Physics Contest: Modifying Weather the Old Fashion Way

Jack was building a picket fence... the pickets were 3 inches wide and spaced...

How fast would an object traveling due North, through the East side of the eye wall of a tropical cyclone have to be moving in order to cause a shift in the hurricane's path 0.1 (point one) degree West of due North; all other influences aside?

Cyclone's initial status:

Windspeed 120 knots, rotating counter clockwise
Pressure 930 mb
Mean eye diameter 30 nautical miles,
Heading due North before object impact
Ocean temperature 30 celsius


Object stats:

Weight 20000 kilograms,
Density/shape = granite/spheroid
Atitute upon impact with eye 11,000 meters

Bonus 1) What if there were two equal objects traveling the same trajectory, except one at altitude 10,000 m and the other at 11,000 m?

Bonus 2) At what rate would the first object, traveling through the same cyclone, have to be accelerating to cause the same effect, if it were breaking the sound barrier at the moment of impact?

Bonus 3) Account for any other effects upon the storm: windspeed, pressure, etc.

Hint: How much energy is in the storm?


Use all information deemed vital, infer when necessary, and explain your answer.




Did you hear that?

ksssssssssssshaaaaa...Boom...pwiiiiissshhhhhhhii.

The butterfly makes another subtle influence.



A little cybersocrates for you,

Sri Oracle

The vast complexity of a massive fluid hurricane is well beyond calculable physics.

I'm not sure what you are asking anyway...

Originally posted by Quest
The vast complexity of a massive fluid hurricane is well beyond calculable physics.

I'm not sure what you are asking anyway...

That sounds like you're throwing in the towel before you even open a text book or do a google search.

It doesn't matter if you use physics, calculus, chaos theory, fluid dynamics, fractaline mathematics, modeling, or unified field theory for that matter. Just do better than guess and better than, "thats too difficult". There are some very intelligent people at this forum. I trust there will be a few well thought out answers.

To clear up the question: What I am asking in short... if you throw a rock at swirling organized waterspout... how fast would the stone have to be moving to bump the storm enough to redirect its heading?

Obviously a big enough stone at a fast enough speed could destroy a hurricane (think meteor) and a small stone with a sling shot is going to have no net effect. There is middle ground, that ground is what this question attempts to study.

How much energy is in the storm? How much is in the stone? How much is transferred? Vectors? Splash?

Just a carpenter with complicated questions,

Sri Oracle

Some equations to work with:

csep1.phy.ornl.gov...
www.grc.nasa.gov...
wind.mit.edu...

www.hurricanealley.net...

The dynamical models, unlike the statistical models, disregard history altogether. They use as much information as possible concerning the storm itself and the conditions surrounding the storm. These models will use as much "real-time" information as they can digest. The dynamical models employ the basic laws of physics as they apply to the atmosphere to predict the future course of the storm. These models start with the six (6) basic equations concerning these physical laws as they apply to the atmosphere. There are three (3) hydrodynamic equations which use Newton's second law of motion to find the horizontal and vertical motions of air caused by air pressure differences, gravity, friction, and the earth's rotation. There are two (2) thermodynamic equations which calculate changes in temperature caused by by the evaporation of water into water vapor, the vapor condensing into liquid, and so on. The final equation is known as the continuity equation. This equation attempts to account for volume of air going into or coming out of a specified area. One form of a the dynamical models is the barotropic model. This model moves weather systems in from one location to another using horizontal winds only. In an undisturbed, no major systems, type of atmosphere that is usually found in the tropics devoid of a storm, this process works extremely well. But, as the storm develops cold or warm air moving across lines of equal air pressure, or isobars, is the dominant feature for any developing storm. Therefore, the barotropic becomes the least valuable. When the lines of equal temperature and equal pressure cross each other, this then becomes a baroclinic type atmosphere.

www.applet-magic.com...

The Equation for the Rate of Change of Longitude

Let u be the eastward velocity of the center of the hurricane relative to the Earth's surface and v its corresponding northward velocity. Let φ be the latitude angle and θ the longitude angle. If r is the radius of the Earth then the distance from the center of the hurricane to the Earth's axis rcos(φ). Let Ω the angular velocity of the Earth's rotation. Then the absolute velocity of the center of the hurricane is

Ωrcos(φ) + u

The angular momentum per unit mass of the hurricane is then

rcos(φ)[Ω(rcos(φ) + u]

Conservation of angular momentum requires this to be constant so

rcos(φ)[Ω(rcos(φ) + u] = Λ

The relative velocity is given by u=rcos(φ)(dθ/dt). Entering this expression into the above equation gives:

(rcos(φ))²(Ω + dθ/dt) = Λ

This equation can be solved for the rate of change of longitude, dθ/dt.

Suggested google searches:

"point of recurvature" hurricane
newton law hurricane
bernoulli hurricane
angular momentum hurricane
conservation of energy hurricane
equations hurricane
conservation of angular momentum

Have fun,

Sri Oracle

I'm a physicist. I'm telling you... you can not model a hurricane like that. Even the best models of weather patterns i've ever seen are too complex to calculate.

You're talking like a hurricane is some kind of simple thing. Its a massive fluid vortex that is constantly effected by the ground, sea, temperatures, surrounding pressure fronts, upper atmospheric conditions, etc etc. Unless you want to boil it down to a simple phsyics problem, i don't get the point.

You might as well drop the hurricane and stone thing and just do a classic... 2 spherical cows of uniform density!

Hint: How much energy is in the storm?

How does this have anything to do with the path of a storm? The total energy of the storm play almost no role in its path compared to the surrounding pressure systems. Most hurricanes tend to cruise along pressure fronts from what I've learned, and the actual kentic energy of the air currents play little role.

I'm not a meterologist nor was i ever that good with advanced fluid dynamics... can someone else with experience in this topic help out?

Originally posted by Quest
I'm a physicist. I'm telling you... you can not model a hurricane like that. Even the best models of weather patterns i've ever seen are too complex to calculate.

One can always create a simple model... from that simple model a more complex one can always be found. What if the storm were a spinning billiard ball moving accross a pool table and one were to strike it again in the direction of its movement but with "english" as to amplify its spin. Could one calculate this given the mass of the ball, its speed, spin, table friction, and the strike force and location?

Unless you want to boil it down to a simple phsyics problem, i don't get the point.

What if I said that I had the ability to lunge 20,000 pound rocks at a hurricane at over the speed of sound? Would there be a point then?

The total energy of the storm play almost no role in its path compared to the surrounding pressure systems. Most hurricanes tend to cruise along pressure fronts from what I've learned, and the actual kentic energy of the air currents play little role.

in the eastward wall of a north traveling hurricane there are particles moving due north at 120 knots on average... There must be some way to calculate the mass/momentum of those particles. Then, we add one particle at weight 20,000 kilo to that eastward wall moving at say 10,000 kilometers/hour due north. It excellerates those particles around it changing things, it should cause a change in the path of the hurricane. One should be able to calculate how much more momentum that east wall then has relative to the rest of the wall. No? From there rechart the course using vectors and "The Equation for the Rate of Change of Longitude" No? That would be one way to model the circumstance... using fractaline mathematics may be another.

Sri Oracle

Quest - I think he is leading up to some sort of "proof" that hurricanes are "steered" by HAARP.

Originally posted by HowardRoark
Quest - I think he is leading up to some sort of "proof" that hurricanes are "steered" by HAARP.

Busted... but not by HAARP

Busted... but not by HAARP

Well instead of the dog and pony show, how about getting to the point? hmm?

Originally posted by Sri Oracle

Originally posted by HowardRoark
Quest - I think he is leading up to some sort of "proof" that hurricanes are "steered" by HAARP.

Busted... but not by HAARP

OK, then let's see what the flavor of the day is.

Chemtrails?

Tom Bearden?

Tesla's ghost?

Spontaineous Human Combusion?

UFOs?

The Burmuda Triangle?

Dyna-Gell?

Russian "Trawlers?"

Am I getting close yet?

No... not "Spontaineous Human Combusion" either.

But you are getting away from the point... More than anything I want to know how much kinetic energy is required to move a cat 3 storm

Rather than try to guess what it is I'm getting at... Lets talk concrete math and physics...

I've provided many links, I am willing to help work the problem out... I do need some creative suggestions to get started though.

One can make all kinds of speculations as to how to steer a storm... but calculating how much kinetic energy would be required to do so makes any of those speculations worth investigating. I'm looking for a baseline... what does it take to move one. Anything can be done. What is the threshold? I do not know... collectively however I do think we could narrow it down.

QuietSoul, as far as getting to the point... there really is no point... yet. When we arrive at some figures... then we could start deriving points.

So, without further adieu, would someone care to help me make sense of all of these equations?

Socrates must have had a rough time of it,

Sri Oracle

Originally posted by Sri Oracle

So, without further adieu, would someone care to help me make sense of all of these equations?

Socrates must have had a rough time of it,

Sri Oracle

Hows the weather control poof going? Let me know when you're done out doing physicist, metorologist, and super computers. I'll nominate you for the nobel prize.

If you seriously want to help with physics problems I'll help out in my spare time, but you have to ask something reasonable, and ask it clearly.