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Hurricane Rita ( Bad News For Gulf )

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posted on Sep, 22 2005 @ 08:26 AM
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Originally posted by Harry55
To try to answer this:

The cat 5 hurricanes can not maintain this strong strength for long periods of time. They experiance eyewall reconstruction. Which normally does not take long but causes some weakness.

Also there is cooler water between Galveston and Rita that she must go over. then the water gets warm again before Rita makes landfall. This makes it very difficult for forcasters to predict strength at impact.

I am not a forcaster but hope this helps.

[edit on 22-9-2005 by Harry55]


thnx.... something that i can chew on a little as it relates to my post. thank you.




posted on Sep, 22 2005 @ 08:30 AM
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8am projected path...

If you're on the coast, and in this cone, you need to get inland NOW....

[edit on 22-9-2005 by Gazrok]



posted on Sep, 22 2005 @ 08:31 AM
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The water certainly might be warm near the coast, but the key is that it's very shallow. To maintain cat 5 strength, a storm really needs warm (upper 80s) and deep water, say thousands of feet. The shallow region of the continental shelf robs the storm of heat potential.

Also, looking at the last few images, it looks to my eyes like the storm is experiencing some shear from the southwest. Most of the convection has shifted to the north and east, and the eye is no longer dead center in the CDO. The outflow seems inhibited in that quadrant as well. I think we've seen the peak of the storm, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a gradual weakening all the way to landfall, but still a major storm when it gets there.

As per the threat to NO: Wouldn't that be the best case scenario, for the storm to hit the city again? I mean think about it, the place has already been flooded and totally wrecked, how much more wrecked can it get? Every house that's seen water is totalled anyway, how can it get more totalled? Galveston and Houston are pristine, damage there would be catastrophic, but NO is a catastrophe already, you can't have catastrophe times two. Yes it would be very bad for the Corps of Engineers, seeing all their work go to crap, but the city is essentially empty except for a few diehards.



posted on Sep, 22 2005 @ 08:37 AM
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Originally posted by zamphir66
The water certainly might be warm near the coast, but the key is that it's very shallow. To maintain cat 5 strength, a storm really needs warm (upper 80s) and deep water, say thousands of feet. The shallow region of the continental shelf robs the storm of heat potential.

Also, looking at the last few images, it looks to my eyes like the storm is experiencing some shear from the southwest. Most of the convection has shifted to the north and east, and the eye is no longer dead center in the CDO. The outflow seems inhibited in that quadrant as well. I think we've seen the peak of the storm, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a gradual weakening all the way to landfall, but still a major storm when it gets there.

As per the threat to NO: Wouldn't that be the best case scenario, for the storm to hit the city again? I mean think about it, the place has already been flooded and totally wrecked, how much more wrecked can it get? Every house that's seen water is totalled anyway, how can it get more totalled? Galveston and Houston are pristine, damage there would be catastrophic, but NO is a catastrophe already, you can't have catastrophe times two. Yes it would be very bad for the Corps of Engineers, seeing all their work go to crap, but the city is essentially empty except for a few diehards.


I couldn't agree with you more. Everyone is so worried about this storm hitting NO...but, it seems like common sense to me that this would be the BEST case scenario. So, what if it floods again? What's the difference? As long as everyone uses common sense and get the heck out of there it would be the best for everyone if this storms hits NO dead on.



posted on Sep, 22 2005 @ 08:40 AM
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As of 8am EST:




If the eye continues without making a right hand turn at all, the winds that hit Galveston and Houston could be between 39-73mph. That isn't near as bad as what hit NO.



posted on Sep, 22 2005 @ 09:56 AM
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Originally posted by Mirlin11
As of 8am EST:




If the eye continues without making a right hand turn at all, the winds that hit Galveston and Houston could be between 39-73mph. That isn't near as bad as what hit NO.



I may be a dummy; but it looks to me like if the eye continues without making a right hand turn like you said that they will still get the high winds. Am I looking at something wrong?



posted on Sep, 22 2005 @ 09:57 AM
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In this high-resolution Picture you can see the ocean floor through the eye... pretty amazing.
www.osei.noaa.gov...

It is OSEI Image of the Day www.osei.noaa.gov...

[edit on 22-9-2005 by XPhiles]



posted on Sep, 22 2005 @ 10:01 AM
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I am in central Texas (Waco) and the news people and such are acting like we are going to get hit like New Orleans this far inland. I say at most we will get some rain and stiff wind gusts. They want us to stock up on water and food etc. I personally think that is overkill for Waco. But never the less good luck to the Gulf Coast people you can still get out now. I did stock up on one thing.... BEER lol



posted on Sep, 22 2005 @ 10:02 AM
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11AM advisory has Hurricane Rita at 165mph now, some slight weakening is expected to continue. Movement is WNW at 9mph.

New forecasts are showing that once Rita makes landfall, she will stall and dump torrential rains before slowly moving on.



posted on Sep, 22 2005 @ 10:28 AM
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Even though it is weakening, it still gonna be a heck of a storm. i wonder if the traffic is getting any better since they let both sides of 45 go north. My sister left houston at 4 this morning and said it took about 2 hours to go 30 miles. Hope she has enough gas to make ot to Dallas



posted on Sep, 22 2005 @ 10:31 AM
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that's good news, 10mph less than last night... Pressure is up too I bet...

By the way, glad to see you pulled through it ok in Miami/Dade....


Here in Tampa, we're just getting a little much-needed rain... The storm has actually given us great weather for the past few days, if not a little windy...



posted on Sep, 22 2005 @ 10:31 AM
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Is there a possibility of it restrengthening?



posted on Sep, 22 2005 @ 10:54 AM
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They just said on the news that the pressure of this storm is so low there have only been 2 other storms in history to compete.



posted on Sep, 22 2005 @ 10:59 AM
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Originally posted by Dyzan
Even though it is weakening, it still gonna be a heck of a storm. i wonder if the traffic is getting any better since they let both sides of 45 go north.


It's basically a traffic jam from Houston to Dallas. Still, if you need to get out, don't let this stop you.

UPDATE:
Radio just reported that it actually gets better after Corsicana, and you can drive at almost posted speed limits all the way to Dallas.


[edit on 22-9-2005 by dbates]



posted on Sep, 22 2005 @ 10:59 AM
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A. 22/1449Z
B. 25 DEG 18 MIN N
88 DEG 38 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2326 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 121 DEG 135 KT
G. 35 DEG 13 NM
H. 913 MB
I. 18 C/ 3058 M
J. 22 C/ 3050 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C017-55
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A RITA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 135 KT NE QUAD 1446Z

Pressure sky rocketed up compared to last night..

There's also a break in the eyewall in the SE section of the hurricane, which is also great news..



posted on Sep, 22 2005 @ 11:02 AM
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This might have been talked about arleady, but this sucker is now 19 pages, so.....does anyone think gass prices are going to go back up? Katrina did a lot of damage to the right half of the oil rigs in the gulf. This storm looks like it is just going to plow through like a bowling ball, and take those out while beating up the rest. I know they dont want everyone running to the gas stations, but I drive a suberban and gass is only 2.39 now.



posted on Sep, 22 2005 @ 11:07 AM
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I actually started a thread on that yesterday:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Yesterday the economists were predicting $3 - $4 a gallon as an average. Today they updated this to $5 a gallon.
Note they believe that the price may make it back to $2.50 mark sometime around Nov-Dec timeframe.



posted on Sep, 22 2005 @ 11:23 AM
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Originally posted by kenshiro2012
I actually started a thread on that yesterday:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Yesterday the economists were predicting $3 - $4 a gallon as an average. Today they updated this to $5 a gallon.
Note they believe that the price may make it back to $2.50 mark sometime around Nov-Dec timeframe.



Thanks for the link. That is what I was looking for.
Good heavens $4-5 a gal. that is unreal!



posted on Sep, 22 2005 @ 11:26 AM
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As of 12:05pm:




Let's just hope she fizzles out before reaching Galveston. We don't need the oil refineries in the area damaged and another increase in gas prices. There was alot of price gouging here in Atlanta following Katrina.

[edit on 22-9-2005 by Mirlin11]



posted on Sep, 22 2005 @ 11:27 AM
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so.....does anyone think gass prices are going to go back up?


Take a look at all of the offshore oil rigs...and where they are. Now look at the cone. Now is definitely the time to top off the tank folks... We could easily see a 50 cent per gallon hike in the next couple of days...

Looking at the latest sat loop, it almost looks to me like it's going to have a Louisianna landfall.. That isn't what the NHC and others say, but sure looks pretty north/northwesterly...or at least closer to the LA and TX border...

www.ssd.noaa.gov...

[edit on 22-9-2005 by Gazrok]




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