John bull 1
For what it's worth, here are my thoughts...
* Currently some cases of H5N1 are turning up in Indonesia without any identifiable link with human to bird contact meaning that some low level human
to human infection is possibly taking place.
Check. This, of course, appears to already be happening.
* A possible next indication that an pandemic is close would be a cluster of cases in the absence of other animal contact. Quite likely in a hospital
or perhaps a school.
Check. Appears to already be happening. See here.
* A hospital in Indonesia begins strict quarentine procedures.
My sense is that this will not happen until WAY later. Indonesia looks to have poorly coordinated their response to H5N1 and I sincerely doubt they
will anytime soon. Your next event will happen first. See here.
* Other clusters are reported.
Check. Appears to already be happening.
* Some countries impose travel restrictions on people moving from the restricted country. Travel advisories suggest not travelling to Indonesia (if
this is the country it starts in.)
Much later.... Remember these countries appear to either be negligently reporting the status of H5N1 in their countries or willfuly doing so.
Moreover, my sense is that it will explode in a very short period of time in several countries. I think Europe will record the first western cluster,
before the US. My bet is the UK and France who have substantial buisness contacts in the affected Asian region.
* Other cases and then clusters are reported in neighbouring Asian countries.
See comment above.
* Travel restrictions and advisories are extended. Hospitals around the world revise procedures in preparation for a Pandemic.
This is when there will be a MSM explosion.
* Essential key workers in emergency services and government begin a process of vaccination.
Of themselves, but not of the general populous. The math just doesn't work for this one. Moreover, there is some question whether a vaccine is even
possible for more than six months at best! BY then this thing will be well out of control.
* Cases then clusters start to appear around the world. Modern travel means that normal patterns of pandemic spread can be virtually ignored.
My guess is within one to two weeks of travel restrictions and advisories being implemented. Of course, it will be too late.
* Panic buying of food stocks and bottled water begin. People start to stay away from work. Danger of civil unrest.
Only locally, at first, in affected cluster areas. Then as new clusters develop within Europe or the US, 4-6 weeks, you will see this behavior in
* State of Emergency / Marshal law / Restrictions on freedoms of movement (however you want to dress it up) is declared.
Yup, but not all at once. Infected cluster areas will be quaranteed- no highway or air travel... Will look a lot like Berlin after the War. Supplies
will be brought in by the military. If clusters develop outside quaranteend areas, then national air travel will be restricted for non-essential
business. Look in the US for possible nationalization of the airlines. International travel will be halted. We will pull the majority of foreign
deployed military resources to secure domestic enforcement.
[edit on 27-9-2005 by loam]