posted on Sep, 20 2005 @ 07:12 PM
Here's the latest probability data from the NOAA (as of 23:00 EDT, though the image will automatically update):
The left-most column represents hours from the time of measurement, i.e., 24 would be 11:00 PM (EDT) Wednesday night.
As per this table, Rita has a 50% probability of becoming a Cat 4-5 hurricane by Wednesday evening.
However, while the highest probability for any single outcome
is that of Rita becoming a Cat 4-5 hurricane within 24 hours, there is also a 50%
chance that Rita will not
. And while there is a 30% that Rita will (become and) remain a Cat 4-5 over the next 72 hours -- again, the largest
single probabilty -- there is a 70% probability that Rita will be a Cat 3 or less.
It is important to note that the NOAA and NHC will update this chart every few hours. We could very well awake tomorrow to find more
entries in the table, or at the very least, significantly higher probabilities associated with the Cat 4-5 scenario. And my gut feeling is that's
what is going to happen.
Here's the link
to the NOAA/NHC graphics page for updated
Here's the latest NOAA sea surface temperature readings (only good through yesterday):
Figure a mean temperature of 30 degrees Celsius (86 F)... at least until the NOAA updates it's data (can be found
[edit on 21-9-2005 by sdrumrunner]