Climate change sceptics bet $10,000 on cooler world

Russian pair challenge UK expert over global warming

David Adam, science correspondent
Friday August 19, 2005
The Guardian

Two climate change sceptics, who believe the dangers of global warming are overstated, have put their money where their mouth is and bet $10,000 that the planet will cool over the next decade.

The Russian solar physicists Galina Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev have agreed the wager with a British climate expert, James Annan.

The pair, based in Irkutsk, at the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, believe that global temperatures are driven more by changes in the sun's activity than by the emission of greenhouse gases. They say the Earth warms and cools in response to changes in the number and size of sunspots. Most mainstream scientists dismiss the idea, but as the sun is expected to enter a less active phase over the next few decades the Russian duo are confident they will see a drop in global temperatures.

LINK



I found this one interesting, although these two scientists are not really 'respected?' by the rest of the community, they are sure betting a lot of money on a cooler world.

Surly even I can see that the Earth is warming, I am not convinced as to why. The leading candidate is that man has something to do with it, but that doesn't explain the last time they grew olives in Germany (~1400's). It could not have been man then.


Anyhow, why do you think these Russians are willing to bet so much money on this? Publicity? Hope? Or are they on to something?

I'm beginning more and more to believe that mankind isn't the biggest contributor to global warming.
Obviously Earth is warming up, obviously by cutting down rainforests and burning fossil fuel more CO2 is released into the atmosphere. BUT, we're nearing the end of the period between two ice ages, the next ice age is already overdue...

It’s a natural cycle!
… it’s a cycle … it’s a cycle … it’s a cycle

This states the next ice age is 15,000 years away, but they also state: "Most warmer periods between ice ages have lasted about 10,000 years." (the last ice age ended 11,000 yrs ago)


Global warming & global cooling are just natural cycles, we humans just have to live with it, but we cant, we think we should be in control...

[edit on 8-20-2005 by Zion Mainframe]

Good for these scientists. Nice to see someone put their money where their mouth is. They will either be broke or rich after this. Provided someone else takes them up on the bet.

The earths climate changes from time to time regardless of humans.
Even though I haven't looked into this subject that much, I simply don't buy the greenhouse gas theory hogwash, it's exaggerated, it sounds like a scam in my opinion. It truly is hard for me to imagine that we puny humans could affect nature in such a way.

www.heartland.org...
www.freerepublic.com...

Have you guys heard about the Heidelberg appeal? Th
It was formed in 1992 and signed by 4000 scientists and other intellectuals, of which 72 are nobel prize winners. While the petition on global warming was signed only by 2000 scientists and a few nobel prize winners.

www.sepp.org...

The Heidelberg Appeal

We want to make our full contribution to the preservation of our common heritage, the Earth.

We are, however, worried at the dawn of the twenty-first century, at the emergence of an irrational ideology which is opposed to
scientific and industrial progress and impedes economic and social development.

We contend that a Natural State, sometimes idealized by movements with a tendency to look toward the past, does not exist and
has probably never existed since man's first appearance in the biosphere, insofar as humanity has always progressed by
increasingly harnessing Nature to its needs and not the reverse. We full subscribe to the objectives of a scientific ecology for a
universe whose resources must be taken stock of, monitored and preserved.

But we herewith demand that this stock-taking, monitoring and preservation be founded on scientific criteria and not on
irrational preconceptions.

We stress that many essential human activities are carried out either by manipulating hazardous substances or in their proximity,
and that progress and development have always involved increasing control over hostile forces, to the benefit of mankind.

We therefore consider that scientific ecology is no more than extension of this continual progress toward the improved life of
future generations.

We intend to assert science's responsibility and duties toward society as a whole.

We do, however, forewarn the authorities in charge of our planet's destiny against decisions which are supported by
pseudoscientific arguments or false and nonrelevant data.

We draw everybody's attention to the absolute necessity of helping poor countries attain a level of sustainable development which
matches that of the rest of the planet, protecting them from troubles and dangers stemming from developed nations, and
avoiding their entanglement in a web of unrealistic obligations which would compromise both their independence and their
dignity.

The greatest evils which stalk our Earth are ignorance and oppression, and not Science, Technology, and Industry, whose
instruments, when adequately managed, are indispensable tools of a future shaped by Humanity, by itself and for itself,
overcoming major problems like overpopulation, starvation and worldwide diseases.

Interesting! I've never heard of that before.
Are they still actively doing research? I wasn't able to find much recent data of them, only articles about 1993 - 1997

www.stichting-han.nl...

Originally posted by edsinger
but as the sun is expected to enter a less active phase over the next few decades

Sunspot period is about 11 years long so I wonder where they have gotten that "decades".

Originally posted by SwearBear
Have you guys heard about the Heidelberg appeal? Th
It was formed in 1992 and signed by 4000 scientists and other intellectuals, of which 72 are nobel prize winners.

What are those Economists and Medicine Nobel winners doing there if that appeal is somehow supposed to be scientific keep it going and bury head deeper to sand message?
As of March 2005, a total of 770 Nobel Prizes have been given.
And I haven't noticed anyone of them being honoured from something even remotely associated with climate/weather. So in that respect those are just personal opinions. (after all hardly anyone would go to meet carpenter for getting help to pain)


For me that reason tells that you don't do something unless you know it's safe and it's 100% sure fact that we can't know what total effect of all these emissions is and where it leads.



cdiac.esd.ornl.gov...


PS. Just few weeks ago there was news report that amount of different politically motivated "scientific" think-tanks with "sensitive to light" financial backings has exploded near EU's decision making places... and like for lawyers ,US is surely real promised land also for those.

Originally posted by E_T
What are those Economists and Medicine Nobel winners doing there if that appeal is somehow supposed to be scientific keep it going and bury head deeper to sand message?

Don't forget all the physicists and chemists.

Originally posted by E_T
PS. Just few weeks ago there was news report that amount of different politically motivated "scientific" think-tanks with "sensitive to light" financial backings has exploded near EU's decision making places... and like for lawyers ,US is surely real promised land also for those.

If these guys were backed up by big corporations, the Heidelberg appeal would be all over the news, because the big corps own the mass media. But it hasn't been.

Here's another anti global warming petition, over 15000 (physicists, geophysicists, climatologists, meteorologists, oceanographers, environmental scientists, chemists, biochemists, biologists etc.) have signed it, there's lots of refrences:
www.sitewave.net...


[edit on 28/8/2005 by SwearBear]