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8 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005
...WILMA UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS
WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A
HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
WHILE THE CENTER HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...WILMA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8
MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
As of 8 PM EDT. A hurricane reconnaissance aircraft reported a pressure down to 954 millibars or 28.17 inches. The flight level winds have increased from 86 mph to 116 mph. In general 10% is taken off these winds to correspond to estimated surface winds. That roughly gives an estimated surface wind of about 100 mph. Given that we have had a drop of 16 millibars in pressure during the past 2 hours suggest Wilma is undergoing rapid intensification similar to what happened with Katrina and Rita. Often it takes 2-6 hours for the winds to correspond to this drop in pressure. So, its a good bet that Wilma is a category 2 hurricane and should become a category 3 hurricane by Wednesday morning. At this rate its very possible Wilma will become a category 4 hurricane before it reaches the Yucatan Channel Thursday night.
Wilma remains in an area favorable for strengthening. The water temperatures and depth of very warm water (80 degrees Fahrenheit or greater) is in place over the northwest Caribbean. Upper Level winds remain light but are in a position to vent the outflowing air at the top of Wilma. Given both the very warm water and the potential for excellent upper level venting this hurricane is in a position to intensify fairly quickly during the net 24-36 hours. So, hurricane watches have been issued for the eastern Yucatan and for western Cuba including the Isle of Youth.
WILMA IS UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND IS CLOSE TO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE
As of 11:00 PM EDT Tuesday, Hurricane Wilma had maximum sustained winds of near 110 mph. The storm was centered near 16.8 north .... 82.1 west, or about 180 miles south of Grand Cayman. The minimum central pressure estimated by satellite was 945 millibars or 27.91 inches or a drop of 25 millibars in about 6 hours.
Originally posted by Indy
All I can say is that I hope this is wrong....
URNT12 KNHC 190446
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
B. 16 deg 52 min N
081 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 516 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 116 deg 162 kt
G. 15 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 901 mb
I. 17 C/ 1537 m
J. 26 C/ 1557 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NE QUAD 04:31:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
If this isn't an error then Wilma is a Cat 5 at the 2am advisory.
[edit on 10/18/2005 by Indy]
Originally posted by Indy
The NHC came out with a 1am advisory and have listed the storm at only 150mph with a 901mb low. Without a change to the pressure in the next 2 to 3 hours you should see the cat 5 upgrade. BTW the drop to 901mb means this storm dropped 82mb in 24 hours. In all my years of following this I have never seen anything like it.
RECON JUST REACHED. WILMA IT IS AN UNBELIEVABLE SUPER CAT 5 --> 901MB, WITH 162kts!!!! OVER A 50mb DROP IN 5 HOURS - THE SAME RATE AS RITA. 2 MORE HOURS OF THIS IT COULD EASILY BREAK THE ALL TIME
RECORD LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN OF 888MB.
IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS. And the 850mb height was reported at 516 meters. The pressure reading was extyrapolated -- and we should see a dropsonde reading shortly.
I will continue to update this section during the next hour.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE TODAY.
URRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 155 MILES...250 KM. NOAA BUOY 42057 RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
TO NEAR 60 MPH...96 KM/HR.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IS 901 MB...26.61 INCHES.
Statement as of 2:30 am EDT on October 19, 2005
data from a reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Hurricane Wilma
has become an extremely dangerous category five hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. The reconnaissance plane measured
175 mph winds and estimated a minimum pressure of 892 mb. This is
the lowest pressure observed in 2005 and is equivalent to the
minimum pressure of the 1935 Labor Day hurricane in the Florida