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Project Storm Scenario

1) FIRST TO GO
Unprotected areas in Plaquemines Parish could flood first Monday.

2) THE BETSY SCENARIO
Hurricane force winds are projected to top levees in eastern New Orleans, pushing water into the 9th Ward, the Michoud area and even into Mid-City.

3) SLIDELL SOAKED
Large parts of Slidell could be inundated by 10-11 foot storm surges.

4) PUMPED-UP LAKE
Easterly winds in advance of the storm could pump water from Lake Borgne and from Breton and Chandeleur sounds into Lake Pontchartrain, raising the lake’s surface by 12 feet.

5) OVER THE TOP
Waves equal to half the surge height or more would top the surge water and could overtop levees on the south shore of Lake Pontchartrain and around Chalmette.

6) GOING ASHORE
As Katrina moves inland and the winds come from the north, the high Lake Pontchartrain waters could stream across St. Charles Parish and turn east along Airline Highway into Kenner.



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NHC Public Advisory #20
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 145
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH
OF KATRINA. THE HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.