The issue is that Saudi Arabia won't let anyone quantify their known oil reserves. That is why people are skeptical, I certainly am.
Now, if Saudi Arabia did let us check out their reserves, one of two things would happen:
- They could be telling the truth, in which case there is no issue for the moment.
- They could be lieing, in which case everyone poos their pants.
The current high oil certainly has nothing to do with Saudi oil reserves. They have been claiming the oil reserves they have for a long time and the
recent doubling in oil prices was based on everything but worries about Saudi reserves. The evidence points in the exact opposite direction when it
comes to oil reserve manipulation
as this prominent analyst points out.
More claims made by VERY prominent Saudi officials
saying that "we are not running out of oil."
If their claims are true... what's the incentive for not allowing anyone to quantify their rerserves? None as far as I can see. Like has been
said before, they can easily cap wells to make more money if they feel the need to - it's not illegal. Saudi Arabia will be rolling in it if this is
They have nothing to gain by showing people they have say ten times as much oil as they do since the current high oil price is not based on market
fundamentals. The market is reacting to nothing but fears based on possible supply interruptions and oil running out wich are fueled by constant talk
of terrorism and Unilateral US actions in the world in the last few years. The Hubbert model
patently false and the original proponent never meant for it to be used as oil company spokesmen have been using it for the last few decades. It has
been proven to be patently useless in projecting future oil supplies and reserves and it serves no other purpose than causing market speculation based
If their claims are false, I don't need to outline the incentives to disallowing any quantification of their oil reserves...
Many geologists and economists think there is an issue with Saudi Oil reserves - Simmon's being one of them - there is something 'going
Simmon's makes many claims wich Michael Lynch proves to be based ,at best, on pure speculation. Read
for why we should not trust Simmons when he claims a reasonable price for oil
is actually 180 odd USD a barrel.
Besides, even if they do have uber reserves, we - the world - are still consuming incredible amounts of oil that the producers can barely
sustain supply for. All we need is another civil war / hurricane / generic disaster to create horrendus supply problems.
There simply is no evidence
that the world is in fact
running out of oil. There is plenty of evidence of oil price
Katrina has shown how fragile out petro-economy is, irrespective of peak-oil!
It has shown that the US government can stage an exersize of what they might need to do in case of flooding one year before such flood happens and
then still fail to stop the flooding.
www.eia.doe.gov... - this link explains the issue in numbers.
It simply shows that there is enough oil on the market on a day to day basis to supply all oil needs. Remember daily numbers is based on what
countries would ideally buy and NOT what they can afford to buy at the current high prices.... Considering the high fuel prices is it not surprising
that the US has managed to put 150 million barrels of oil into it's strategic reserve over the last 3 1/2 years? Some analyst suggest that this alone
has raised prices at us pumps by 28 cents per gallon.
Even if the Saudi's and / or other countries do increase their supply by x million(s) of barrels a day, it just drains the reserves even more
rapidly, hence when they reach the half way point and production declines - Hubbert's peak style - we're screwed.
You need to go research how reserves ( and certainly Saudi reserves) really work. According to conventional logic Saudi Arabia should have depleted
many fields they have by now but most of their oil still come from the same fields it came from 30 years ago. The fields is not 'depleting' as they
should it would seem and many fields all over the world does much the same.
it's No Crude Joke: This Oil Field Grows Even as It's Tapped --- Odd Reservoir Off Louisiana Prods Petroleum Experts To Seek a Deeper
Full article below.
Odd Reservoir Off Louisiana Prods
Oil Experts to Seek a Deeper Meaning
By CHRISTOPHER COOPER
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
HOUSTON -- Something mysterious is going on at Eugene Island 330.
Production at the oil field, deep in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Louisiana, was supposed to have declined years ago. And for a while, it
behaved like any normal field: Following its 1973 discovery, Eugene Island 330's output peaked at about 15,000 barrels a day. By 1989, production had
slowed to about 4,000 barrels a day.
Then suddenly -- some say almost inexplicably -- Eugene Island's fortunes reversed. The field, operated by PennzEnergy Co., is now producing 13,000
barrels a day, and probable reserves have rocketed to more than 400 million barrels from 60 million. Stranger still, scientists studying the field say
the crude coming out of the pipe is of a geological age quite different from the oil that gushed 10 years ago.
Fill 'er Up
All of which has led some scientists to a radical theory: Eugene Island is rapidly refilling itself, perhaps from some continuous source miles below
the Earth's surface. That, they say, raises the tantalizing possibility that oil may not be the limited resource it is assumed to be.
"It kind of blew me away," says Jean Whelan, a geochemist and senior researcher from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts.
Connected to Woods Hole since 1973, Dr. Whelan says she considered herself a traditional thinker until she encountered the phenomenon in the Gulf of
Mexico. Now, she says, "I believe there is a huge system of oil just migrating" deep underground.
Conventional wisdom says the world's supply of oil is finite, and that it was deposited in horizontal reservoirs near the surface in a process that
took millions of years. Since the economies of entire countries ride on the fundamental notion that oil reserves are exhaustible, any contrary
evidence "would change the way people see the game, turn the world view upside down," says Daniel Yergin, a petroleum futurist and industry
consultant in Cambridge, Mass. "Oil and renewable resource are not words that often appear in the same sentence."
Doomsayers to the contrary, the world contains far more recoverable oil than was believed even 20 years ago. Between 1976 and 1996, estimated global
oil reserves grew 72%, to 1.04 trillion barrels. Much of that growth came in the past 10 years, with the introduction of computers to the oil patch,
which made drilling for oil more predictable.
Still, most geologists are hard-pressed to explain why the world's greatest oil pool, the Middle East, has more than doubled its reserves in the past
20 years, despite half a century of intense exploitation and relatively few new discoveries. It would take a pretty big pile of dead dinosaurs and
prehistoric plants to account for the estimated 660 billion barrels of oil in the region, notes Norman Hyne, a professor at the University of Tulsa in
Oklahoma. "Off-the-wall theories often turn out to be right," he says.
Even some of the most staid U.S. oil companies find the Eugene Island discoveries intriguing. "These reservoirs are refilling with oil,"
acknowledges David Sibley, a Chevron Corp. geologist who has monitored the work at Eugene Island.
Mr. Sibley cautions, however, that much research remains to be done on the source of that oil. "At this point, it's not black and white. It's
gray," he says.
Although the world has been drilling for oil for generations, little is known about the nature of the resource or the underground activities that led
to its creation. And because even conservative estimates say known oil reserves will last 40 years or more, most big oil companies haven't concerned
themselves much with hunting for deep sources like the reservoirs scientists believe may exist under Eugene Island.
Economics never hindered the theorists, however. One, Thomas Gold, a respected astronomer and professor emeritus at Cornell University in Ithaca,
N.Y., has held for years that oil is actually a renewable, primordial syrup continually manufactured by the Earth under ultrahot conditions and
tremendous pressures. As this substance migrates toward the surface, it is attacked by bacteria, making it appear to have an organic origin dating
back to the dinosaurs, he says.
While many scientists discount Prof. Gold's theory as unproved, "it made a believer out of me," says Robert Hefner, chairman of Seven Seas
Petroleum Inc., a Houston firm that specializes in ultradeep drilling and has worked with the professor on his experiments. Seven Seas continues to
use "conventional" methods in seeking reserves, though the halls of the company often ring with dissent. "My boss and I yell at each other all the
time about these theories," says Russ Cunningham, a geologist and exploration manager for Seven Seas who isn't sold on Prof. Gold's ideas.
Knowing that clever theories don't fill the gas tank, Roger Anderson, an oceanographer and executive director of Columbia University's Energy
Research Center in New York, proposed studying the behavior of oil in a reservoir in hopes of finding a new way to help companies vacuum up what their
drilling was leaving behind.
He focused on Eugene Island, a kidney-shaped subsurface mountain that slopes steeply into the Gulf depths. About 80 miles off the Louisiana coast, the
underwater landscape surrounding Eugene Island is otherworldly, cut with deep fissures and faults that spontaneously belch gas and oil. In 1985, as he
stood on the deck of a shrimp boat towing an oil-sniffing contraption through the area, Dr. Anderson pondered Eugene Island's strange history.
"Migrating oil and anomalous production. I sort of linked the two ideas together," he says.
Five years later, the U.S. Department of Energy ponied up $10 million to investigate the Eugene Island geologic formation, and especially the oddly
behaving field at its crest. A consortium of companies leasing chunks of the formation, including such giants as Chevron, Exxon Corp. and Texaco
Corp., matched the federal grant.
Time and Space
The Eugene Island researchers began their investigation about the same time that 3-D seismic technology was introduced to the oil business, allowing
geologists to see promising reservoirs as a cavern in the ground rather than as a line on a piece of paper.
Taking the technology one step further, Dr. Anderson used a powerful computer to stack 3-D images of Eugene Island on top of one another. That
resulted in a 4-D image, showing not only the reservoir in three spatial dimensions, but showing also the movement of its contents over time as
PennzEnergy siphoned out oil.
What Dr. Anderson noticed as he played his time-lapse model was how much oil PennzEnergy had missed over the years. The remaining crude, surrounded by
water and wobbling like giant globs of Jell-O in the computer model, gave PennzEnergy new targets as it reworked Eugene Island.
What captivated scientists, though, was a deep fault in the bottom corner of the computer scan that was gushing oil like a garden hose. "We could see
the stream," Dr. Anderson says. "It wasn't even debated that it was happening."
Woods Hole's Dr. Whelan, invited by Dr. Anderson to join the Eugene Island investigation, postulated that superheated methane gas -- a compound that
is able to absorb vast amounts of oil -- was carrying crude from a deep source below. The age of the crude pushed through the stream, and its hotter
temperature helped support that theory. The scientists decided to drill into the fault.
As prospectors, the scientists were fairly lucky. As researchers they weren't. The first well they drilled hit natural gas, a pocket so pressurized
"that it scared us," Dr. Anderson says; that well is still producing. The second stab, however, collapsed the fault. "Some oil flowed. I have 15
gallons of it in my closet," Dr. Anderson says. But it wasn't successful enough to advance Dr. Whelan's theory.
A third well was drilled at a spot on an adjacent lease, where the fault disappeared from seismic view. The researchers missed the stream but hit a
fair-size reservoir, one that is still producing.
It was here, in 1995, that the scientists ran out of grant money and PennzEnergy lost interest in continuing. "I'm not discounting the possibility
that there is oil moving into these reservoirs," says William Van Wie, a PennzEnergy senior vice president. "I question only the rate."
Dr. Whelan hasn't lost interest, however, and is seeking to investigate further the mysterious vents and seeps. While industry geologists have
generally assumed such eruptions are merely cracks in a shallow oil reservoir, they aren't sure. Noting that many of the seeps are occurring in deep
water, rather than in the relative shallows of the continental shelf, Dr. Whelan wonders if they may link a deeper source.
This summer, a tiny submarine chartered by a Louisiana State University researcher will attempt to install a series of measuring devices on vents near
the Eugene Island property. Dr. Whelan hopes this will give her some idea of how quickly Eugene Island is refilling. "We need to know if we're
talking years or if we're talking hundreds of thousands of years," she says.
[edit on 16-9-2005 by StellarX]