Originally posted by Regenmacher
This might interest you in relation to Pemex oil supply:
Pemex Expects to Cancel Oil Exports
Mexican state oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos said it expects shipments of 10 million barrels in crude oil exports to be canceled after Hurricane
Rita roared through the U.S. Gulf Coast last weekend. ...Seems Stan won't be a problem since they can't refine or deliver what they already have,
due to hurricane Rita.
Yes, that makes perfect sense. I would say it is fair to assume that Stan's presence will have no additional short-term
impact on imports of
Mexican petroleum products for this very reason.
I wonder if Pemex has scaled back production in light of this decision? I have been unable to find any current data on this (maybe in the EIA daily
briefing later today?).
So, therefore, I would say it is safe to assume the only possible impact that Stan could have on future Mexico imports would be if Stan damages the
Mexican production infrastructure, e.g., rigs, pipelines, etc., which as you have pointed out, seems unlikely at this time.
However, one quick note for future reference-- upon revisiting the TAOS model, it seems it models damage estimation to U.S. oil interests only
and is thus of limited use in quantifying estimated damages to Pemex's oil infrastructure.
An additional note on TAOS:
I referenced this experimental model quite frequently with regards to the estimated impact on our oil production facilities in the wake of Rita's
path. While its quantification of estaimted damage to individual areas and/or facilities seems rather accurate, the estimated short-term impact on
the U.S. GOM petroleum production was far too optimistic -- 66.5% of 58.2% of oil and NG production respectively, when as of last Friday the actual
numbers as published in the EIA's daily report
were 94% and 76.4%, respectively.
Thus while the model's estimation of "loss of value" due to wind and/or water damage may be accurate, the estimation on impact to GOM production
was off by almost 50% -- not exactly accurate, and demonstrative of the model's current limitations.