If Oil Goes Up, The Canadian Dollar Goes Up? Strange?, page
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Topic started on 22-9-2005 @ 09:19 PM by Lord Altmis
This is pretty interesting, I think the canucks are up to something?



www.fxcm.com...


For those not familiar with currency, CAD/JPY is a currency pair. Currency pairs are set to a default of buy the first sell the second. So the CAD/JPY is saying buy the Canadian Dollar and Sell the Japanese Yen.

The chart is showing that historical when oil prices go up, the canadian dollar is worth more and the Japanese is worth less.

But why would the Canadian dollar be worth more? And why the 87% positive correlation? Very strange I think but interesting.

www.fxcm.com...*215


reply posted on 23-9-2005 @ 04:14 AM by Lord Altmis
Originally posted by djohnsto77
Originally posted by Dulcimer
If you want a real mystery, tell me why gas prices rise in Canada when a hurricane hits in the united states.


I think it shot up in Europe too...

Ask the petroleum corporations


Oil corps wish! The real reason (most don't seem to know) is because oil prices are run on a free market system and prices can be locked in via commodity futures contracts. Essentially oil investors/companies can all buy up oil at certain price levels or if speculators feel they will ahead of time, they can start buying it up, running up prices.

Although technically they don't physically own the barrels, they own the right to own the barrels at a certain price (contract). They are the ones who run up prices on this tulip called oil.

And it actually has very little to do with companies or opec raising prices. They aren't raising anything, they can't just go in and change the price. It's not wal-mart. What governments and oil companies can do however is purchase up contracts at certain prices as a hedge and then start requesting delivery for distribution.

Say they own contracts on oil at the $67/$3 a gallon level, and oil skyrockets to $100+, technically they can say we'll lock you in at $3 a gallon meaning that although they will have the right to sell it back in the open market at possibly $5+ a gallon for a profit since they got it for $67 a barrel, they won't try to make a profit and will sell it back at the same price they got it for (at cost).

The odds of that happening from a company are very laughable considering they would be going against their own mission statement and shareholders interest and could possible even be fired. The shareholders could literally then fire an oil company CEO for acting against their interests by voting them out. So that's probably not going to happen.

Another way is that the government of certain countries could buy contracts and lock in prices or say you cannot sell oil for more than this price and come to a uniform agreement.

But as far as governments doing either, I think that is a slippery slope. Depending on the scale of a goverment doing that, either one of two things could happen, the artificial ceiling could place so much pressure on oil and suppy constraints that it literally skyrockets to the moon, or investors will see it as a cap and get out, and oil would then gap right back down.

Historically on govt intervention on commodities, for example in around 1970 i believe it was, gold wasn't allowed to pass a certain price level or be sold for more than a certain amount. Right after they lifted that price level/cap on gold, I believe it was in the 70s, gold skyrocketed.

So we'll see.

[edit on 23-9-2005 by Lord Altmis]
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