90 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 894 MB...26.40 INCHES.


LINK:NHC 11pm Update



posted on Oct, 19 2005 @ 10:05 PM
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Last year we had 85 mph gust and didnt even loose power. We were very lucky. Im sure I can easily survive winds up to 120. But after that the houses structure will start falling apart etc....

Originally posted by trIckz_R_fO_kIdz

Originally posted by AndrewTB

Originally posted by trIckz_R_fO_kIdz
I been thinking, once Wilma goes over the Gulf of Mexico would it get more strength since its going be getting all that heat (sorry if someone said this already since i am in hurry didnt have time to read over the topic)? So from what I know this things going be a monster once it passes into the Gulf of Mexico and also pass over the tropic of cancer. Just my theory though, its gonna be like boooomm and we all gonna be like "dannm".
The gulfs waters are cooler then the waters its in now. To Top it off the wind shear should tear it apart a little. Its amazing what you learn when you freak out and do research non stop for an entire day.


Oh ok thanks for clearing that up I live in the desert so I do not know anything about huricanes. But I do know what high winds (100 mph) can do... just not 160 mph ones. I guess learn something everyday.



posted on Oct, 19 2005 @ 10:53 PM
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Hola Amigos
Sorry amigos but i just came back from my sister ranch 20 miles away from cancun .
Here is my report by 11:30 EDT
Haze 84°F Feels Like 95°F
UV Index: 0 Low
Wind: From NNE at 10 mph
Humidity: 84%
Pressure: 29.79 in.
Dew Point: 79°F
Visibility: 6.0 miles

Since i went out from my apartament , i saw very lonely street exept for the big grosery's store and supermarkets and of course gas stations,
it's seems so calm out there by the streets and them some little wind.. Local Autorities place for tomorrow a mandatory evacuation in Hotels here in Cancun and everybody from Isla Mujeres, everybody is ready and prepare for Wilma.
See you all later



posted on Oct, 19 2005 @ 11:16 PM
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Originally posted by jorgecancun
Hola Amigos
Sorry amigos but i just came back from my sister ranch 20 miles away from cancun .
Here is my report by 11:30 EDT
Haze 84°F Feels Like 95°F
UV Index: 0 Low
Wind: From NNE at 10 mph
Humidity: 84%
Pressure: 29.79 in.
Dew Point: 79°F
Visibility: 6.0 miles

Since i went out from my apartament , i saw very lonely street exept for the big grosery's store and supermarkets and of course gas stations,
it's seems so calm out there by the streets and them some little wind.. Local Autorities place for tomorrow a mandatory evacuation in Hotels here in Cancun and everybody from Isla Mujeres, everybody is ready and prepare for Wilma.
See you all later


Man I hope you and your little spot of heaven will be alright. I love the Cancun, Tulum, Playa del Carmen area. I loved it so much that me and the little lady got married on the beach at the Hotel Occidental Grand Flamenco Xcaret (yeah it is a mouth full to say! LOL). The entire resort sits so close to the water. If a major hurrican hits it....We were planning to return for our 2nd anniversary. Man I hope it makes it!

Jorge stay safe man! El Dios esté con usted!



posted on Oct, 20 2005 @ 12:46 AM
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do you guys think it will stregthen again back up where it was or even stronger. or will it continoue to weaken.



posted on Oct, 20 2005 @ 02:02 AM
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Jorgecancun, you are doing a great job telling us how things are going on, but please, remember when the hurricane is there or the winds increase, stay indoors and safe.

I am afraid this is a very strong hurricane and you are on her path. If you have time, do your best to look for a place to hide and buena suerte. Cuídense.



posted on Oct, 20 2005 @ 05:49 AM
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Hi All,

LOL well, Im up because I apparenly ate to much last night, so here is the 5AM update from a few places:

Basically they all say the same, that Wilma is completing her eye wall cycle replacement and should be re-strengthening soon. (Although they are not sure when--sometime in the next 12-24 hours. Also a weakening trend is expected to follow) They also predict the eye becoming much larger. The tracks have all shifted back to the original predicted path, however now there is some wonder about whether or not she will clip or make a decent landfall in Mexico.

Here is a bit of Steve Gregory's Blog



WILMA WEAKENS DURING EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
DATA RICH 00Z (EDT) MODEL RUNS RETURN TO ORIGINAL TRACK AND
INTENSITY EVOLUTION WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED


As it turns out, the 18Z model runs were somewhat of an aberration from the great consistency shown among the
models for several days now. The 00Z model runs are about as close to continuity as they get, especially when
dealing with a powerful storm that should make a strong recurvature and accelerate rapidly following the turn to
the northeast. The only outlier is the latest GFS! It shows Wilma interacting with the Yucatan, and that woiuld slow
and weaken the storm evenb more. But if noi interaction -- a Major Hurricane will hit southern Florida....

For now -- based on satellite imagery - which shows an eyewall replacement cycle in progress -- I estimate
the central pressure at 900 NHC says 984) with the rising pressure due to the innermost 4NM wide eye giving
way to a 15NM eyewall, along with strong warming of the cloud tops. This warming is a normal diurnal variation,
but it did not occur last night at this time when the storm was in its record breaking deepening phase. Max
winds were last reported at 148Kt she pressure holding steady at 895MB, with a MAX wind of 148KTS -
155 MPH sustained at the surface winds . But with the eyewall replacement, the warming tops, I'll take a run at
125t max wind, 130ph surface winds, still a borderline CAT 4.



Here is the partial NHC's 5AM updated Discussion



AS ANTICIPATED...WILMA IS GOING THROUGH THE WEAKENING PHASE OF AN
EYEWALL CYCLE. THIS IS BASED ON MICROWAVE DATA AND OBSERVATIONS
FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH REPORTED EXCELLENT RADAR
PRESENTATION OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OF 4 AND 40 N MI IN DIAMETER
RESPECTIVELY. THE PLANE ALSO OBSERVED TWO MAXIMUM WIND BANDS...ONE
WITH WINDS OF 121 KNOTS...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 903 MB MEASURED
BY A SONDE...BUT WITH 23 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. THE PRESSURE COULD
THEN BE A FEW MILLIBARS LOWER. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS SPECTACULAR AS IT WAS 12 TO 18 HOURS
AGO AND IN FACT...THE EYE IS OBSCURED AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWN TO 130 KNOTS. THIS MAY BE AN OVERESTIMATE
SINCE THE MAXIMUM WINDS REPORTED SO FAR ARE 121 KNOTS. HOWEVER...WE
ARE ASSUMING THAT THE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION.

WE DO NOT KNOW EXACTLY WHEN AND IF THE STRENGTHENING PHASE OF THE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BEGIN. SINCE IT IS ASSUMED THAT IT
WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE THE
FORMATION OF A LARGE EYE LATER TODAY. THEREAFTER...A PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THERE WILL BE INCREASING WIND SHEAR. WILMA SHOULD THEN BEGIN A
STEADY WEAKENING TREND.



Here is the partial Accuweather 5AM update



As of 5:00 A.M. EDT Thursday, Category 4 Hurricane Wilma had maximum sustained winds near 150 mph. The storm was centered near 18.3 north.. ..85.0 west, or about 195 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Wilma is moving west-northwest around 8 mph. The hurricane is wobbling in this direction due to the weak steering currents. The minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter aircraft was 900 millibars or 26.58 inches. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the hurricane's center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles from the hurricane's center.






The Latest Forcast Tracks (As of Yesterday Evening)






HI-RES IR Image shows the eye has become cloud filled to some degree, and is wider -- the appearance signifies to me (From Weather Underground)



[edit on 10/20/2005 by sylvrshadow]



posted on Oct, 20 2005 @ 07:26 AM
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I agree with that GFDI path. I thought from the start that this thing would head that way. With the way it is acting, they will probably get the worst of this storm.

My heart goes out to all of you in the path of this storm. I pray that everyone keeps to their senses and no one tries anything stupid. If it is comming your way, please leave. Your life is more valuable than anything you own.



posted on Oct, 20 2005 @ 08:08 AM
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Sadly, I think the AVNI path is the one this will take. I hope I'm wrong though...as I usually am,
Although, I usually do get the landfall point right a day before they do, hehe....like with Katrina and Rita. We'll know more Friday night to be able to more correctly guess the FL landfall point. I just don't see it making that 90 degree right they keep predicting.



posted on Oct, 20 2005 @ 08:58 AM
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Hola Amigos
Buenos dias here I am with my first report of the day, by 9:45 EDT

Cloudy 75°F Feels Like 79°F
UV Index: 0 Low
Wind: From NE at 13 mph
Humidity: 94%
Pressure: 29.75 in.
Dew Point: 73°F
Visibility: 4.0 miles

I went to the roof of this complex of apartaments where I live and let me tell you that weather condition doesn't look to good, we starting to get Showers accompanied by little gusty winds at times. I saw also the Local Tv station showing the hotels zone , and it's looking bad at the sea, big waves , even that Wilma it's about 205 miles away from Cancun.
I will try to log in again later from my sister house , that's where my all family agree to spend the day and hang out trought Wilma passing by.
As I mention yesterday I all ready have to prepare my apartament hoping that will hold on this Huracan.
Thanks so much for all of those who express they concern about your new friend, I had been member of this site for a few months i realy enjoy reading most of the topics but as you can see my English it's Not too Good.
Hasta la Vista Amigos



posted on Oct, 20 2005 @ 09:04 AM
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Actually, your English isn't that bad at all...es muy bueno....


Thanks for the update.

We in the states probably won't really know where it's going till about Friday night, as far as the US is concerned.




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