Hurricane Wilma - Strongest Hurricane Ever Recorded!, page 3

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reply posted on 18-10-2005 @ 03:23 PM by dangermouse

Well here's the latest vortex message................... pressure down to 970 pretty quickly.........

URNT12 KNHC 182009
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/19:54:00Z
B. 16 deg 36 min N
081 deg 25 min W
C. 850 mb 1169 m
D. 55 kt
E. 335 deg 020 nm
F. 080 deg 075 kt
G. 348 deg 010 nm
H. 970 mb
I. 16 C/ 1526 m
J. 20 C/ 1526 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. RAGGED
M. C10
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0524A WILMA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 75 KT N QUAD 19:50:40 Z
VERY SMALL WIND CENTER

reply posted on 18-10-2005 @ 05:48 PM by Gazrok

Believe it or not, been SO busy these past few days, haven't even checked up on this. Wow.... Seems I'm right at projected ground zero (Tampa Bay).

EDIT: or was...though I simply can't see how they have it making such an abrupt turn like that.... if the latest prediction is true though, be carefull WW, and any other members there, but we in the bay area are prepping also.... I remember last year all too well, and I was one of the fortunate ones. Many close to me lost power for days, almost a week.... After seeing what happened in NO....man.....

Gonna stock up in the next couple of days... Watching this one closely now....

EDIT again: Crap, I'm going to Halloween Horror Nights on Friday night (Orlando), and will mostly likely have to drive back through rainbands...dammit...

[edit on 18-10-2005 by Gazrok]

reply posted on 18-10-2005 @ 06:29 PM by dangermouse

Definitely prepare to be safe Gazrok, WorldWatcher and all other FL ATS'ers. BTW, pressure is down to 963............

"The 5:42 pm EDT hurricane hunter report measured a central pressure of 963 mb, a drop of 7 mb in 1 1/2 hours. The flight level winds also increased from 75 knots to 82 knots. These numbers show that Wilma is rapidily intensifying, and may reach Category 2 status by the 11 pm advisory tonight. The eye diameter is now a very tiny 7 nm (8 miles), the smallest I have ever seen in a hurricane. It will be interesting to see how long Wilma can maintain an eye that small; an early eyewall collapse and eyewall replacement cycle may happen. The eye is now plainly visible on satellite imagery. Spiral banding and upper-level outflow continue to improve and cover a larger area."

Dr. Masters Blog

reply posted on 18-10-2005 @ 06:48 PM by dangermouse

She keeps droppin and droppin.........................

"234
URNT12 KNHC 182328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/23:09:50Z
B. 16 deg 36 min N
081 deg 41 min W
C. 850 mb 1037 m
D. 45 kt
E. 178 deg 049 nm
F. 257 deg 080 kt
G. 167 deg 007 nm
H. 954 mb
I. 18 C/ 1518 m
J. 22 C/ 1524 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C8
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0524A WILMA OB 21
MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 101 KT N QUAD 23:12:10
VERY TIGHT WIND CENTER"

reply posted on 18-10-2005 @ 07:29 PM by darkelf

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

8 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

...WILMA UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS
WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A
HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
WHILE THE CENTER HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...WILMA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8
MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

Wilma is growing rapidly. Floridians need to stock up NOW.

reply posted on 18-10-2005 @ 07:36 PM by dgtempe

Just because this is conspiracy site i will tell you that scientists andRichard Hoagland are saying they are tracking this latest hurricane and it is being STEERED, it appears some kind of lazers are manipulating its course, and they claim, they saw this happening last night. I dont know how, but i will keep up with this.
Now, they saw that someone (something) is trying to change the course of this hurricane.
They say we should watch this one.

reply posted on 18-10-2005 @ 08:20 PM by MagicaRose

I know I said earlier that I'm used to these storms but I'm taking it back now..lol
This storm is looking very scary to me now and I live in Tampa..

reply posted on 18-10-2005 @ 08:38 PM by sylvrshadow

Hi all.

Here is a quick update from accuweather:

As of 8 PM EDT. A hurricane reconnaissance aircraft reported a pressure down to 954 millibars or 28.17 inches. The flight level winds have increased from 86 mph to 116 mph. In general 10% is taken off these winds to correspond to estimated surface winds. That roughly gives an estimated surface wind of about 100 mph. Given that we have had a drop of 16 millibars in pressure during the past 2 hours suggest Wilma is undergoing rapid intensification similar to what happened with Katrina and Rita. Often it takes 2-6 hours for the winds to correspond to this drop in pressure. So, its a good bet that Wilma is a category 2 hurricane and should become a category 3 hurricane by Wednesday morning. At this rate its very possible Wilma will become a category 4 hurricane before it reaches the Yucatan Channel Thursday night.

Wilma remains in an area favorable for strengthening. The water temperatures and depth of very warm water (80 degrees Fahrenheit or greater) is in place over the northwest Caribbean. Upper Level winds remain light but are in a position to vent the outflowing air at the top of Wilma. Given both the very warm water and the potential for excellent upper level venting this hurricane is in a position to intensify fairly quickly during the net 24-36 hours. So, hurricane watches have been issued for the eastern Yucatan and for western Cuba including the Isle of Youth.

Here also is the accuweather predition of the storm track and its category status:

This is an IR image from NHC:

reply posted on 18-10-2005 @ 09:21 PM by AndrewTB

Oh my god im about to have a panic attack over this. PLEASE LORD LET IT TURN!

reply posted on 18-10-2005 @ 09:32 PM by worldwatcher

It's raining in Western Broward county right now, I think it's from the outflow of Wilma trying to intensify.

Prepare tomorrow if you live in South Florida, east and west coast, we'll probably get heavier rainbands as this storm continues to intensify and grow imo

reply posted on 18-10-2005 @ 10:17 PM by sylvrshadow

Hi All,

This Gal is intensifiying rahter quickly. Here is a 11pm Accuweather report:

WILMA IS UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND IS CLOSE TO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE

As of 11:00 PM EDT Tuesday, Hurricane Wilma had maximum sustained winds of near 110 mph. The storm was centered near 16.8 north .... 82.1 west, or about 180 miles south of Grand Cayman. The minimum central pressure estimated by satellite was 945 millibars or 27.91 inches or a drop of 25 millibars in about 6 hours.

Here's a weatherunderground animated map:

I hope that you guys in FL are doing what you can to prepare, just in case. It is still to early to tell what category she will be when she hits FL, but it is better to get ready just in case. I know that if you guys never heard the word Hurricane again, it would still be too soon!!

reply posted on 18-10-2005 @ 11:58 PM by Indy

All I can say is that I hope this is wrong....

000
URNT12 KNHC 190446
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/04:32:40Z
B. 16 deg 52 min N
081 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 516 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 116 deg 162 kt
G. 15 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 901 mb
I. 17 C/ 1537 m
J. 26 C/ 1557 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NE QUAD 04:31:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB

If this isn't an error then Wilma is a Cat 5 at the 2am advisory.

[edit on 10/18/2005 by Indy]

reply posted on 19-10-2005 @ 12:23 AM by Indy

The NHC came out with a 1am advisory and have listed the storm at only 150mph with a 901mb low. Without a change to the pressure in the next 2 to 3 hours you should see the cat 5 upgrade. BTW the drop to 901mb means this storm dropped 82mb in 24 hours. In all my years of following this I have never seen anything like it.

reply posted on 19-10-2005 @ 12:39 AM by jaso109

Originally posted by Indy
All I can say is that I hope this is wrong....

000
URNT12 KNHC 190446
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/04:32:40Z
B. 16 deg 52 min N
081 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 516 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 116 deg 162 kt
G. 15 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 901 mb
I. 17 C/ 1537 m
J. 26 C/ 1557 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NE QUAD 04:31:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB

If this isn't an error then Wilma is a Cat 5 at the 2am advisory.

[edit on 10/18/2005 by Indy]

is that right 162kt winds that is about 185mph. it only says 150 on most websites right now.

reply posted on 19-10-2005 @ 12:43 AM by Indy

Its 162kts x 1.1 to get 178mph flight level.

Trim 15% off to get surface level winds of 151. I thought it was 10% you take off. Guess its 15%. 10% would have had it at 160.

reply posted on 19-10-2005 @ 12:47 AM by Imperium Americana

Originally posted by Indy
The NHC came out with a 1am advisory and have listed the storm at only 150mph with a 901mb low. Without a change to the pressure in the next 2 to 3 hours you should see the cat 5 upgrade. BTW the drop to 901mb means this storm dropped 82mb in 24 hours. In all my years of following this I have never seen anything like it.

LOL Indy I think you Avatar is soo perfect for that comment! LOL. To be honest I did not pay any attention to this storm. I figured the most not worthy aspect of this storm would be it making the letter "W". Jez....WTF is right. And here I was thinking I would not have to worry about losing work time tracking storms until next year!

WW and the rest hope it misses and goes north. I know NO and the panhandle have been blasted but like I said during Rita, I think it is better to "Bounce Rubble" than to make a new disaster area.

reply posted on 19-10-2005 @ 01:29 AM by sylvrshadow

Hi All,

Well, I thought I'd take a quick peek at Wilma before bed, and I was AMAZED at the strength and intensity in just a couple of hours. Here is a brief blog quote from Steve Gregory over at weather underground:

RECON JUST REACHED. WILMA IT IS AN UNBELIEVABLE SUPER CAT 5 --> 901MB, WITH 162kts!!!! OVER A 50mb DROP IN 5 HOURS - THE SAME RATE AS RITA. 2 MORE HOURS OF THIS IT COULD EASILY BREAK THE ALL TIME
RECORD LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN OF 888MB.

IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS. And the 850mb height was reported at 516 meters. The pressure reading was extyrapolated -- and we should see a dropsonde reading shortly.

I will continue to update this section during the next hour.

Steve

Here also is some info from NHC:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE TODAY.

URRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 155 MILES...250 KM. NOAA BUOY 42057 RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
TO NEAR 60 MPH...96 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IS 901 MB...26.61 INCHES.

Here is the Visible IR-- The eye is very small and compact to me:

Here is the NHC Dvorak image:

(This is a link to how to read the Dvorak image: Dvorak Technique explained It basicaly helps to predict how intense a storm is. )

Here is the Water vapor image:

All I can say is WOW!!

reply posted on 19-10-2005 @ 01:34 AM by sylvrshadow

Hi All,

Here is the latest-latest from weather underground as of 2am:

Statement as of 2:30 am EDT on October 19, 2005

data from a reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Hurricane Wilma
has become an extremely dangerous category five hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. The reconnaissance plane measured
175 mph winds and estimated a minimum pressure of 892 mb. This is
the lowest pressure observed in 2005 and is equivalent to the
minimum pressure of the 1935 Labor Day hurricane in the Florida
Keys.

Forecaster Avila