Doomsday for New Orleans as a city?

I wanted to start this thread to provide an area to discuss members predictions and forecasts for Katrina and to answer a few general questions.

Is this the last hurrah of New Orleans? Are we about to see an American city plunged into the tank? How many people are estimated to be killed? How much damage and cost will this storm be?

I think we are seeing the last night of New Orleans as it currently stands. This is the nightmare of all nightmares for hurricane forecasting in the U.S. The Soup Bowl will overflow and unfortunately may kill several thousand people. I hope the Super Dome holds.

Cost of Katrina: 130 billion dollars

I have to agree....I said yesterday when it was still a cat 2, that I think this will be the biggest hurricane in my life time as far as damage is concerned.

Alot of people think it will be rebuilt, but after reading Noaa's article the Big One. I think New Orleans will be the new Atlantis after this.

As a native of New Orleans, this storm was going to happen "one day". We've all lived in fear of it but what can you do? New Orleans is a bowl and when it was settled, it was a bad choice for a location. We do have one of the best drainage systems in the world but this won't help much. I'm very scared and outside where I am, it is very quiet. All this media coverage does not help.

Say a prayer.

Lily

Lady Lily, you have my deepest prayers and thoughts tonight and tommorow and for as long as it takes to overcome this once in a lifetime event.

Thanks. We need them.

LadyLily I hope you have prepared a safe room and have also considered all your escape routes and how to get out of rising flood waters. I also hope you are prepared and remember not to open window, not even a crack during the storm, also stay inside until the all clear is given. I can't stand to hear of any more tree related deaths.

and of course you, mizar and everyone else in the path of Katrina has my prayers.

[edit on 8-28-2005 by worldwatcher]

please tell you are not still there lily?
I'll be worried sick til i hear you are okay

God Bless!

Thanks for the advise. There is a shelter not to far from us if it gets bad but I have four dogs and I cannot leave them. I'm in a realtively (sp?) "safe" area.

I'm going to try and get some sleep. Hopefully, I will be able to check in tomorrow.

Lily

Lady Lily,

Have you evacuated the area?

Folks, is there still enough time to get out?

Please, please, get somewhere safe if evacuation is not an option. If evacuation is still a workable option, then it would be wise to get out!

Troy

Yeah I think our fair city will see another day.

BUt I have a bad feelign about the dome. NEver knew LAdy lilly live in New Orleans too.

Howdy fellow New Orleaniean riding out the storm!

I gues we are in teh same boat... ( no pun intented)

I was just thinking that this topic needs to be discussed. They are calling this storm Killer Katrina and I think that it will be the single worse Disaster in American History.

I'll Explain...

1. This is a Cat. 5 Huricane with wind gusts over 200 mph and a Storm Surge bringing a sustained wall of water 20-25 feet high.

2. New Orleans is shaped like a Bowl and the entire city is under sea level. The only thing keeping New Orleans from being under water right now is #1. It has a strong seawall and 2. It has a levy system that pumps overflow out of the city. Without this modern technology New Orleans would be underwater already. New Orleans already knows that these 2 systems will fail when this storm comes to shore.

3. The News said that 1 in 6 people in NO do not own a vehicle and many people that do, aren't leaving. The news showed people having Huricane Parties in the French Quarter. Others without escape are forced to choose between going to the SuperDome or getting a hotel room. Either choice is a risk as the experts expect a 20 foot wall of water to overtake the entire city making it into a lake. Everything made out of Wood will be destroyed and anyone caught on the first or second level of a house or building will be dead in the morning. Many people are not listening to the warnings of the local officials.

The storm is expected to make landfall and sit...thats right, SIT THERE for hours!

The loss of life will be catastrophic!

Casulty count: 10,000 dead or missing
UNLESS, the Superdome is extected to hold over 50,000 people. It claims to be capable of withstanding huricane force winds...but it has never been tested on a Cat. 5 Huricane before. If that roof can only withstand 130 mph and Katrina brings 200mph... well then this would be a storm would be the Worst Storm of the Common Era.

Its in God's hands now.


If the SuperDome doessn't hold up and 50,000 people are instantly killed then i would call this event the RAPTURE.

Originally posted by Where2Hide2006
If the SuperDome doessn't hold up and 50,000 people are instantly killed then i would call this event the RAPTURE.

Good post, but
I don't get the rapture part.

I agree with pretty much your assessment of the situation though I do not believe that wind gusts will reach 200mph or atleast sustain that type of force. However the CAT4/5 winds that are definetly going to make landfall are more than enough that was previously required (CAT 3) to sink all of NO.

Once again I send out my prayers and hopes to Mizar, L. Lady, and others who are battling this one. I hope I don't wake up tommorow and find out that we have lost a great American city.

From the moment I heard about the Super Dome, I've been having a bad feeling ever since then about the safety of that building and the people in it. Hopefully it holds and I think there is about 12,000-20,000 people in there and they are expecting the field level to be flooded heavily. God Almighty...

If NO becomes a sesspool of toxic, chemical and other debris, I think they need to evacuate EVERYONE that is left in order to properly cleanup the city and begin to rebuild.

I found a great article from 2004 that discusses the possibilty of a strong hurricane destroying NO.

link

"A direct hit by a very powerful hurricane could swamp its levees and leave as much as 20 feet of chemical-laden, snake-infested water trapped in the man-made bowl."

""The Red Cross has estimated 25,000 to 100,000 would drown, and I don't think that is unrealistic," said Ivor van Heerden, director of Louisiana State University's Center for the Study of Public Health Impacts of Hurricanes. "

"There are national implications, too, if New Orleans is hammered. About one-fourth of the nation's oil and natural-gas production is here, as is one-third of its seafood catch. Thousands of miles of oil and gas pipelines snake through the bayous and marshes. The region is home to the nation's largest port complex, moving 16 percent of its cargo."

I already heard that gas is about to strike past 3 dollars a gallon partially in part because of Katrina. Read this article

today.reuters.com...

" SINGAPORE, Aug 29 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures surged more than $4 in opening trade on Monday, hitting a new record high above $70 a barrel after Hurricane Katrina forced Gulf of Mexico producers to shut in more than a third of their output."

(edit to shorten long link)

[edit on 29-8-2005 by pantha]

I would like to post a correction to a previous post of mine. The number of people in the SuperDome is 35,000 according to the live feed I am watching of the hurricane at

www.wwltv.com...

geez, Where2Hide2006, if that roof goes... God help those people

If things continue this bad the French Quarter will be destroyed beyong recognition. If the levy breaks and flooding gets really bad the Superdome will be a mass graveyard. I hate to sound this way but its all to possible.

Worst Case Scenario:

Most of the people in the dome die. The Enitre new orleans area is completly destroyed. Lousianna will never recover from having such a big tourist distination destroyed.

Estimated death toll: 31K


Most likely to happen Prediction:

Less then 34 people dead, french quarter gone and downtown NewOrleans will no longer exist.

To bad!! I wanted to make it to mardi gras next year .



[edit on 8/29/2005 by AndrewTB]

It seems thst new orleans is going to take a big hit. i hope that fatalities are low. but if the city is damaged why rebuild in the same area? If this is the first of many weather changes and the new area for these storms is the new orleans area. I have heard that the cemetarys are not dug deep and they have alot of above ground cemetarys and if it floods all kinds of dead bodies floating in the water and how about the diesease

wow??~! Did lady lily wake up from her nap yet? I feel really sorry for the people of NO now. They need prayers now more than ever, they are stuck there and can not get out... I can't imagine a much worst situation in NO.

Even now, two days after the hit, New Orleans is mostly underwater (with about 80% of the city flooded, and as deep as 20' in some areas). And, the water is RISING...as efforts to fix the levees have failed, and pumping stations can't handle the flow. The nightmare scenario is coming to pass.

Rescuers are pushing through floating dead bodies to reach survivors (currently stated death tolls are just confirmed bodies, there will be MUCH MUCH more), and many are still trapped on rooftops and in attics.

Swamp critters are now in downtown NO, and rioting/looting are going to continue to be a problem today. The shelter of last resort, the SuperDome, is even being evacuated by boat, helicopter, and when possible Nat. Guard vehicles.

Even the mayor is conceding that the city is basically lost. Even IF the idea is to rebuild, it will take a LONG time to get the water out, the place cleaned up, and then new construction, and all with no guarantees this won't happen again. I'd hate to see those new insurance rates!

Then we've got the impact on ALL of us in the US. Higher gas prices. If you didn't know already, NO is one of our major import ports, and refining areas. I'd fully expect $3 a gallon for gas by the holiday weekend, as the norm.

Here is an article from the Globe and Mail, which is a Canadian news paper that covered the whole event. Nothing less then disturbing.

New Orleans must be abandoned, governor says

New Orleans is an example of "where not to build a city", in a bowl shaped valley, below sea level, near the Gulf of Mexico, and near a swampy area. I don't think the the original city planners saw this coming, but the new ones should have invested in beefing up the flood protection systems.

The engineers involved in the repair of the levys have to plug a 150m hole. They are thowing sandbags and everything they have into it, but they say, it like throwing them into a black-hole. They want to crash a barge into the levy to plug it.

At the moment if nothing drastic is done, we will be looking at Lake New Orleans by the end of the month. If the city is a total loss and a danger to live in, they should relocate the city to higher ground.

On a lighter note because this event is dark, I wonder what they will name that city, New New Orleans?




[edit on 8/31/2005 by GoldEagle]

We survived Katrina I'm in Brandon,Ms and things could be worse. Just east of me no gas, water, electricity, ice or any phone service. My power was restored last night, and prolly only because i'm close to a major hospital.
The news channels are not showing the devastation that is so widespread with bodies floating down streets and things that are not appropriate. If anyone is trying to find out about family members please feel free to contact me. We have people searching the smaller cities and towns.
God Speed to all of Katrinas victims.