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The Katrina Effect: facing economic depression

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posted on Sep, 5 2005 @ 03:55 AM
•Increased Federal spending for refugee care, cleaning up and rebuilding the Gulf Coast. This must come from the federal government since the states and local governments in the south are in no condition to contribute. Cost $100 billion+

•The Fed will most likely cut short the rate hikes. The markets are anticipating an almost immediate end to the rate hikes.

•1 Million jobs just vanished. Many will be created in the repairing and restoring of the Gulf Coast, but not nearly as many as were lost. You can bet that the entire region will go into economic reression or worse and echo its effects on the rest of the nation.

• Less oil and gas production means more imports of both from overseas. This will increase our trade deficit. Oil costs to skyrocket and in turn all product costs.

More Federal spending, slower economy bordering on collapse, higher trade deficits, and a stop in the rate hikes (or even some future cuts). The dollar rally is over. The Fed will start pumping liquidity although this is at risk of popping the credit and housing bubble.

The recession may be local but the slow down of growth will be worldwide.

Katrina May Curb Economic Growth Into 2006
Damage From Katrina Likely to Reverberate Across the Global Economy Well Into '06, Experts Say.

In Katrina's aftermath, forecasts for U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter have dropped from 3.5 percent on an annualized basis to 2.5 percent. And that is probably what gross domestic product will average for all of 2006, economists said.

How low can human beings sink? Keep watching the news. It’s not the first time civilizations have collapsed. This has all happened many times before. This behavior is not new. What is new — but is now dying — is our enshrined belief that there were to be no consequences of our reckless consumption and destruction of the ecosystem. What is now dying a horrible death is America’s grotesque global arrogance, brutality and cupidity....

.. As New Orleans is showing us, and as Groucho Marx once said, “You bet your life!”

It has been awhile since I have perused any Great Depression history, but I do remember the Dust Bowl displacing and disrupting large numbers of people who were forced to migrate in those times, which in turn ushered in economic collapse. Katrina is a striking parallel, can you feel it coming?

Are we approaching the perfect financial storm and collapse of the nation?

posted on Sep, 7 2005 @ 08:37 AM
A big question will the current group of market interventionists be able stem the prospects of a rising tide of global hyper-inflation? The hurricane exposed the man-made disaster of the welfare state and we have just begun to see the repercussions, but for now the world still seems in the shock and awe phase.

Massive losses in municipal bonds = bullish
Massive loss of employment = bullish
Massive loss in tax revenue = bullish
Massive loss to insurers = bullish
Massive loss of life = bullish

Amazing how this new financial math works sometimes.

Hurricane Expected to Cost Government Up to $100 Billion
WASHINGTON, Sept. 6 - The federal government's costs related to Hurricane Katrina could easily approach $100 billion, many times as much as for any other natural disaster or the $21 billion allocated for New York City after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

Disaster Price Tag for Katrina Balloons
WASHINGTON - Cost estimates for relief and recovery efforts from Hurricane Katrina are running as high as $150 billion, making it clear that a federal budget deficit picture that only weeks ago seemed to be brightening has now gotten considerably worse.

Katrina Spells Armageddon for Muni Bond Investors
Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. municipal bond investors now face their greatest challenge since the Great Depression. The devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana and Mississippi will result in tax delinquencies and bond defaults, bankruptcies and mortgage foreclosures.

Hurricane Katrina - A Supply Shock Interacts With Preexisting Demand Restraint
Hurricane Katrina is likely to end up being the most economically-disruptive U.S. natural disaster in years. The reason for this is that the nation's energy production has been reduced for some uncertain time and its water freight transportation has been disrupted. The Gulf of Mexico accounts for 30% of our oil production, 23% of our natural gas production and about 10% of our petroleum refining capacity. A significant amount of crude oil, natural gas and gasoline production has been halted by the hurricane with uncertainty as to when production will come back on line.

U.S. Lawmakers Urge Fed to Hold Interest Rates Steady Sept. 20
Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. lawmakers from both parties are urging the Federal Reserve to forgo raising interest rates at its Sept. 20 meeting to help consumers and businesses recover from the destruction of Hurricane Katrina.

CNOOC Chief Economist Predicts $90 Oil
SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- Oil will peak at $90 per barrel by March of next year, CNOOC Dep. Chief Economist Zhang Weiping said at conference discussing China's energy needs in Beijing on Monday. Zhang also expected global oil production to peak at 94-100 mb/day during the next five years.

U.S. to give out $2,000 debit cards to Katrina victims
WASHINGTON - The federal government plans to dole out debit cards worth $2,000 each to victims of Hurricane Katrina.

The Gulf is the heart of the oil industry, and thus you can say we've suffered a heart attack.
Quadriple bypass anyone?

So far the Greenspan magic show continues to amaze and astound the crowds by pumping in unbelievable amounts of fiat liquidity. So when is the crowd going to see the strings and mirrors and determine they market is a grand rigged illusion? Oh ye of little faith, bow down and pray to ye money gawds?

And on that note I will leave you with some Confucius wisdom:

The story begins in the usual manner, with the king asking his faithful minister, Gun, to save the country from the rising waters. Unfortunately, Gun thinks he can control nature. For nine years he labors, building dam after dam to stem the raging tide. As each dam falls apart, the waters rage ever stronger. Eventually, the king wises up, banishes Gun, and orders Gun's son, Yu, to have a go. A humble man, Yu quietly studies the problem and concludes that attempting to constrain nature is futile. Rather than build dams, he gently channels the flood waters into an irrigation system. The crops bloom, the waters recede, the people are saved and Yu is anointed king.

Americans have failed to know Yu's story, for we insist on defying nature. We build homes on unstable hillsides, on sea coasts they are prone to hurricane damage, on flood plains that fill, and in forests prone to fire. We rely on technology and the government to protect us, but sometimes nature outwits the best human efforts to contain it.

[edit on 7-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

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