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While all eyes have been understandably focused on Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, a series of articles about a potential disaster of a different kind
have littered the news headlines in the recent weeks. On Wednesday, September 8, 2005, the
World
Health Organization (WHO) warned a
pandemic of bird flu was inevitable, potentially killing
millions of people across the globe.
Bird flu pandemic inevitable, says WHO
The World Health Organization (WHO) yesterday warned that a pandemic of the bird flu strain lethal to humans is inevitable, and would likely kill
between one and seven million people worldwide…
Dr. Jai P. Narain, Director of WHO's communicable diseases department, took time out from a Southeast Asia health summit in Sri Lanka to tell the
press: "We may be at almost the last stage before the pandemic virus may emerge.
Whether the avian influenza pandemic will occur, that is not the
question any more, but as to when the pandemic will occur."
more…
On Sunday, September 18, 2005, the Independent Online published an article concerning two studies conducted by Nottingham University and the Bank of
Montréal, describing a "global economic catastrophe" should a bird flu pandemic occur.
Bird flu could cause global economic catastrophe .
Bird flu threatens to cause a "catastrophic" economic crash in Britain and around the world, unprecedented in modern times, according to new
research.
Two studies from Nottingham University and the Bank of Montreal in Canada show that a flu pandemic - described by the World Health Organization last
week as inevitable - would slash at least £95bn from British GDP, extinguish at least 900,000 jobs and create a global depression to rival that of
the 1930s
...
So far about 60 people are known to have died from the virus, about half of those infected. Experts fear that it will mutate to spread rapidly among
people, killing tens - perhaps hundreds - of millions worldwide. Last week Dr Lee Jong-wook, director-general of the World Health Organization, said
the mutation was inevitable and "just an issue of timing". Publicly the Government says that more than 50,000 people are likely to die in Britain,
but privately it is preparing for up to 750,000 deaths. Earlier this year Professor Hugh Pennington, one of the country's experts, said that the
British death toll could reach two million.
more…
On Tuesday, September 20, 2005, Dr. Hitoshi O#ani, the World Health Organization's Asian communicable diseases expert, indicated that once a pandemic
began, it would be unlikely that we could do very much to stop it before many would die.
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World has slim chance to stop flu pandemic
NOUMEA, New Caledonia (Reuters) - The initial outbreak of what could explode into a bird flu pandemic may affect only a few people, but the world will
have just weeks to contain the deadly virus before it spreads and kills millions.
Chances of containment are limited because the potentially catastrophic infection may not be detected until it has already spread to several
countries, like the SARS virus in 2003. Avian flu vaccines developed in advance will have little impact on the pandemic virus.
It will take scientists four to six months to develop a vaccine that protects against the pandemic virus, by which time thousands could have died.
There is little likelihood a vaccine will even reach the country where the pandemic starts.
That is the scenario outlined on Tuesday by Dr Hitoshi O#ani, the man who was on the frontline in the battle against SARS and now leads the fight
against avian flu in Asia.
…
"The pandemic virus is much more difficult, maybe impossible, to contain once it starts," he told Reuters at a WHO conference in Noumea, capital of
the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia. "The geographic spread is historically unprecedented."
more…
On the same day, in a
www.recombinomics.com..." target="_blank" class="postlink" rel="nofollow"> Recombinomics Commentary, Jakarta’s Minister
of Health, Siti Fadilah Supari, indicated that there was now strong evidence that
MERE CASUAL CONTACT was sufficient for H5N1 human to human
transmission.
Clearly, the world is in for a rough ride.
The map below identifies confirmed or suspected cases of H5N1 found in wild birds from August of this year to the first week in September.
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Color coded circles for wild bird H5N1: (confirmed or suspected in confirmed location)
May = Blue
June = Orange
July = Yellow
August 15 = Green
August 31 = Red
Current = Purple
Green or Red squares are unconfirmed bird deaths in unconfirmed locations
-------------------------------------------
The following map contains data running from May through September of this year. It displays cases of humans displaying symptoms of bird flu
infection, as well as large bird deaths that are either suspected of infection or remain unexplained.
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Notice the steady westward march potentially into Europe, the new cases found in Japan, and the heavy concentration of infections found in Kazakhstan
and southern Russia.
When you read media reports concerning bird flu, there is a disproportionate focus on infected chickens, ducks, and geese. I supposed to some degree
this is to be expected. In 1997, Hong Kong became the site of the
jama.ama-assn.org..." target="_blank" class="postlink" rel="nofollow"> first confirmed cases of
H5N1 human infection. Initially, seven people, and possibly an eight, were found to have been infected with H5N1. However, only one (a three
year old boy) could be traced back to a potential connection with sickened poultry. The remaining six cases did not have contact with one another and
lived in separate parts of Hong Kong.
Predictably, authorities slaughtered some 2 million chickens as a preventative measure to keep the disease from spreading. But in 2004, a
new major outbreak of H5N1 occurred in Vietnam and Thailand's poultry industry, and by the present
date, spread to a dozen or more locations spanning most of southern Asia. Accordingly, it is estimated that an additional 250 million birds (chickens,
ducks, geese) have been slaughtered in an effort to contain the spreading infection.
Few can argue against the fact that these mass slaughters of poultry are a prudent move. However, the problem with H5N1 is that it is also found in
other domesticated animals, wild birds, and other mammals.
Infection in Domestic Cats
Cats can spread deadly bird flu
Avian Influenza H5N1 in Tigers and Leopards
Tiger Deaths
Mice and Ferrets
Waterfowl, Sea Birds, Shore Birds
If Jakarta’s Minister of Health is correct that mere casual contact alone is sufficient for human to human transmission, it will take nothing short
of the miracle to prevent this pandemic from occurring.
But let's just assume for the moment that Jakarta's Minister of Health is incorrect.
For now, most governments are forbidding or severely restricting the importation of poultry or swine. In the United States, for example, the
USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS)
indicates:
As a primary safeguard against the introduction of HPAI (H5N1) into the United States, APHIS maintains trade restrictions on the importation of
poultry and poultry products from affected countries. In many of these countries, APHIS had prior poultry and poultry product import restrictions in
place because they were also know to have exotic Newcastle disease (END). The import restrictions targeted against END also effectively mitigate HPAI
risk. These restrictions include
- Prohibiting the importation of live birds and hatching eggs from H5N1 affected countries.
- Requiring imports of poultry products from East and Southeast Asia be processed or cooked in accordance with a USDA permit prior to importation to
lower the risk of HPAI contamination to negligible levels.
- Requiring all imported birds be quarantined at a USDA bird-quarantine facility and be tested for the avian influenza virus before entering the
country. This requirement now covers returning U.S.-origin pet birds.
APHIS has developed a risk assessment that specifically considers the threat to the United States of HPAI introduction from Southeast Asia. This
assessment is helping APHIS to identify and closely monitor pathways that are vulnerable to potential HPAI (H5N1) introduction. APHIS has alerted the
U.S. Department of Homeland Security to be especially vigilant in performing agricultural inspections for prohibited products at U.S. Ports-of-entry
handling passengers and cargo from Asia. Additionally, APHIS has increased its monitoring of domestic commercial markets for illegally smuggled
poultry and poultry products.
APHIS is working closely with international organizations like the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and the United Nations' Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to assist HPAI-affected countries and other neighboring Asian-Pacific countries
with disease prevention, management, and eradication activities. By helping these countries prepare for, manage, or eradicate HPAI (H5N1) outbreaks,
APHIS can reduce the risk of the disease spreading from overseas to the United States.
Whether our import controls are sufficient to protect infection of domestic stock is something I will explore later. But for now, let’s discuss the
role of
migratory birds?
To be sure, the fact that H5N1 has been detected in migratory bird populations suggests there is some risk that infected wild bird populations might
more quickly further spread the disease.
But is that risk significant?
Authorities are quite mixed in the answer.
Bird Migrations to Blame?
In an August 30, 2005, Reuters article, headlines read:
Experts see Alaska as US front against bird flu
Bird experts working in some of the most remote areas of Alaska have begun checking migrating birds for avian influenza to see if they are spreading
the feared virus out of Asia.
A team heads off later this week for the Alaskan Peninsula to test Steller's eiders, a type of duck, for the virus, U.S. Geological Survey experts
said. Other teams have already begun testing geese and ducks in other refuges, taking advantage of regular ecological studies to test birds migrating
from Asia for the H5N1 virus.
"We think that Alaska is likely to be the front line," said Hon Ip, a virologist at the USGS National Wildlife Health Center in Madison, Wisconsin.
Other states are vulnerable, too, he said.
"There are birds that fly directly across the Pacific from Southeast Asia to our western states like California, Oregon and Washington," Ip added in
a telephone interview.
...
No one is sure how it is spreading, but migrating birds are a prime suspect. Officials fear birds such as ducks and geese could bring the virus to
Western Europe, Africa and the Middle East over coming months.
The USGS wants to help keep an eye out for it in North America.
"We also worry that birds will stop off in some of the U.S. territories in the Pacific like Guam, and Hawaii," Ip said. He is especially concerned
about endangered species of birds.
Some have even attempted to loosely compare wild bird migration routes with the disease’s spread.
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Many ornithologists, however, doubt a substantial connection.
In one well reasoned analysis, a Dr. William’s notes:
Dead Ducks Don't Fly
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I hope this will help show why it's ridiculous to blame the rapid spread of the H5N1 variant on east Asia's migratory birds. The gist of the
argument is summarized on the right of the figure - birds wintering in the south had departed South Korea and Japan before their outbreaks began;
hadn't even arrived in southern areas (especially Indonesia) as outbreaks began there. And China - crossroads for most of the migration routes -
didn't even report outbreaks till January, well after the autumn migration had ended.
Further, the chief bird flu hosts - ducks and geese - mainly winter towards the north of the region. Geese, especially, are hardy birds, rare south of
central China. Ducks reach the south China coast, including Hong Kong, in numbers, but ducks from elsewhere head to Thailand; and all northern ducks
are rare in Indonesia.
Shorebirds travel the longest distances of all the waterbirds (excluding seabirds, which don't seem relevant). Yet their migration timings also
don't fit those of the outbreaks, nor do their distributions - plus many are found on coastal estuaries and beaches, ie away from farms.
In the west of the area are openbill storks, which nest at a few colonies in Thailand, during winter. Some died this winter, and even before testing
positive for H5N1 (which was reportedly identified in three carcasses) this incident was taken as evidence for migratory birds spreading bird flu:
notably by New York Times journo Keith Bradsher. Trouble is, they migrate from Bangladesh/ne India; and they feed in fields within one of Thailand's
worst-hit regions - making it surely the case that local poultry farms were the source of the virus; they were victims.
The migratory-birds-are-to-blame case crumbles even further when you consider that thousands of migrants have been tested for H5N1, yet not one
healthy bird has yet tested positive. All wild birds that have tested positive have been dead (or dying). And dead ducks don't fly.
IMO, the jury is still out.
Dead ducks may not fly, but there is one area in my opinion that has received VERY LITTLE attention...
The Illegal Trade of Birds.
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It is estimated that Americans alone house some
19 million pet birds.
In the world, pet birds are the
third most popular pet.
...Although most birds available in the United States were bred in captivity, large numbers of wild-caught birds are smuggled into this country every
year. Outside the U.S., the situation is still worse, with millions of birds sold in international trade each year...
...millions of wild birds each year find themselves stuffed in boxes or bags headed for the black market. Many of these birds find their way into the
United States—packed into wheel wells of cars..., stuffed into suitcases on flights..., and packed in boxes and shipped...
It is estimated that the illegal trade of wildlife ranks only second to illegal drug traffic. Moreover, there appear to be significant issues
associated with “bird laundering”, where illegal birds are shipped to locations with lesser export restrictions and enforcement mechanisms, and
then subsequently reshipped “legally” to other nations.
In Indonesia, where the most recent occurrences of H5N1 have appeared, even military officials have been in on the act of the illegal bird trade...
Indonesian Military linked to illegal bird trade
Clearly, the problem of illegal bird trade is world-wide...
Illegal hawkers are flouting bird import ban, say shopkeepers
Illegal Bird Trade in India
Illegal Russian birds, health risk
Parrot Trade
SEIZURES AND PROSECUTIONS
Illegal Bird Trade
Six in Fla. charged with illegal bird trafficking
FEDERAL AGENTS TARGET ILLEGAL BIRD TRADE
Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Influenza Virus in Smuggled Thai Eagles, Belgium
More SEIZURES AND PROSECUTIONS
Still More SEIZURES AND PROSECUTIONS
Some media focus in recent weeks is starting to emerge, but not nearly enough.
Illegal bird trade may be contributing to spread of bird flu
The rapid spread of the deadly Asian bird flu virus is sparking concerns about the effectiveness of the international containment protocol.
The highly contagious strain of avian flu has now turned up in poultry stocks in Siberia and Khazakstan, and some health authorities say it's only a
matter of time before the disease hits European Union countries.
Russian doctors have been quick to blame migratory birds flying in from infected regions of China. But bird experts say an illegal trade in poultry
cannot be ruled out as the source of the latest outbreak, as Karen Barlow reports.
And...
Dirty trade risks more than its
victims
THE growing trade in smuggled wildlife has increased the risk of an outbreak of the potentially lethal avian influenza virus in Australia, federal
authorities say.
With Health Minister Tony Abbott this week warning of a possible avian flu pandemic in Australia, leading environmental and quarantine agencies say
the lucrative trade in illegally obtained wildlife presents a significant disease risk.
The Australian Quarantine and Inspection Service and the Department of Environment and Heritage believe there has been an increasing push recently to
smuggle wildlife — often exotic birds that might harbor avian flu — into Australia.
The Australian Customs Service investigated 33 smuggling cases in the first eight months of this year compared with 26 for all of 2004. But the real
figure is likely to be far greater, with international estimates that only about 10 per cent of smuggled animals and animal products are discovered by
authorities.
Australian authorities also believe smuggling methods have become more sophisticated, reflecting the possible involvement of organized international
criminal gangs.
In the same article above, it mentions “The US Department of Health recently warned illegal movements of birds are a major threat for the
introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza".
IMO, the threat illegal bird imports is far greater than potential transmission by human or migratory bird carriers. I might add that smuggling
infected birds into this country may NOT necessarily be motivated by profit alone. There are more sinister uses one can imagine- especially given the
part of the world where these infections are occurring. Think “terrorism” anyone?
Given the recent experience we have had with HHS, FEMA and the EPA in the wake of Katrina, it is worth investigating the degree to which the US
government has applied appropriate resources to this very real threat. In my next installment, I will explore this more fully.
However, what I have found thus far is not encouraging...
I STRONGLY RECOMMEND you read the following:
US LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENTS SPEAK OUT!
Other items that do not bode well...
U.S. FISH & WILDLIFE MAY OUTSOURCE BIOLOGICAL STAFF: Director Appeals to Interior to Stop the
Contractor Bidding for Hundreds of Jobs
Secretary Norton Stresses Priorities, Goals and Impact of FY 2005 Budget
In the meantime, I’d stay away from pet shops.
[edit on 22-9-2005 by loam]
