Hurricane Ophelia. Heading For Florida ??

Luckily, this one won't likely have the time to get much stronger than a Tropical Storm, but even those can cause power outages and some damage, so a heads up for those on the East Coast, especially in N. Florida, and Georgia....

From the National Hurricane Center....

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT
ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA THE ABACOS...AND BIMINI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST VERY NEAR
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD
BEGIN LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
DEPRESSION.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...26.5 N... 78.6 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.



Interesting thought....what happens when we run out of storm names for this season?



[edit on 6-9-2005 by Gazrok]

[edit on 6-9-2005 by Gazrok]

[edit on 7-9-2005 by John bull 1]

[edit on 8-9-2005 by John bull 1]

What about the other one near Maria, where's that headed?

I think this one will be Ophelia, Nate's already out there threatening Bermuda....

Ah..missed that one, didn't see it on the NHC site for some reason...
i.e. didn't scroll down enough...

[edit on 6-9-2005 by Gazrok]

Tropical Weather Watch Thread

We have Hurricane Maria (threat to maritime interests only)
We have Tropical Storm Nate (May threaten Bermuda, when it decides to move)
We have Tropical Depression 16 (to be named Ophelia if and when it develops into a Tropical storm)

When we run out of names, it's the the Greek alphabet I believe

Models are all over the place right now, but the GFDL is highly consistant and look where it's tracking towards...ughhh. NHC official track is indicating Ophelia landfall northeast coast of Florida at a catagory 1 hurricane.

Still rather early and it all may change.

Originally posted by Gazrok
Luckily, this one won't likely have the time to get much stronger than a Tropical Storm, but even those can cause power outages and some damage, so a heads up for those on the East Coast, especially in N. Florida, and Georgia....

Wait, isn't slow moving over warm water when the thing gets worse? Why is this one not going to get that bad?

If GFDL is right this will be a disaster...the new levee patches probably can't withstand even a mild hurricane.

I'm hoping the GFDL is wrong, I tend to favor a track between the NHC and the A98E models. Right now it is absolutely unknown as to what this storm will do, it could meander in circles for the next 2-3 days or just slowly drift NW. But it deserves close monitoring.

[edit on 9-6-2005 by worldwatcher]

I grew up in Jax and still have a lot of family there. Hope this thing just wanders away.

Greek alphabet would be used after "Wilma"....yabba dabba doo, sorry couldn't resist.

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
Delta
Epsilon
Zeta
Eta
Theta
Iota
Kappa
Lambda......

It's going to take 2-3 consecutive model runs before we get a better idea of track and intensities.

Water vapor loop: looks like TD16's center may relocate farther North and convection is increasing dramatically.
www.ssd.noaa.gov...

Three tropical systems and a gulf disturbance in one sat image.
Can we say the Atlantic has exploded in activity?
twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu...

11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...CORRECTED MOTION FORECAST...

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT DRIFTS
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING
MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

No name still....maybe come morning



[edit on 6-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

Guess this is what they mean by "peak season"... wonders what the next 2 weeks have in store for us.

Whoa, whats with the perfect circle?

updated photo of TD16, nate and maria

Im kinda worried about nate coming to me, (in NY)

What is going on with this thing? At the moment the 5 day forecast doesn't even match any of the computer models. Everything seems erratic.

Though it still is showing no signs of going beyond a tropical storm, I am now in the tropical storm warning area.

FLOOD IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS FROM OPHELIA ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE REVISED IF THE FORECAST TRACK CHANGES.

...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS TO THE SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND HAS HELPED CREATE A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION...STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY. WINDS AT THE ST AUGUSTINE PIER HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 MPH OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS ALONG THE COAST.

Looks like the flood watches already in affect could continue for a few days, it's been pouring buckets since last night with no sign of letting up.

Still, no where near anything I would panic over personally, but I am certainly watching it like a hawk.

Just checked the Hurricane Tracker and saw Ophelia and then I saw this thread.

Interesting, though I doubt it will cross Florida at this stage. Katrina started a little further south and cross less land but even half way across it weakened to a Tropical Storm before getting stronger again.

I too favour the models that see it head out into the Atlantic.

PS, I think Ophelia was Hamlet's mad girlfriend who committed suicide but I could be wrong. Strange name for a storm.

PPS, For anyone interested the other storm names yet to come are;

Philippe
Rita
Stan
Tammy
Vince
Wilma

[edit on 7-9-2005 by John bull 1]

Some are predicting that it may cross over Florida and into the Gulf but is soo slow moving that is difficult to tell.

The longer it feeds on the warm waters the bigger it will get.

Wait, isn't slow moving over warm water when the thing gets worse? Why is this one not going to get that bad?

Still close to land though...but, at the time, they weren't expecting it to slow down...we're still only looking at about a cat 1 at worst, most likely, but then again, this season has been the one for rapid development, so who knows. I think those in GA, and S. Carolina should at least prepare for some wind and water. Even a Cat 1 can knock your power out (or a Tropical Storm), so best to be prepared.

Tropical Storm OPHELIA: winds-45kts, pressure: 1000mb



Looks like NHC track has Ophelia doing a loop, thus there's low confidence on the current track forecast. In any event, Ophelia is most likely to become a hurricane.

*Forecast track image above updates when new data becomes available,

www.nwhhc.com...

[edit on 7-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

The sat pics almost indicate some shearing, so that'd be good news.
Looping would be bad though...let's hope that doesn't happen....