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SCI/TECH: Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer within 100 years

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posted on Aug, 23 2005 @ 04:01 PM
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University of Arizona geoscientist Jonathan T. Overpeck is the lead author of a new report published in the Aug. 23 Eos, the weekly newspaper of the American Geophysical Union. According to this report current warming trends in the Arctic may create an "ice-free state" not seen in the last one million years, and this melting trend is increasing.

 



www.eurekalert.org
The past climates in the Arctic include glacial periods, where sea ice coverage expanded and ice sheets extended into Northern America and Europe, and warmer interglacial periods during which the ice retreats, as it has during the past 10,000 years.
By studying natural data loggers such as ice cores and marine sediments, scientists have a good idea what the "natural envelope" for Arctic climate variations has been for the past million years, Overpeck said.
The team of scientists synthesized what is currently known about the Arctic and defined key components that make up the current system. The scientists identified how the components interact, including feedback loops that involve multiple parts of the system.
"In the past, researchers have tended to look at individual components of the Arctic," said Overpeck. "What we did for the first time is really look at how all of those components work together."
The team concluded that there were two major amplifying feedbacks in the Arctic system involving the interplay between sea and land ice, ocean circulation in the North Atlantic, and the amounts of precipitation and evaporation in the system.
Such feedback loops accelerate changes in the system, Overpeck said. For example, the white surface of sea ice reflects radiation from the sun. However, as sea ice melts, more solar radiation is absorbed by the dark ocean, which heats up and results in yet more sea ice melting.
While the scientists identified one feedback loop that could slow the changes, they did not see any natural mechanism that could stop the dramatic loss of ice.



Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


"They did not see any natural mechanism that could stop the dramatic loss of ice"! Researchers are concerned that substantial melting of Arctic glaciers and ice sheets will raise sea level worldwide, flooding the heavily populated coastal areas. Even the "permanent" ice in the Arctic ground is beginning to melt, researchers see this trend increasing. If true the melting of this permafrost will lead to an increase in the release of greenhouse gasses compounding what man has/is releasing. How much more damage can the Earth sustain before it's too late to do anything. If the Earth has no natural mechanism to reverse this trend, then we are indeed in dire straits.


Related News Links:
www.ispe.arizona.edu
www.arcus.org
www.wcmc.org.uk
72.14.207.104




posted on Aug, 23 2005 @ 04:07 PM
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here too:

www.livescience.com...

this is crazy news...





posted on Aug, 23 2005 @ 04:11 PM
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It seems ATS eyes are turning to the Arctic...and it's a good thing too.
There has been a trend over the past decade or so, of little stories surfacing, especially in Canadian media.

Stories like the spotting of robins in northern regions where they have never been seen before.

Or the fact that summer temperatures around James Bay have hit 40 celsius this year was an eye opener too.

But there are far worse things happening too... polar bears are starving because of the lack of sea ice and harp seals.

I have relatives and friends in Yellowknife who tell me about how warm it is now...and these are not old timers...these people are fairly new to the area, having lived there for only about 30 years.

good post...



posted on Aug, 23 2005 @ 04:18 PM
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masqua,

The two stories on ATS right now are related to each other. The melting ice is the big reason behind the escalation of the Canadian and Danish dispute.

Canada Sends Navy To Arctic North

This is going to become a huge problem for Canada unless we buy more boats and station some soldiers in the North. The US, Russia and Norway are sniffing around the area as well.



posted on Aug, 23 2005 @ 04:27 PM
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So, would that possibly mean the Planet Earth turns upside-down then or sooner or not at all?

I have read a few scary things on Earth shifting around its core based on a change of balance between the North and Sout Poles.

Dallas



posted on Aug, 23 2005 @ 05:26 PM
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So, would that possibly mean the Planet Earth turns upside-down then or sooner or not at all?

I have read a few scary things on Earth shifting around its core based on a change of balance between the North and Sout Poles.

Dallas



Never heard that one before Dallas, did a quick search and found this at the Space.com forum board by poster Grasmere:


Now I speculate that increased earthquake activity from global warming, might be due to the shifting, surface weight-bearing load on the tectonic plates. As the polar ice caps thaw and melt, the weight payload upon the earth's surface will naturally re-distribute the stress patterns, firstly along the present fault lines, and as these start failing, new ones will appear, probably braching tangentially off the old fault lines like cracks in glass.

The earth's shape has apparently changed slightly, due to polar ice melt and the earth's rotation, and the magnetic field has also changed its position. The sun seems to set in a more north-westerly direction, and some of the constellations seem to have shifted slightly (not due to precession).


Is that what you were getting at Dallas, as i said it's news to me.



posted on Aug, 23 2005 @ 05:32 PM
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For the basic part of what my low knowledge on the subject is - yes.
Things I have read in Newspapers and on Scientific programs. I'm no master on it (subject) but anything that sends this ball upside down I pay attention to.

Dallas



posted on Aug, 24 2005 @ 02:28 AM
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Are we talking about the Earth Crust Displacement theory? Although this is related to increased snow and ice at the poles. Since the earths crust is essentially floating on magma the theory goes that increased weight at the flattened ploes causes an imbalance and the whole crust rotates, very quickly.....very very very quckly. So quick that mammoths chomping on fresh buttercups are suddenly frozen as their part of the earth rotates to the pole. Why antartica was free of ice (when man was around hence the maps) and is now frozen solid. It also explains sudden flooding worldwide and hence worldwide flood myths. It wasn't just Noah who had to build a boat !

I found the theory interesting especially when you get hold of a globe, mark the area of the last age and assume the centre of the ice covered area "should" be at the pole. Try it, its very intersting to note where siberia (with mammoths) and Antartica were if the pole was shifted.



posted on Aug, 24 2005 @ 02:44 AM
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"And those places that are warm will become cold,and cold places will become warm."

I lived in the Arctic. Its still freezing in the winter
Believe me.

This week they are getting(forecasting) temperatures of 8-14 degrees celsius, in Inuvik, which is 70 miles south of the Arctic Ocean.

During my stay, my town was on occasion the 'hottest place in Canada' (the 24 hour sunlight didn't hurt), and we didn't complain too much. Although I do think there is a good chance of drastic Earth changes occurring in the next century,
I wouldn't say its all due to pollution thanks to man.

Maybe we're due?



posted on Aug, 24 2005 @ 03:30 AM
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I posted this yesterday: Sea Ice May Be On Increase In The Antarctic
www.abovetopsecret.com...

A new NASA-funded study finds that predicted increases in precipitation due to warmer air temperatures from greenhouse gas emissions may actually increase sea ice volume in the Antarctic’s Southern Ocean. This adds new evidence of potential asymmetry between the two poles, and may be an indication that climate change processes may have different impact on different areas of the globe.

"Most people have heard of climate change and how rising air temperatures are melting glaciers and sea ice in the Arctic," said Dylan C. Powell, co-author of the paper and a doctoral candidate at the University of Maryland-Baltimore County. "However, findings from our simulations suggest a counterintuitive phenomenon. Some of the melt in the Arctic may be offset by increases in sea ice volume in the Antarctic.


So it's melting in the arctic, while the antarctic is getting bigger...


Global warming is a hoax, its not (only) due to CO2 emissions.

In the 70's it was global cooling, a decade ago sour/acid rain was the word of the day, and now its global warming...

It's just a cycle: www.iceagenow.com...



posted on Aug, 24 2005 @ 06:46 AM
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Regardless of whether it is human or cyclic, the facts remain...

dsc.discovery.com...

I call this just one of the many 'little stories' I hear about the incredible changes happening in the North.

I wonder how the balance stacks up when considering the buildup of ice in the Antarctic and the diminishment in the Arctic.

Also, about the crustal displacement...there is also the theory of Polar Flip, where the heaviest portion of the crust winds up on the equator, much like a spinning top coming to imbalance.

[edit on 24-8-2005 by masqua]



posted on Aug, 24 2005 @ 07:31 AM
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Originally posted by Zion Mainframe
In the 70's it was global cooling, a decade ago sour/acid rain was the word of the day, and now its global warming...

That doesn't mean it is contradictory, a decade ago sour rain was a problem and there is some evidence suggesting that if it weren't for human emissions, we would have been heading for a new ice age or at least some global cooling.



posted on Aug, 24 2005 @ 08:25 AM
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Originally posted by Dallas

So, would that possibly mean the Planet Earth turns upside-down then or sooner or not at all?

I have read a few scary things on Earth shifting around its core based on a change of balance between the North and Sout Poles.

Dallas


The earth isn't going to flip. There isn't gravity pulling down on the earth where the weight of ice at the top would make it rotate to the bottom. And top versus bottom is only relative to us. There isn't a top and bottom direction in the universe. Depending where you are coming from we could be at the bottom already. This concept is just a human thing.


Originally posted by Rren
How much more damage can the Earth sustain before it's too late to do anything. If the Earth has no natural mechanism to reverse this trend, then we are indeed in dire straits.


Damage? Ok lets rewind here. The dinosaurs existed and THRIVED in an ice free environment. During the Younger Dryas the global temperatures were some 10 degrees C cooler than now. Sea levels were some 100+ feet lower than now. The ice sheets were significantly larger than now. The retreat didn't start 100 years ago. No. It started nearly 10,000 years ago. Than means PRIOR to the industrial revolution the sea levels rose over 100 feet. It means the global temperatures increased by some 10 degrees celcius. It means that most of the land based ice melted. Guess what? Man, like the dinosaurs THRIVED. Warmer is good. Warmer means longer growing seasons. Warmer means grain belts that are further north. Warmer means being able to feed the population. Warmer does NOT mean damage. Was warmer damage then the dinosaurs roamed the earth? It didn't seem to bother them much. The climate changes with or without us. We simply have to change along with it.



posted on Aug, 24 2005 @ 08:27 AM
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Originally posted by Zion Mainframe
Global warming is a hoax, its not (only) due to CO2 emissions.

It's just a cycle: www.iceagenow.com...


You just contradicted yourself. You state the earth is not warming, then you claim it is, only not by CO2 (in the same sentence). I don't understand your logic. Global Warming is VERY REAL. The debate is whether it's man-made or not. But the fact remains that it's one hell of a problem we need to deal with, IMHO.


Fallen One



posted on Aug, 24 2005 @ 08:33 AM
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The sad thing is without the ice polars bears will either cease to exist or will have to adapt somehow.

news.bbc.co.uk...
The polar bear could be driven to extinction by global warming within 100 years, warns an ecology expert.
The animal, which relies on sea ice to catch seals, is already starting to suffer the effects of climate changes in areas such as Hudson Bay in Canada.



posted on Aug, 24 2005 @ 08:42 AM
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Originally posted by Indy
Damage?

Look at US map indicating elevation above sealevel, increment sealevel, watch how many US cities are on or near the coast and start calculating how many trillions it would cost to move all that.



posted on Aug, 24 2005 @ 12:39 PM
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That is life Simon. That is what happens when you get arrogant and think you can build on the water like that. But I will give credit that people may not have known how much the levels changed and didn't know there was a great danger on building on the water like that.



posted on Aug, 24 2005 @ 12:42 PM
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Look at US map indicating elevation above sealevel, increment sealevel, watch how many US cities are on or near the coast and start calculating how many trillions it would cost to move all that.

I have some beach front property in Nevada I'll be willing to sell



posted on Aug, 24 2005 @ 04:10 PM
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I fully agree with Indy, man is way too arrogant to believe he can alter the course of the earth dramatically, possibly a little, butnot to great effect, IMO. Due to the rapidly increasing human population, we NEED the warmer temps to grow enough food to try and feed everybody. However, it hasn't been that hot here this summer, we broke a record with 115 degrees a couple days, but nothing like many years ago when we hit 122 degrees F. That sucked pretty bad, and the truck I had at the time didn't have any A/C.
As for the polar bears, if nature has selected them for extinction, nothing can be done. Species have become extinct for various reasons long before man was around or started to blame himself for everything, maybe it's in natures grand scheme for man to assist in the extinction of certain species anyway. Who knows.



posted on Aug, 24 2005 @ 04:21 PM
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Originally posted by 27jd
I fully agree with Indy, man is way too arrogant to believe he can alter the course of the earth dramatically, possibly a little, butnot to great effect, IMO. Due to the rapidly increasing human population, we NEED the warmer temps to grow enough food to try and feed everybody. However, it hasn't been that hot here this summer, we broke a record with 115 degrees a couple days, but nothing like many years ago when we hit 122 degrees F. That sucked pretty bad, and the truck I had at the time didn't have any A/C.
As for the polar bears, if nature has selected them for extinction, nothing can be done. Species have become extinct for various reasons long before man was around or started to blame himself for everything, maybe it's in natures grand scheme for man to assist in the extinction of certain species anyway. Who knows.


I can agree with what you said, obviously the Earth has gone through these cycles in the past and will continue to do so the future. We will certainly adapt, but at what cost. Are we speeding things up? Possibly making things more severe by adding all the man-made CO2 to the equation?

We're not just talking about the Arctic here


Disappearing Glaciers Ice is melting all over the planet. Glaciers are melting on six continents.

If present warming trends continue, all glaciers in Glacier National Park could be gone by 2030. [54] The park's Grinnell Glacier is already 90% gone. Pictured here is the glacier prior to its meltdown. [120]

Because of global warming, the glaciers of the Ruwenzori range in Uganda are in massive retreat.

The Bering Glacier, North America's largest glacier, has lost 7 miles of its length, while losing 20-25% of parts of the glacier.

Ice cores taken from the Dunde Ice Cap in the Qilian Mountains on the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau indicate that the years since 1938 have been the warmest in the last 12,000 years.

The melting is accelerating. The Lewis Glacier on Mt. Kenya (In Kenya) has lost 40% of its mass during the period 1963-1987 or at a much faster clip than during 1899-1963. [29]


I'm no alarmist whether naturally occuring, man-made or both, something is happening. Wouldn't you agree.




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