Hurricane Katrina, page 5
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reply posted on 27-8-2005 @ 03:18 PM by Imperium Americana
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005


HURRICANE ADV. 4 17A DISCUSSION
KATRINA SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLOWLY FOR THE FIRST 12 HR OR SO AS THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL COMPLETES AND SOME RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTS THE STORM. AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM WATER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH 125 KT IN 48 HR AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 120 KT GFDL...THE 126 KT GFDN...THE 127 KT SHIPS...AND THE 132 KT FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT KATRINA COULD REACH CATEGORY 5 STATUS AT SOME POINT BEFORE LANDFALL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD AFFECT KATRINA STARTING AT 48 HR...AND AS ALWAYS HAPPENS IN HURRICANE OF THIS INTENSITY ADDITIONAL CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR.




Well the eye pressure has come up a bit. That is to be expected, though. The storm is in the process of an eye replacement. I think the latest track is off. The Northern portion of the storm (the strongest portion) has shifted rapidly to the east. My guess is that the storm lost her eye running right into that low we were expecting last night. I figured the turn would be more gradual than what I am seeing now. Closer into shore this storm gets, the warmer the water is.

News like that would be good for Mizar and friends. The "Worst Case" for NO is not a direct hit, but a eye path just west of the city. Storms have a counter-clockwise direction. A western pass would shove the largest portion of the storm surge directly in to NO.

SAT-IR Loop

At the top of the radar frame there is a check box: LatLon (5deg). If you add in the lines you really can see the hurricane slam into the NE flowing air mass.

I agree with Dangermouse, here Mizar. Anyone who lives in, or near, to the projected path is in danger. Katrina was weak when she hit S. Fla….She is not now.


reply posted on 27-8-2005 @ 03:35 PM by worldwatcher
No probs Indy, the storm itself wasn't so bad, it the loss of power that makes it so difficult and then after the storm passes, the waiting for FPL is almost torture. I tried to kill the time by playing board games with the family, but we were all snappy with each other, cold showers kept us sane.

My advice to anyone in the path of this storm who is not evacuating...
I hope you are shuttering up and following all the usual hurricane advice, but these imo are the most important once the bigger preps have been done.

1) Set your fridge and freezer to the coldest setting NOW
2) Stock up on Ice, fill all the empty space in the freezer with bags of Ice
Fill your coolers with ice too.
3) Have lots and lots of batteries, all sizes

*If you can find those little battery operated fans, get a few, the water bottle fan (type you get at amusement parks) works great to keep you cool once the power is out.

*If you have kids, please please don't get mad at them when they start nag and whine...be prepared have an assortment of games, coloring books, toys (new things help too, makes a happy surprise) stock up from the dollar store and when a whine comes on, shut them up with something to do)
*Also make sure each child has his own flashlight, tap light, etc.

*And don't be fools when the storm has a lull and go outside to explore you nieghborhood until the all clear is given. Learn from the deaths of already attributed to Katrina and stay the hell away from big trees.

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