Hurricane Rita ( Bad News For Gulf )

Originally posted by maldives01
Exactly! Got a bad feeling - nothing specific, just a feeling. Really hope it's wrong. How are the Keys - anyone heard?

Just heard Fox say 58 mph gusts and 42 mph sustained winds. But so far not to bad.

They also said High Tide is at the same time Rita passes just south of the Keys. I am sure this will cause flooding.

[edit on 20-9-2005 by Harry55]

Rita is a Cat 2 just a little south of where Katrina became a Cat 2.

Anyone have a good site for Hurricane Rita projection ?

Do you remember this?
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Katrina, the second hurricane to hit Florida this year, grew from a disorganized 50-mph tropical storm to one with 92-mph wind gusts in a few hours Thursday.

As it moved out into the Gulf on Friday, Katrina became a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds and lashed the Florida Keys with strong outer bands that could dump up from 15 to 20 inches over the island chain.
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Source:
Foxnews

The way it is now, I expect it to be a cat. 3 soon...

(Happy to see you are Ok. and connected, WW. Please, keep on updating us, if possible. Thank you).

Originally posted by John bull 1
Rita is a Cat 2 just a little south of where Katrina became a Cat 2.

Anyone have a good site for Hurricane Rita projection ?

My money is on Galveston.

And just to compare. This is the information published about Rita:
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Rita went from a tropical storm with top sustained wind of 70 mph early Tuesday to a hurricane with 100 mph wind by early afternoon as it passed just south of the Keys, the National Hurricane Center said. It became a Category 1 hurricane with sustained top wind of 75 mph during the morning but developed into a Category 2 around 1:30 p.m. EDT.
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Source:
www.foxnews.com...

Originally posted by SpittinCobra
She only needs to pick up 7 mph wind speed at this point to be a 3, winds are 103 needs to be 110 to be a 3. With no real land mass to disrupt it, she going to be a big.

Edit it needs a 10mph to become a cat 3.

Originally posted by SpittinCobra
I think the gulf waters are so warm, it will become a 5, and will hit at a hard 4 or 5.

Well, I live in the Houston area and I agree with you 100%. Forecaster are predicting it will not increase above a Cat3. However, if you look at Katrina, it got up to a Cat5 before landfall. Why? Just as you said. The waters of the Gulf are very warm. Plus, look how quickly it stregthened to a Cat2 in the last hour. I belive it will get up to a Cat4 or 5 hurricane.

Originally posted by John bull 1
Anyone have a good site for Hurricane Rita projection ?

It's probably best to just get it from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center:

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Thanks Harry - just watching nbc6 - just showed Cuba, some evacuating now, but all seems calm and ordered. Think this will build as it enters the Gulf proper.

Originally posted by SpittinCobra

Originally posted by John bull 1
Rita is a Cat 2 just a little south of where Katrina became a Cat 2.

Anyone have a good site for Hurricane Rita projection ?

My money is on Galveston.

Well I live in Houston and my family and will be evacuating on Thursday if it remains on course and hits Galveston. This could be as bad a Katrina.

Pressure keeps dropping slowly, down to 976 now.

I agree with you, better preventing than...

A cat. 3 is also important, so why waiting until it becomes a 4 or 5? I am sure this can be another major hurricane. Anyone knows the water temperature when Katrina passed through the Gulf and the water temperature now?
Katrina and Rita are very similar.

Don´t you think so?

www.ssd.noaa.gov...

Don't like the look of that to the east of Rita either............

The water is very warm, mostly between 85F and 90F:

NOAA Buoy Data

It's quite possible that Rita will rapidly intensify to a Cat 4 maybe even a 5, but remember there quite a bit of water to cross and several eyewall developments will happen, so it probably won't be able to maintain the higher status for too long...I still think CAT 3, but a strong one, with a landfall slightly south of Galveston.

I'm mostly in the clear, just that fast moving squalls might still happen, like that severe cell on the radar might touch us....Homestead and points south should get the rougher stuff more constant stuff.

www.nbc6.net...

My location would be around the top of the "FT" in Ft. Lauderdale

[edit on 9-20-2005 by worldwatcher]

Looks like Islamadora is getting the worst of the rain at the moment. Stay safe everyone!

Originally posted by Ptolomeo
Anyone knows the water temperature when Katrina passed through the Gulf and the water temperature now?

The waters were about the same when Katrina hit. Right now there about 88 degrees.

Yes, water is too warm... I just hope you are right WW and the maximum at landfall stays at 3.

Let´s hope it.

Originally posted by SpittinCobra

Originally posted by worldwatcher
now that sounds about right, the pressure wasn't matching up to the category.. I think Rita will be a Cat 3 at landfall.

I think the gulf waters are so warm, it will become a 5, and will hit at a hard 4 or 5.

I am inclined to agree. The storm is now crossing some of the warmest water on the planet. Of course, as we have seen with Kat, it all depends on the eye wall replacement cycle.

Of all the current tracks those more to the North are looking more and more convincing. Looking at the DMSP SSM/I Microwave Imagery data, I think we are going to see an eye wall replacement that jumps NE. Just speculation here, but there seems to be a bit more stable air and high water temps in that area.



DVORAK images shows a rather large bump, explaining the newest advisory placing the storm in Cat. 2 range.
www.ssd.noaa.gov..." target='_blank' class='tabOff'/>
To be honest I do not see much that will slow this storm down. This oceanic and atmospheric conditions are similar to Kat, in that the stage is poised for another possible monster storm.

Looking at the water vapor over the US, the anticyclone mentioned by earlier NOAA discussions is evident. While the movement of the air mass will play a part in the storms ultimate track, the warm moist air will do nothing to slow down this system. If the air mass was cyclonic then it could have pumped in cooler drier air. While that could have helped it would have also moved the track on a similar path as that of Kat. As it stands now, it looks like the bulk of the air mass over Texas is gone.
www.goes.noaa.gov..." target='_blank' class='tabOff'/>

Java Applet of image above

If you view the Java applet above you can see the western side of the anticyclones airmass, over New Mexico and Arizona, is now moving north. Where ever this flow is when Rita meets it, will decide her path. I think the southern tracks are crap . My estimate is a Cat. 3-4 making landfall between Houston Corpus Christi.

The 2pm EST Update is out.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1800Z 23.9N 81.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 24.0N 83.1W 95 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 24.3N 85.8W 105 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 24.5N 88.3W 105 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 90.5W 105 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 26.0N 94.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 29.5N 96.4W 65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/1200Z 33.5N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND

Above looks very optimistic, hope they are right.

It is just incredible, except in some small details, I would say that Katrina and Rita seem to be twins...

Besides, all the circumstances are so similar. The water temperature, from TS to hurricane quickly, the unknown landfall and cat. , etc.