NEWS: Avian Flu and the UN Summit in New York

At the UN Summit this week WHO (The World Health Orginization) and President Bush discussed the threat that Avian Flu presents to the world's population. Armed with the facts that right now this strain of flu kills 55% of humans who contract it President Bush and WHO officials are saying that we must take the offensive in this fight. But other officials are saying that this call to action is too late. That already morgues in London are looking for additional space to be used in case this disease strikes.



When the Spanish Flu was a pandemic in 1918 there wasn't the international travel that there is now. This flu could circle the globe in a week or two. How quickly could people be quarantined to prevent the further spread of this disease? We have seen from the devastation from Katrina that it takes time for the government to mobilize to assist people - what happens when the people who do the assisting are among the people suffering from the disease? What happens when the people who stock our groceries and pharmacies are sick and dying along with our doctors and nurses? What happens when the very people who handle our dead are dying from this disease will there be mass graves because there are no employees to process the dead and/or dig individual graves?

Related AboveTopSecret.com Discussion Threads:
NEWS: Expert Says: Arrival of Bird Flu in Britain is Inevitable
NEWS: Bird Flu Hits Finland
Hey buddy... Spare Some Food?
Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) Links and Discussion Threads


[edit on 15-9-2005 by justme1640]

[edit on 15-9-2005 by justme1640]

With all of the talk of needing to be prepared, the United States is far from it.

The United States only has enough Tamiflu, the drug that seems to work against H5N1, for 2.5 million Americans. That's less than 1% of the population of the United States, where Great Britain and Austrailia have enough for 25% and 20% of their population, respectively.

Furthermore, faced with worldwide demand, the Roche company, which produces Tamiflu, has organized a first-come, first-served waiting list. The United States is nowhere near the top.

This might beg the question as to why we're not ready.

The answer from Government officials? "I can't answer that. I don't know the answer to that."

Granted, a pandemic of H5N1 may never happen. But what if it does?

Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research, put it this way:

"If you look at the expected number of deaths that could occur in cities across the United States, we are wholly unprepared to process those bodies in a dignified and respectful way. We will run out of caskets literally within days."

And we're not talking about hundreds of people dead, we're talking, quite possibly, about hundreds of thousands of people dead.

This is a real real threat folks. Whether it be this year or the next few, they have been telling this bed time story to us for a long time so nobody should be surprised should it become a reality.
My suggestion is always have cash on hand, stockpile your own Tamiflu because the still sell to independants, and stock pile water in case of quarantine.

I was going to post this as a news submission but it will also fit into this thread.
U.S. buys $100 million of bird flu vaccine

Mass production of a new vaccine that promises to protect against bird flu is poised to begin, as the government on Thursday agreed to stockpile $100 million worth of inoculations.
The new contract with French vaccine maker Sanofi-Pasteur marks a major scale-up in U.S. preparation for the possibility that the worrisome virus could spark an influenza pandemic

So the US is at least starting to take steps in protecting itself.

My suggestion is always have cash on hand, stockpile your own Tamiflu because the still sell to independants, and stock pile water in case of quarantine.

Tamiflu is available only by prescription in the US.

So the US is at least starting to take steps in protecting itself.

Wow...I'm suprised we didn't wait til the pandemic hit.

But, again, we're a day late and a dollar short. Even with the $100 million spent, that will only give us enough for approximately 4.5 million people (a little over 1% of the US population). And, the drug they're getting isn't Tamiflu, it's another drug. Additionally, the vaccine is still experimental.

But, again, we're a day late and a dollar short. Even with the $100 million spent, that will only give us enough for approximately 4.5 million people (a little over 1% of the US population). And, the drug they're getting isn't Tamiflu, it's another drug. Additionally, the vaccine is still experimental.

I believe this will be for the "priority groups" as described by the WHO in their recent report to member nations.

Use antiviral drugs to protect priority groups
WHO recommends that countries with sufficient resources invest in a stockpile of
antiviral drugs for domestic use, particularly at the start of a pandemic when mass
vaccination is not an option and priority groups, such as frontline workers, need to
be protected.
www.who.int...

Don't worry though they have already advised governments to come up with a plan as to how to explain to the public that certain "priority groups" are getting vaccinated while the majority are not.

Many difficult issues – the inevitable
spread to all countries, the shortage of vaccines and antiviral drugs, justification for
the selection of priority groups for protection – will need to be addressed. Effective
risk communication, supported by confidence in government authorities and the
reliability of their information, may help mitigate some of the social and economic
disruption attributed to an anxious public.
www.who.int...

Considering the fact that a month ago whilst on his most recent vacation Bush was reported to have been reading about the Great Influenza, and the WHO has given suggestions in the case of a Pandemic...I am especially concerned...Oh and never mind that 1% of the population control the wealth, and it just so happens that we recently procured enough anti-virals for roughly 1% of the population, tháts just coincidence.

I know I have slowly been adding to my stocks of things that hold well (flour, sugar, coffee [The MOST important thing] pasta, tuna, supplies for the home, water and flavor mixes for water) but I am no where near ready. I have also been thinking seriously about a food dehydrator. Have been reading a list about what people are actually dehydrating and using. I even bought Purell hand sanitizing wipes in small packets to keep in my purse - and I have never been one to believe in that.

The more I read about this the more concerned I become. I am beginning to think they might not be telling us everything (sarcasm intended)

My aunt that died recently was old enough to remember the pandemic with the Spanish Flu and told me horror stories about friends and relatives dying. And being stuck in the house because people were afraid to leave.

Here's the Department of Health and Human Services plans for a response to a pandemic based on a limited supply of vaccine (note, this only a draft):

When first available, the pandemic influenza vaccine supply will be less than that required to protect the susceptible population. The duration of this shortage stage cannot be predicted but could include the entire first pandemic season. Several planning issues are of particular importance for this phase of vaccine shortage:

Priority groups for vaccination will need to be identified. The ability to target available vaccine supply will be important to optimally reduce morbidity and mortality, and decrease social and economic disruption. Although broad guidance will be provided nationally based on the epidemiology of the outbreak, state and local health departments will need to more specifically define priority groups. Moreover, because available vaccine supply may initially be insufficient to vaccinate all persons in defined priority groups, specific sub-populations within these groups should be identified to further target vaccination.

Plans for rapid, efficient, and equitable distribution of vaccine will need to be formulated. Under the current system, substantial disparities occur in availability of vaccine to health care providers and in vaccine coverage among racial and ethnic groups. State and local health department plans for vaccine distribution and administration should ensure equitable access by persons in defined priority groups.

Approaches to inform priority groups about the availability of vaccine and where to receive it; and to educate the public regarding vaccine priorities and their rationale will be needed. Public education will be crucial to ensure that priority groups present for vaccination at times and places where vaccine is available. Persons not in groups identified for earliest vaccination also must be educated regarding the rationale for established priorities and must be assured that they will be vaccinated when additional vaccine becomes available.

Systems need to be developed to identify those who have been vaccinated. If a two-dose schedule is needed, this system ideally should have the capability to identify those who are due for the second dose and to generate reminders. The system could be linked with or use the same technology as existing state and local immunization registries or could be similar to the pre-event vaccination system developed by the CDC to track smallpox vaccination.

Vaccine effectiveness and safety need to be monitored. Whereas efficacy and safety are important at all phases of vaccine supply, evaluation is particularly important during the earliest stages of vaccine use. Results of efficacy studies may lead to modifying recommendations to optimize vaccine dosing or schedules. Epidemiological investigations of disease and mortality could lead to changes in priority groups for vaccination. Early and intensive vaccine safety monitoring can identify any unexpected and/or serious adverse events, help guide development of educational efforts and key communication messages and materials, and assure program acceptability.

The full document can be found here:
www.dhhs.gov...

[edit on 16-9-2005 by elderban]

from elderban's post

Plans for rapid, efficient, and equitable distribution of vaccine will need to be formulated. Under the current system, substantial disparities occur in availability of vaccine to health care providers and in vaccine coverage among racial and ethnic groups. State and local health department plans for vaccine distribution and administration should ensure equitable access by persons in defined priority groups.

So it sounds like my DH who is in the Fire Department and Rescue Squad may get on the list for vaccine but I would be left off.

Phoenix it is interesting that Bush was reading about the Great Influenza (btw your link doesn't work anymore) while on vacation -- not exactly light reading for vacations. Sound like he might be trying to learn as much as he can about something that is pretty sure to happen in his mind from the intelligence he has been privy to that we don't hear.

The idea that we need enough drugs for everyone in the population is misleading. If this really hits the United States it won't be nearly as bad as the alarmists will have you believe. Containment would be a hell of a lot faster than anyone can imagine simply because it's viewed as such a threat. I, for one, am not concerned and I wish these periodic cries of the next big "pandemic" would be reported by the media in a more responsible manner. It's only lining the pockets of the drug company execs.... gawd knows the workers don't see a penny of it.

I wish these periodic cries of the next big "pandemic" would be reported by the media in a more responsible manner. It's only lining the pockets of the drug company execs.... gawd knows the workers don't see a penny of it.

And exactly HOW many pandemic's have you lived through? No? None? Ok then most of us including those reporting it haven't either. They just know from historical accounts what it can do to bring nations to their knees.
We have NO immunity to this particular strain. So very likely if this were to strike us you would bear witness to something you have never likely seen in your entire life.

Tamiflu is available only by prescription in the US.

Elderban, check around you would be surprised.

The idea that we need enough drugs for everyone in the population is misleading. If this really hits the United States it won't be nearly as bad as the alarmists will have you believe. Containment would be a hell of a lot faster than anyone can imagine simply because it's viewed as such a threat.

In addition to above Cyberian. Have any of us considered "containment"?
Have any one of us had martial law declared on them during our life time, been ordered not to leave our homes under any circumstances due to quarantine?
I implore you to consider what implications this could have on us. We have never had to live or survive under those conditions before and I would believe that most would become angry after a time when they realize that a containment period means just that. Not leaving your home AT ALL.

Originally posted by CyberianHusky

... it won't be nearly as bad as the alarmists will have you believe. Containment would be a hell of a lot faster than anyone can imagine simply because it's viewed as such a threat.

Oh yeah? Like maybe we could lock human victims up in containment camps, but let the wild birds fly free?

QUOTE


Bird flu is carried by birds, which carry the virus around the world. Various animals including cats get the disease. The virus is present in the meat of infected animals like ducks and chickens. It is long-lived and attaches to surfaces like feathers - it also is present in excretions, which means it's in the environment and is transmitted via soil and water.

So as the CDC's Dr. Fukuda pointed out in 2003, quarantine won't work to control bird flu.

"(Dr. Keiji Fukuda, an influenza expert at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) said H5N1 was spreading so fast and so far that traditional efforts to control it - culling, vaccinating and quarantining flocks - would not always work."

Reuter's Report: Deleted
Full Article Still Online Here

As any farmer can tell you, quarantine never works if you don't clean the barn. In this case, the barn is the whole planet. Rather than quarantining select human victims, it would be far more effective for the US government to enforce existent EPA regulations and ensure safe water treatment.

Yet instead of tackling the most significant bird flu transmission vectors - plus other emerging epidemic infectious diseases in America's water and environment - the Bush administration is focusing solely on person-to-person transmission and planning quarantine, which a) won't work, and b) will curtail civil liberties. One needs to wonder why.

END QUOTE

Bush Signs Quarantine Orders for Bird Flu

Originally posted by soficrow
Bird flu is carried by birds, which carry the virus around the world. Various animals including cats get the disease. The virus is present in the meat of infected animals like ducks and chickens. It is long-lived and attaches to surfaces like feathers - it also is present in excretions, which means it's in the environment and is transmitted via soil and water.

As any farmer can tell you, quarantine never works if you don't clean the barn. In this case, the barn is the whole planet. Rather than quarantining select human victims, it would be far more effective for the US government to enforce existent EPA regulations and ensure safe water treatment.

Yet instead of tackling the most significant bird flu transmission vectors - plus other emerging epidemic infectious diseases in America's water and environment - the Bush administration is focusing solely on person-to-person transmission and planning quarantine, which a) won't work, and b) will curtail civil liberties. One needs to wonder why.

I hope I snipped this enough - I took out anything I wasn't going to ask about but felt that these particular paragraphs were important to the questions.

1) so if we eat chickens etc that have this we can get it -- does it cross over that way ever?
2) If an infected bird dies and falls in the water or just "goes" in the water there is a chance that the disease can be transmitted thru the city water?

Thanks as you can tell I need things broken down into the simplest terms possible.



[edit on 19-9-2005 by justme1640]

Justme - yes you can become infected by eating an infected bird. This is how the transmission in part is taking place in the Asian countries: Thailand for example had a family of 4 that ingested chickens that were infected with the H5N1.
Also poultry farmers that are handling the birds are becoming infected.
To date the virus has yet to make the transission to human to human alone.

Your second questions concerning a dead bird dropping into water. The answer to that would be no. It could not potentially contaminate our water supply. The reason for this is because a virus needs a host to continue survival. Unless another animal were to pick up the dead bird and ingest the bird then the virus would likely die within a 24 hr period.

Hope that helps

Originally posted by DDay
Your second questions concerning a dead bird dropping into water. The answer to that would be no. It could not potentially contaminate our water supply. The reason for this is because a virus needs a host to continue survival. Unless another animal were to pick up the dead bird and ingest the bird then the virus would likely die within a 24 hr period.

Hope that helps

Thanks DDay -- is it impossible for it to cross species then -- an example of the bird in the water being nibbled on by a fish then the fish being eaten by a person?

I know these are simple questions that most might already know the answers to but I figure that if I am wondering about it others might be also -- but not williing to put themselves in the hotseat of being known for dumb questions

This is an old pet topic of mine - and I've posted some of my work here at ATs. ...There is a history to this story - and MUCH more happening on the microbiological level than meets the eye.


1. Blaming China for bird flu is an old scam - and it's just not true. I am OUTRAGED at the injustice, and warmongering, implicit in these blame games.

WHO Refutes Claims Bird Flu Originated in China
english.people.com.cn...
www.chinadaily.com.cn...
insidecostarica.com...
bird-flu-news.newslib.com...


2. Here's a quick overview of hard scientific and political/economic information about bird flu available right here on ATS:

Flu Vaccine Technology: Who's Blocking its Use?

WHO Pushes for Bird Flu Vaccine Production

Bush Pushes Wrong Flu Vaccine to American People

Bush Signs Quarantine Orders for Bird Flu

Government Plans for Flu Epidemic: Update



Military Says Terrorists Might Use Bird Flu as Bioweapon

Threat Analysis: Genetically Engineered Stealth Bio-weapons

Humans Included in the 6th Mass Extinction?

I didn't say it couldn't cross speicies. It can! But if the bird were to die and fall into the water say and nothing came along and ate the bird then the virus wouldn't have a viable host to replicate itself in and thus would die with the bird.

If a fish were to come along and ingest the bird then yes the virus would have the capability to infect the fish. However, the likelihood of the that particular fish being caught and eaten would be remote. It also raises the question as to whether or not the virus could live in a cold blooded animal too.

They aren't stupid questions. I think it's smart to think outside the box so to speak and pose the question on how far it could potentially go.
thanks

this avian flu is some scary stuff i've done quite the amount of research myself and lately i've been noticing tons of ppl in ontario canada where i am from thare are getting really sick i wonder if there is any connections and anything that i could possbilly do to help wit hpublic awareness please help me out

Chris, I would start by inquiring about sick birds or any sort of fowl in the areas. In all liklihood it's just a common cold or a known flu but it's worth checking into.

what are the symptoms that you know of with the people getting sick? Maybe we can point you in a direction to compare symptoms to what is going on there.