Hurricane Rita ( Bad News For Gulf )

Call me a cynic, but it looks like now that Rita seems to be losing intensity people are losing interest around here. Yesterday there were constant updates now it's been almost a half hour since an update. Interesting.

I am perfectly willing to look stupid in asking this question but I am curious as to what (if any) effects a hurricane and the associate storms has on tectonic plates? Is there any chance that torrential downpours resulting from Rita would have any effect on fault lines? In particular I am thinking the New Madrid, even though it is a bit north.

Originally posted by Gazrok
Looking at the latest sat loop, it almost looks to me like it's going to have a Louisianna landfall.. That isn't what the NHC and others say, but sure looks pretty north/northwesterly...or at least closer to the LA and TX border...

I have been seeing an increased sentiment towards a Louisiana landfall in some met talk too this morn, specifically the Lafayette and Lake Charles regions. Guess we shall see if the Northern trend becomes plotted in on the next set of models. This might be for the better too, since going into Galveston probably the worst possible outcome.

As for fuel prices, I will let you decide:
•Refineries and Rita's projected path map
•Gulf of Mexico Oil Production Impact for Rita
•The worst spots in TX for Rita to hit?

Hurricane expert says Rita will be second worst storm behind Katrina
Dr. Gray is at Colorado State University. He is considered a world-wide authority on hurricanes and he says Hurricane Rita will be the second worst storm he's seen in his lifetime, with Hurricane Katrina being the first.



As for flooding it can trigger earthquake events.

Swiss floods trigger more earth tremors
The unusually frequent seismic activity reached its strongest level early Tuesday, at the peak of the Swiss flooding which has left four people dead and two others missing, the service said in a statement.

NZ hit by floods and earthquakes
Two people have been killed and around 1,500 evacuated from their homes in New Zealand after floods and dozens of small earthquakes hit the country.

[edit on 22-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

As powerful as this storm might be, the forces involved in plate techtonics are far far greater. I really doubt that a hurricane or flooding could trigger a seismic event.

Your first point is interesting. I think some people unfortunately take a morbid delight in catastrophe.

From what I see on the IR loops on TV it looks like the eyewall is building back, the replacement cycle may be coming to an end -- it could start strengthening again.

Marid Audran - I have been looking around and found something related to your question:

HURRICANES can trigger swarms of weak earthquakes and even set the Earth vibrating, according to the first study of such effects.
Take a look at it.
Newscientist


Very interesting.



[edit on 22-9-2005 by Ptolomeo]

I'm still very interested and will continue tracking Rita until landfall.

I hear ya on topping off the tank. I have a thirsty old V8, so I would feel the pain of gas price increases.

From what I see on the IR loops on TV it looks like the eyewall is building back, the replacement cycle may be coming to an end -- it could start strengthening again.

Yep, the sat loop showed increasing stadium effect too....and it looks like the southeast sheer is now gone....

Originally posted by Ptolomeo
HURRICANES can trigger swarms of weak earthquakes and even set the Earth vibrating, according to the first study of such effects.
Take a look at it.
Newscientist
Very interesting.
[edit on 22-9-2005 by Ptolomeo]

Very interesting indeed! Thanks for that. I was especially interested in this bit :

More surprisingly, the storm also caused the Earth to vibrate. The planet's surface in the vicinity of the hurricane started moving up and down at several frequencies ranging from 0.9 to 3 millihertz. Such low-frequency vibrations have been detected following large earthquakes,

It seems that the more science comes to understand the world around us the more the "old ways" seem to get validated. Very cool, thanks again!

I am not liking the models for what this beast might do once in makes landfall--- hrs 72-120. Might linger forever, making the rainfall situation substantially worse.....

external image

After the " Eyewall Replacement Cycle" is complete, the hurricane windfield will expand.
(45+ miles wide is a pretty big replacement eye verses a previous 20 mile wide eye)

The current 915mb level says that the pressure is not rising as fast as expected and may be stabilizing. That may preclude another pressure drop and higher winds as Rita approaches the coast. ...the bad news.

Meanwhile Rita downgraded to Category 4...the good news
www.nhc.noaa.gov...



[edit on 22-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

Rita has been downgraded to strong Cat 4

000
WTNT33 KNHC 221735
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...RITA WEAKENS A LITTLE FURTHER...REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT
O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...FROM SOUTH OF
PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES...700
KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 430 MILES...695 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS 915 MB...27.01 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA.
TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 15
INCH TOTAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.

Hi all,

This is the latest posting from NHC:

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...25.5 N... 89.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB

Many of the other weather forcasters are predicting that Rita makes landfall as a cat 4 tomorrow. I do hope the folks stuck in traffic get somewhere safe soon!

The pressure reading is still consistent with a cat 5 although the winds are cat 4. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

That's true..it's still under 920mb... Good point... I think the next reading will be putting it back at 5 status.... Regardless of the numbers, people should treat this one like the biggest baddest hurricane they are likely to face, and should do what they need to do accordingly.....

Just don`t get fooled by the the Cat. ...

Even if she should happen to make landfall as a Cat. 3, the storm surge would still be much higher than that...

As the eyewall replacement completes the eye will close in and increase winds. I am still expecting more of a turn towards Louisiana.

Hi All,

I dont know how to post the actual picture, but here is a link to the current sea temps in the gulf. (here you go-Gazrok)



I am by no means an expert or authority on any weather phenomena, but it seems to me that Rita may gain a bit of strenght before she makes landfall. I just hope that the officials continue to take her seriously, and dont assume the danger is less because she is weakening.

[edit for spelling... sheesh my fingers are all thumbs today! ]


[edit on 22-9-2005 by Gazrok]

Its me again!

I just found these two blogs on weather underground by Dr. Jeff Masters and Steve Gregory. They are intersting to read, and Steve's posts include some increadible pictures of Rita. It is also interesting to note that they both have different a few viewpoints on Ritas future.

Dr. Jeff Matsters Blog:
www.wunderground.com...

Steve Gregory's Blog:
www.wunderground.com...

Thanks for the Link Sylvrshadow,
I found something interesting to share

Current buoy measurements
NOAA buoy 42001 measured sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 78 mph, and 34 foot waves at 10am CDT. At the time, the buoy was located 75 miles WNW of Rita. This evening at 5pm CDT, Rita should make a very close pass by this buoy. I expect waves of 50 - 70 feet will impact the buoy, and huge swells from Rita are already starting to pound the Gulf Coast. A time series plot of the wind and pressure from buoy 42001 is worth checking out.

Direct Link To Bouy 42001

I would not want to be on that bouy now or at 5 pm when Rita moves through.

[edit on 22-9-2005 by Harry55]