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Originally posted by Harry55
To try to answer this:
The cat 5 hurricanes can not maintain this strong strength for long periods of time. They experiance eyewall reconstruction. Which normally does not take long but causes some weakness.
Also there is cooler water between Galveston and Rita that she must go over. then the water gets warm again before Rita makes landfall. This makes it very difficult for forcasters to predict strength at impact.
I am not a forcaster but hope this helps.
[edit on 22-9-2005 by Harry55]
Originally posted by zamphir66
The water certainly might be warm near the coast, but the key is that it's very shallow. To maintain cat 5 strength, a storm really needs warm (upper 80s) and deep water, say thousands of feet. The shallow region of the continental shelf robs the storm of heat potential.
Also, looking at the last few images, it looks to my eyes like the storm is experiencing some shear from the southwest. Most of the convection has shifted to the north and east, and the eye is no longer dead center in the CDO. The outflow seems inhibited in that quadrant as well. I think we've seen the peak of the storm, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a gradual weakening all the way to landfall, but still a major storm when it gets there.
As per the threat to NO: Wouldn't that be the best case scenario, for the storm to hit the city again? I mean think about it, the place has already been flooded and totally wrecked, how much more wrecked can it get? Every house that's seen water is totalled anyway, how can it get more totalled? Galveston and Houston are pristine, damage there would be catastrophic, but NO is a catastrophe already, you can't have catastrophe times two. Yes it would be very bad for the Corps of Engineers, seeing all their work go to crap, but the city is essentially empty except for a few diehards.
Originally posted by Mirlin11
As of 8am EST:
If the eye continues without making a right hand turn at all, the winds that hit Galveston and Houston could be between 39-73mph. That isn't near as bad as what hit NO.
Originally posted by Dyzan
Even though it is weakening, it still gonna be a heck of a storm. i wonder if the traffic is getting any better since they let both sides of 45 go north.
Originally posted by kenshiro2012
I actually started a thread on that yesterday:
Yesterday the economists were predicting $3 - $4 a gallon as an average. Today they updated this to $5 a gallon.
Note they believe that the price may make it back to $2.50 mark sometime around Nov-Dec timeframe.
so.....does anyone think gass prices are going to go back up?