posted on Aug, 28 2005 @ 09:49 PM
I'm curious about something. The last election came down to who would get more people to vote AGAINST them basically- nobody has ever disagreed with
me on that point.
So now that there's no Bush to vote against, what will happen to voter turnout? Will either side be able to present a forward looking agenda to
excite voters? Will the obligatory opposition party vehemence of the Democrats scare Republican voters into turning out to vote against them, while
Democrat turnout slacks due to Bush's absence? Will the Republicans consider this a race they are destined to lose and put most of the parties money
into defending the Senate, thus handing the Democrats an easy win?
I think it comes down to which issues the candidates choose.
A darkhorse Republican who comes out strong on immigration and energy policy could really get people to the polls I think, but they'd have to do a
great job of ensuring an end to the war, whether or not they meant to deliver on that promise.
I suspect the democrats will throw up one of their more prominent members who hasn't got too many nasty soundbytes of recent vintage. I sort of
suspect that John McCain may defect and be taken on as a VP by Hillary- that's her only shot in hell at winning, and it's the only reason I can
concieve of for McCain's self-destructive snubbing of his party, which is only ensuring him zero chance at a nomination.
I suspect they'll play heavy on the war on terror, and believe it or not I think that's a mistake. That case is made. It's old. People already know
it. I think the number one obstacle for the democrats is proving that they have a winning domestic agenda. They could counter a Republican play on
nativism by pressing education to ensure that Americans get high paying jobs and that we don't have to import doctors and nurses from India, so I
think college funding is a big winning issue for them. They could also do a lot to excite their base by pushing reform of election laws (afterall John
Q. Public was educated in public school and has no idea that the president has no say over how states handle their election laws).
But what do you people think? Who is going to show up and who won't, and what issues will they show up to support?
(One side prediction from The Vagabond: there will be a rather impressive turnout from an often overlooked demographic- THE DEAD. I did some calling
for the Scott Matheson campaign back in 2004, calling registered republicans to take a poll on how they would vote in the Utah governor's race. About
1% of the names on my rolls had birthdates in the 1900-1910 range- and all of the phone numbers were bogus.)