Bird Flu: Hype or Real Threat?

Still, it is heartening to know that work is proceeding to protect the food industry, the farmers who's livelihoods depend on raising poultry and the people who like to eat it!

This statement is rather puzzling though:

No avian viruses have been found infecting humans since 1997.

Does this mean that the human vaccines which are being developed are for precautionary measures only?

Also, what should be a concern to us all is if the virus is found in the native bird population. What effects it could cause to the ecosystem if these flocks are decimated by this disease.

No avian viruses have been found infecting humans since 1997.

Human Death in Indonesia due to Bird Flu

This death happened yesturday...

That quote is probably from the CCP or out of date. Can't be bothered to check right now.

[edit on 17-9-2005 by sardion2000]

Here's the list since that FAQ was written in Feb 1999 :

Instances of Avian Influenza Infections in Humans

Confirmed instances of avian influenza viruses infecting humans since 1997 include:

* H5N1, Hong Kong, 1997 : Avian influenza A (H5N1) infections occurred in both poultry and humans. This was the first time an avian influenza virus had ever been found to transmit directly from birds to humans. During this outbreak, 18 people were hospitalized and six of them died. To control the outbreak, authorities killed about 1.5 million chickens to remove the source of the virus. Scientists determined that the virus spread primarily from birds to humans, though rare person-to-person infection was noted.

* H9N2, China and Hong Kong, 1999 : Avian influenza A H9N2 illness was confirmed in two children. Both patients recovered, and no additional cases were confirmed. The evidence suggested that poultry was the source of infection and the main mode of transmission was from bird to human. However, the possibility of person-to-person transmission could not be ruled out. Several additional human H9N2 infections were reported from mainland China in 1998-99.

* H7N2, Virginia, 2002: Following an outbreak of H7N2 among poultry in the Shenandoah Valley poultry production area, one person was found to have serologic evidence of infection with H7N2.

* H5N1, China and Hong Kong, 2003 : Two cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) infection occurred among members of a Hong Kong family that had traveled to China. One person recovered, the other died. How or where these two family members were infected was not determined. Another family member died of a respiratory illness in China, but no testing was done.

* H7N7, Netherlands, 2003 : The Netherlands reported outbreaks of influenza A (H7N7) in poultry on several farms. Later, infections were reported among pigs and humans. In total, 89 people were confirmed to have H7N7 influenza virus infection associated with this poultry outbreak. These cases occurred mostly among poultry workers. H7N7-associated illness included 78 cases of conjunctivitis (eye infections) only; 5 cases of conjunctivitis and influenza-like illnesses with cough, fever, and muscle aches; 2 cases of influenza-like illness only; and 4 cases that were classified as “other.” There was one death among the 89 total cases The death occurred in a veterinarian who visited one of the affected farms and developed acute respiratory distress syndrome and complications related to H7N7 infection. The majority of these cases occurred as a result of direct contact with infected poultry; however, Dutch authorities reported three possible instances of transmission from poultry workers to family members. Since that time, no other instances of H7N7 infection among humans have been reported.

* H9N2, Hong Kong, 2003 : H9N2 infection was confirmed in a child in Hong Kong. The child was hospitalized but recovered.

* H7N2, New York, 2003: In November 2003, a patient with serious underlying medical conditions was admitted to a hospital in New York with respiratory symptoms. One of the initial laboratory tests identified an influenza A virus that was thought to be H1N1. The patient recovered and went home after a few weeks. Subsequent confirmatory tests conducted in March 2004 showed that the patient had been infected with an H7N2 avian influenza virus. An investigation to determine the source of infection is ongoing.

* H5N1, Thailand and Vietnam, 2004: In January 2003, outbreaks of highly pathogenic influenza A (H5N1) in Asia were first reported by the World Health Organization. From December 30, 2003, to March 17, 2004, 12 confirmed human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) were reported in Thailand and 23 in Vietnam, resulting in a total of 23 deaths. Visit www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/asia.htm, www.oie.int, and www.who.int/en for more information.

* H7N3 in Canada , 2004: In February 2004, human infections of H7N3 among poultry workers were associated with an H7N3 outbreak among poultry. The H7N3-associated illnesses consisted of eye infections.

* H5N1, Thailand and Vietnam, 2004 and 2005: Beginning in late June 2004, new lethal outbreaks of H5N1 among poultry were reported by several countries in Asia. The new outbreaks of H5N1 in poultry in Asia were followed by renewed sporadic reporting of human cases of H5N1 infection in Vietnam and Thailand beginning in August and continuing into 2005. Of particular note is one isolated instance of probable limited human-to-human transmission occurring in Thailand in September.

______________________________


Cause of Death/ Lifetime Odds

Heart Disease 1-in-5

Cancer 1-in-7

Stroke 1-in-23

Accidental Injury 1-in-36

Motor Vehicle Accident 1-in-100

Intentional Self-harm (suicide) 1-in-121

Falling Down 1-in-246

Assault by Firearm 1-in-325

Fire or Smoke 1-in-1,116

Natural Forces (heat, cold, storms, quakes, etc.) 1-in-3,357

Electrocution 1-in-5,000

Drowning 1-in-8,942

Air Travel Accident 1-in-20,000

Flood 1-in-30,000

Legal Execution 1-in-58,618

Tornado 1-in-60,000

Lightning Strike (included also in Natural Forces above) 1-in-83,930

Snake, Bee or other Venomous Bite or Sting 1-in-100,000

Earthquake (included also in Natural Forces above) 1-in-131,890

Dog Attack 1-in-147,717

Asteroid Impact 1-in-200,000

Tsunami 1-in-500,000

Fireworks Discharge 1-in-615,488

Bird Flu 1-in-112,100,000 based on currrent stats.

Conclusion: odds in being brainwashed by the media to buy vaccines and lab chemicals 1-in-2.

[edit on 17-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

Risk analysis is very very tricky when dealing with a rapidly mutating virus. Downplaying the threat could get allot of people kill. One thing that's bugging me, if this Bird Flu "scare" was really a scare then you'd think the MSM would be all over it, but I barely hear a peep and that worries me. Why? Read the Spanish Flu Wiki article. We are technically in a Wartime scenario, how much will "they" lie to prevent what they percieve to be a risk of a widespread panic?

Originally posted by sardion2000
Risk analysis is very very tricky when dealing with a rapidly mutating virus. Downplaying the threat could get allot of people kill. One thing that's bugging me, if this Bird Flu "scare" was really a scare then you'd think the MSM would be all over it, but I barely hear a peep and that worries me. Why? Read the Spanish Flu Wiki article. We are technically in a Wartime scenario, how much will "they" lie to prevent what they perceive to be a risk of a widespread panic?

Considering no one here has a crystal ball and I am not prone to media induced paranoia in order to seperate me from my wallet for magical snake oil cures, let's stick with the present statistics.



I don't consider the current vaccines a viable preventive measure for that matter. A specific vaccine against pandemic virus cannot be made until the final strain emerges. That and current global manufacturing capacity is around 300 million regular flu doses a year. So realistically, you probably won't get the correct vaccine and it may compromise your immunity, thus you become a victim of hype...chalk one up for big pharma.

Maybe a bear attack suit is a more efficient way to spend money for longetivity's sake, since you're more likely to get run over by a drunken pensioner while walking across the street.

Why Most Published Research Findings Are False
Published Research is majorly false. That is the upshot of a recent Greek study which examined the outcomes of scientific studies against subsequent research which proved them unreliable. It seems that most studies "find" whatever outcome the funders desire.

With most funding for health related research coming from pharmaceutical companies, it is no wonder that there should be a certain bias. Contradictory outcomes of studies are common. Many of the false studies are trumpeted up in the press as if previous research they contradict did not exist, even if study quality is extremely dubious. Both scientific research and the media are involved in this game.









[edit on 17-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

For those posters that have questions about the H5N1 avian influenza, please visit this thread...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

As far as the topic of this thread goes, it would be quite dangerous
to view this as "hype".

Any highly pathogenic virus (HPAI) that has shown the ability to presist in the avian population without killing off it's host and continues to aquire human/mammalian gene sequences is worthy of our attention! Most avian sequences are species specific.
H5N1 has shown a novel ability to directly jump species (bird to feline, bird to human etc...) This in itself is great cause for concern!

But it gets better...

A - It has a 100% case fatility rate in domestic chickens (20 hours)
B - It has a 100% case fatility rate in mice (1-4 days)
C - It has mutated into several variants that are hard to track via gene sequencing (the fact that some countries have not released either information or samples for sequencing...or they just don't test at all is disturbing)
D - It has a case fatility rate of 50% in homosapiens....contrast the fact that the 1918 Spanish Influenza had a 3.5% deathrate and that killed approximately 50-100 million worldwide. Okay now run the numbers yourself...world pop. = 6.5 Billion, and figure that 25% of the pop gets infected.....scary, is'nt it?

So it remains to be seen if H5N1 will aquire another human sequence that will enable it to go H2H. But never think of it as "hype".

BTW it could'nt hurt to start buying a couple of extra cans of food the next time you go to the store...if nothing happens you can always eat it later.

PS...really,...go visit the above mentioned thread for info on how to prepare and survive a pandemic.

[edit on 18-9-2005 by gman55]

The "It's Hype" are stories coming out.



Kaboom your heart explodes...



Welcome to the Culture of Fear, got Digoxin?



No vaccine, but lots of worry...news at 5 , myocardial infarction number one killer.


WHO won't push for generic bird flu drug



[edit on 20-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

PSB (in my area) has a show on H5N1 tonight, 10pm est:

Wide Angle

Tuesday, September 20, 10:00pm
H5N1---Killer Flu

“H5N1---Killer Flu” assesses the possibility of a global avian-flu pandemic as it traces the virus to its source in Vietnam and studies cases of victims. One, an 18-year-old Mekong Delta farm woman who often handled birds, died.
In Stereo (CC)
Ed. Taping Rights: 1 year

I think it's a hype, just like SARS was. We fear what we do not know, which IS sometimes a good thing too, however it can be exploited.

"Realtime" death counter:
webdeveloper.earthweb.com...

[edit on 21/9/2005 by SwearBear]

Originally posted by SwearBear
I think it's a hype, just like SARS was. We fear what we do not know, which IS sometimes a good thing too, however it can be exploited.

SARS was no hype...just ask the widows and orphaned children out there.

As far as fearing what we do not know, thats a correct human emotion. We know a great deal more about H5N1 than we did about SARS before it exploded.
Luck was on our side then since SARS is a coronavirus and does not reside in the avian population as a natural reserve. H5N1 can pop-up anywhere wild birds do.

God, I'm starting to sound like a gloom and doom freak

Ok then, here it is...."Fear the feathered one".

Boy does that sound goofy.

If you really believe it's hype, then I can not dissuade you and I wish you well in life. You may also want to pickup a few extra cans of food every time you shop anyway...couldn't hurt!

The sky is falling , the sky is falling!



Well looks like the they were promoting fear to sell more vaccines as this whole thing unfolds to reveal the true nature of the beast...greed.


WHO warns against bird flu 'scaremongering'

The United Nations health agency warned against "scaremongering" over an expected global flu pandemic, a day after one of its officials said it could claim 150 million lives.

Dick Thompson, spokesman for the World Health Organization's (WHO) anti-flu operations, said it is nearly impossible to predict the death toll of a global crisis that experts fear could be fueled by Asia's bird flu outbreak.

People should be wary of any figure they hear, because all are based on "guesswork," he said.

"We can't be dragged into further scaremongering," Thompson told reporters.
sg.news.yahoo.com...

Ya hear that, GUESSWORK...throw away them crystal scareballs, cause your more likely to have a heart attack than bird flu if you live on a diet of fear and anxiety.

Was Hitchcock right?
Stories about bird-borne diseases are worrisome, but hold off on giving the kids' pet chicken the ax
But before you begin eyeballing your bird as a harbinger of death, take note: While birds may be the reservoir for the virus, mosquitoes are the problem to humans. There is no known documented evidence of someone catching the virus from handling a live or dead infected bird (although you should always avoid direct skin contact with sick or dead birds and other animals).

World Health Agency Tones Down Alarm on Possible Flu Pandemic
New York Times, United States

British stockpiled flu drug may be useless
Science Daily

Come winter WHO will reduce bird flu predictions to less than 1000 at this rate, and your tax dollars are being spent on worthless vaccines. Still think it's not bird flu propaganda or playing on fear?

Originally posted by SwearBear
"Realtime" death counter:
webdeveloper.earthweb.com...

SwearBear, that link appears to be dead!

Looks like the address was altered due to the forums's text sanitizer,
it adds a line in front of the word _javascript(s). Most likely for security reasons.

Try this instead: /rodb

posted in error

[edit on 4-10-2005 by DontTreadOnMe]

To simply answer the question as to whether "the bird flu" or the "Avian flu" is just hype or whether it is, indeed, real, I would have to say that it is a genuine threat. Thanks, in part to improvements in medicine and general sanitation and hygiene, the human race has been very lucky over the past few decades that we have not had a serious pandemic. Unfortunately, the avian flu does indeed appear to be exactly that, a pandemic. Hopefully, researchers will be able to develop vaccines which will provide some sort of immunity to this latest threat. Of course, if they do find a vaccine and we are able to avert any global epidemic of the avian flu, there will be those who will simply state that it was all just "hype".

You guys better believe in the flu, Bush was reading this book "The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague in History by John M Barry."
on his last vaction. It's serious.

Anxiety and worry over things beyond your control will compromise your immune system. then maybe the regular flu will kill ya anyways. Either way, if your on a suicide mission your bound to meet your goals.

You can't get a vaccine for a specific strain, until the strain is out.

Fear generation gets sick faster....

You asked, Bird Flu: Hype or Real Threat?

We could probably all agree, rationally, that it's a little of both, right?

So why are you fighting so hard to eliminate the "real threat" part? Will you not admit that it may become a pandemic? No matter how low the percentage of risk, many people would rather prepare by buying some extra goods and having a little backup plan. Is there something wrong with that?

Don't be so persistent in defending one possibility that you become blind to the other...

CNBC late nite show was pointing out that that bird flu has been around for 100's of years , and with ZERO cases in this country, all of a sudden Bush mentions it as a national threat, military quarantine and martial law in the same sentence. Isn't that special.


Bush military bird flu role slammed

Since no one is buying off on the terror threat b.s. anymore, they need to have the legal mechanisms in place to suppress social unrest when the sheeple realize how badly they been screwed over by the system.

The real bird flu plan unravels as a general suppression of rights and the erosion of constitutional freedoms as new laws, plans and funding are implemented under the guise NWO bird flu boogieman.

Flashback to smallpox scare:
archives.cnn.com...

Is anyone here old enough to remember Swine flu (early 70's?). It broke out on an army base. Sounded suspiciously like a military experiment gone wrong. A national inoculation campaign was instituted that ended up killing lots of old folks. Meanwhile, the swine flu never developed into anything of note.

Isn't it interesting how a virus that has killed 60 people in 18 months should justify quarantine and martial law, while thousands of AIDS-carriers are allowed to roam around the world infecting others freely.

Your fears lead to the elimination of liberty, nothing like beoing scammed out of you rights to be a healthy prisoner.


Additional reading:
ATSNN.com Bush Wants To Use American Military To Curb Bird Flu





[edit on 5-10-2005 by Regenmacher]