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Hurricane Rita ( Bad News For Gulf )

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posted on Sep, 21 2005 @ 01:16 PM
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Originally posted by SpittinCobra
Here is how I think its going to play out, she will be a 3, if she stays on the most southern path the stronger she will be. Each path north of the the most southern projected, weaker and weaker north.

A lot of the colder water from deeper in the gulf was churned by katrina close to NO and east of that. If Rita stays low she might be as big as katrina.

If there are more storms this season, no bigger than a 3. As if a 3 is little.


No offence, that is factually incorrect, for two reasons. One the upwelling you are referring to is gone. There has been plenty of time now, since Kat, for the open water temps to return to normal. Also there has been quite a few days over the Gulf with high temps and little cloud cover. A quick glance a buoy data shows that temps in the Gulf are high across the board.

NDBC Station 42001 is reporting a sea temp of +84 F
Station 42001 - MID GULF

Because of the relatively large shallow costal shelf in the central Texas Gulf shore, the temps are higher than in the deeper Gulf.

NDBC: Local Data

If you remember, during the days before Kat’s land fall, we saw a rarely seen phenomenon. Once a hurricane crests over high cat. 4 status, the storms replace eyes on a quite different method. Rapid Eye Wall Replacement(REWR) is a real threat. Instead of a collapse in the eye wall, we see more of a pulsing. Time to replacement is measure in hundreds of minutes not in 8-12 hours. It is almost as if there is a frequency to it. Due to the nature of REWR the storm loses less power, during eye replacement, than a smaller storm would. NO was lucky that Kat hit right in the middle of a REWR. Thus the storm dropped from 4 to 5.
I think this point was raised last time but from the research I have seen, it seems that once a storm hits high cat. 4-5 level, the storm behaves more like a tornado than a normal hurricane. IIRC tornado centers pulse as well.

On a side note that anticipated lifting of the high, centered of SW Texas, has not yet occurred. As long as that stays in place the storms track will continue on a more true westerly track. I know they have been anticipating the High to slide Eats, but I am not seeing that yet. To be fair I am not a meteorologist and I do not know what the interaction of two strong disparate pressure systems will result in.


www.goes.noaa.gov..." target='_blank' class='tabOff'/>
East CONUS Water Vapor Loop

It is possible that if that high can sit there for a few more days Houston and surrounding areas may just dodge this “bullet”, yet!




posted on Sep, 21 2005 @ 01:18 PM
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Originally posted by Harry55
For those ats folks predicting cat 5 its now reported by Weather Channel 923 mb and falling. Only 4 mb away. Does anyone know how long in the Gulf past storms like Rita can maintain this without eyewall breaking down ? Just curious how likely Rita will be able to maintain this strength all the way to landfall.


I don't think eyewall replacement takes that long, it looks like Rita probably has time to go through several before landfall. I think it'll be blind luck whether she has a strong eyewall or not when she makes landfall.



posted on Sep, 21 2005 @ 01:28 PM
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That's frightening!! Already at 920 mbr and only needs to get to 155 mph to be a Cat 5.


I wonder how much stronger this could be, landfall, than Katrina was??



posted on Sep, 21 2005 @ 01:33 PM
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Katrina hit at a Cat 4 if I recall, but the real problem was of course New Orleans being below sea level and "filling up" once the levees went....

I think it's pretty likely this may hit at a Cat 5, but even if it does, we won't see the same damage we saw in Katrina... This will be more wind damage, and surge along the beach....but not the flooding we saw with Katrina. Don't get me wrong, it'd still be catastrophic, but the aftermath will be more typical...nothing like what we saw in NO....



It is possible that if that high can sit there for a few more days Houston and surrounding areas may just dodge this “bullet”, yet!


Yep, the satellite seems to hint to this too...more of a south Texas, north Mexico target maybe... That'd be a lot better....


[edit on 21-9-2005 by Gazrok]



posted on Sep, 21 2005 @ 01:34 PM
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Originally posted by Imperium Americana
It is possible that if that high can sit there for a few more days Houston and surrounding areas may just dodge this “bullet”, yet!


Very informative post.


Yeah, I was thinking about the current high pressure system as well. It seems like it's been here forever already. Another couple of days shouldn't be too tough.

Peace



posted on Sep, 21 2005 @ 01:36 PM
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Is there a maximum Category 5?? what I mean is does the NHC at some point say a storm is greater than a Cat 5 or does the Cat 5 encompasses everything greater than 155mph??

I know the lowest recorded pressure was 888mb with Hurricane Gilbert. Is there an imaginary mark for pressure too? like anything below let's 850mb would be considered a Cat 6 or something???



posted on Sep, 21 2005 @ 01:37 PM
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Category 5 is it, no 6 or higher is defined.



posted on Sep, 21 2005 @ 01:39 PM
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Rita looks like she may become an annular hurricane, which means these types of storms are not prone to fluctuations in intensity related to eyewall replacement cycles.

Annular Hurricane info:
www.ssec.wisc.edu...


Katrina went annular at her peak.



posted on Sep, 21 2005 @ 01:42 PM
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thanks dj and thanks Reg, I've never heard the term "annular" hurricane before...interesting info. i'll go read now



posted on Sep, 21 2005 @ 01:46 PM
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Officials at the South Texas Project nuclear plant in Bay City, Texas, are preparing to shut the facility down before Rita arrives, a spokesman said.

The plant, which powers 1 million customers, is built on elevated ground 12 miles inland from the Texas coast to withstand storm surges from Category 5 hurricanes. In addition, the two reactor containment buildings are made of 4-foot-thick steel-reinforced concrete walls -- strong enough to withstand a Category 5 storm or a direct impact of a Boeing 767.

CNN




posted on Sep, 21 2005 @ 01:49 PM
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Originally posted by Dr Love

Originally posted by Imperium Americana
It is possible that if that high can sit there for a few more days Houston and surrounding areas may just dodge this “bullet”, yet!


Very informative post.


Yeah, I was thinking about the current high pressure system as well. It seems like it's been here forever already. Another couple of days shouldn't be too tough.

Peace


Thanks!


On a related note, I was doing some additional research on REWR and found some very interesting white papers on a discovery related to REWR. The process is called Eyewall Mesocyclonic Vortices or EM for short. Here is a link to the paper:

Super Typhoon Oliwa

Also here is a paper discussing, get this!!!...... Triple Eye Walls Holy freaking crap!!! LOL

3x Eye Walls

Both are Docs you download, but they have some cool images. Especially the EM one. Look for the red and green Microwave image of the Eye and the two surrounding EMs. They are the comma / Parenthesis on the left and right side of the eye.



posted on Sep, 21 2005 @ 01:51 PM
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Originally posted by Ptolomeo
....or a direct impact of a Boeing 767.


Oh man,
, here we go again!!! Haven't I heard that somewhere before?

Sorry for the slight detour.

Peace



posted on Sep, 21 2005 @ 01:57 PM
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Originally posted by Ptolomeo
Officials at the South Texas Project nuclear plant in Bay City, Texas, are preparing to shut the facility down before Rita arrives, a spokesman said.


South Texas ranks 17th on EIA's list of 100 largest power plants, that's going to hurt the grid in Texas.

Also that plant was leaking a couple years ago.
Nuke plant in Texas finds leaks in reactor

STP nuclear power plant
www.stpnoc.com...



posted on Sep, 21 2005 @ 02:02 PM
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Very good finds all. This kind of research by all ats folks is what makes me very proud to be a member here. Its very educational and entertaining at the same time. We all are reporting finds before the local news has access to it. We may by chance provide information that would convince someone reading to heed all the warnings and seek safety . That makes all this worth it to me.



posted on Sep, 21 2005 @ 02:05 PM
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Originally posted by Regenmacher
Rita looks like she may become an annular hurricane, which means these types of storms are not prone to fluctuations in intensity related to eyewall replacement cycles.


Interesting.....Seems to be a realtion in our research. EMs are mentioned in your paper. There must be some mechanics to the "breathing" of a system in a Super Storm (cat 5) and the EMs. I wonder if storms with very low pressure, develope these in response to the system's demand for more energy. humm.... gonna have to do some more digging. I have sent a e-mail with a few questions to NOAA. i willpost the resonse when, or if...they are quite busy right now, when I receive it.



posted on Sep, 21 2005 @ 02:17 PM
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There might not be an official 'Cat 6' hurricane or whatever, but we can all use our common sense and describe it as something beyond a Cat 5 if it reached say 200MPH sustained winds.



posted on Sep, 21 2005 @ 02:26 PM
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Originally posted by picard_is_actually_a_grey
There might not be an official 'Cat 6' hurricane or whatever, but we can all use our common sense and describe it as something beyond a Cat 5 if it reached say 200MPH sustained winds.


oh God no!



posted on Sep, 21 2005 @ 02:32 PM
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Wow, I get home from work and she's down to 920............



posted on Sep, 21 2005 @ 02:32 PM
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Originally posted by Imperium Americana
I wonder if storms with very low pressure, develope these in response to the system's demand for more energy.


Only 1% of all Atlantic systems become annular hurricanes. WPAC typhoons develop lower pressures in general, so comparing them to the Atlantic basin cyclones may not provide a valid analogy.

Also that high pressure dome may not effect a cat 5 system, since Rita will virtually make her own atmospherics. As you may recall initially Katrina was forecasted to hit the FL panhandle due to ridging and we know how that went.

That being said, Rita has been moving slightly slower than forecast It does not appear as if the high is quite having the influence in accelerating the torm as was believed in previous forecasts. So, Rita will likely not be quite as far west before turning north as previous expected.

Comparison: Katrina at 145mph (left) and Rita at 150mph (right)



Forecasting is like crystalball reading, and mine gets foggy periodically.


So use the NHC for the official word, and not me.

[edit on 21-9-2005 by Regenmacher]



posted on Sep, 21 2005 @ 02:37 PM
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Rita is now on the verge of becoming a category 5. Now she has winds of 150mph and a pressure of 920mb. I expect the storm to stregthen further before the 5pm EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center. The situation is getting worse for Texas, though I am happy to hear that they are taking steps to get ready for this one.



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