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NEWS: Russians Bet Brits that World Will Cool Over 10 Years

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posted on Aug, 19 2005 @ 03:27 PM
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A group of Russian scientists have made a $10,000 bet that the popular theory of global warming is wrong and that in fact the world will cool within the next decade. This is greatly contrasting other world science groups claiming that the global warming is not natural but due to mankinds industrialization.
 



www.guardian.co.uk
The Russian solar physicists Galina Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev have agreed the wager with a British climate expert, James Annan.

The pair, based in Irkutsk, at the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, believe that global temperatures are driven more by changes in the sun's activity than by the emission of greenhouse gases. They say the Earth warms and cools in response to changes in the number and size of sunspots. Most mainstream scientists dismiss the idea, but as the sun is expected to enter a less active phase over the next few decades the Russian duo are confident they will see a drop in global temperatures.

Dr Annan, who works on the Japanese Earth Simulator supercomputer, in Yokohama, said: "There isn't much money in climate science and I'm still looking for that gold watch at retirement. A pay-off would be a nice top-up to my pension."

To decide who wins the bet, the scientists have agreed to compare the average global surface temperature recorded by a US climate centre between 1998 and 2003, with temperatures they will record between 2012 and 2017.


Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


This is an interesting new wager that has sprung up. Though popular, I agree with the Russians that Global Warming is just a theory and that the world goes through natural cycles of heating and cooling. The data collected for this "Theory" is a very small sample (time wise) and much error can be allowed for in analysing this data.

However, I find it very interesting that people accept this theory which has little to no proof behind it beside themometers, but will throw the theory of evolution out of the classroom because some ancient jewish writer didn't notice that animals adpated and also evolved.




posted on Aug, 19 2005 @ 03:41 PM
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Actually, Russian scientists have the oldest ice core samples to get their data from - 420,000 years according to google.

Global warming theory is hardly just based on a thermometer, but the Russians might know something the rest of the world doesn't...



posted on Aug, 19 2005 @ 04:01 PM
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$10,000 whoa! I'll take some of that action. With the polar ice caps melting at an alarming rate, gulf stream changing, and a small but significant raising of the global temp. Easy money!



posted on Aug, 19 2005 @ 04:26 PM
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I'm with the Russians on this one. I wonder what kind of lines they're giving in Vegas.



posted on Aug, 19 2005 @ 04:29 PM
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Well, in part the Russian scientists are right. Global warming will cause regional cooling in the northern parts of the world when the desalinization of the gulf stream worsens because of more fresh water being pumped into the ocean by global warming. This will stop, or slow down even more the North Atlantic Conveyor belt, and when this happens we can expect cooling for a long period of time. But I think it would take longer than just 10 years. Unless the Russians know something we don't.



posted on Aug, 19 2005 @ 05:06 PM
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Maybe the Russians just have a Blockbuster card, and decided to rent a Dennis Quaid movie.

Throw in a quart or three of vodka, and a group of intellectuals, and whammo, you've got a theory.




But seriously, I'm backing the Russians on this one.



posted on Aug, 19 2005 @ 05:23 PM
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... the world goes through natural cycles ...


Some, even, that are much longer term than the life cycle of civilizations. Man hasn't been here long enough to observe, let alone record, many things.

For example mankind has not been on earth long enough for the completion of a single orbit of the solar system around the milky way*. Wonder what lies on the other side?

*Wikipedia : Solar System



posted on Aug, 19 2005 @ 05:47 PM
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I agree the planet is going to cool over the next ten years, but that does not mean that every where will be cooler, just the average temperature. So you might have some hotter summers in places, but you will also have colder winters.



posted on Aug, 19 2005 @ 07:22 PM
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Or the Russians could just be hedging their bets. Afterall if they are wrong and global warming is increasing as fast as what it appears to be, we might not be around or in communication after 2017 for the Brit to collect


But, looking at the Russian theory, it does make perfect sense. The Sun is the most influential body affecting our planet. The amount of energy thrown around by our Sun is immense. If that were to fluctuate we would see direct results in our temperatures. If the Russians have proof that the Sun's activity has been high for some time and they predict a reduction in activity, it goes without saying that temperatures will follow the Sun's lead.

If the Sun isnt as active then its impossible for temperatures to rise inspite of it.



posted on Aug, 19 2005 @ 09:11 PM
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Well, if we were ONLY considering temperature, it is true that there are effects that are beyond our power that are caused by variations in sun and earth cycles. There is ice core data dating back hundreds of thousands of years that prove this.

However, if you look at the CO_2 cycle trends, there is a clear and disturbing trend that is entirely due to industrialization.

Since the CO_2 and temperature cycles intermingle, it's not yet clear what the total result is.

However, if the current increase in CO_2 emissions continue, and with the industrialization of China and other nations threatening to increase the emissions far more than it is now, I cannot imagine that there will not be an effect.

Whether this effect is percentagewise larger or smaller than the effect caused by the sun is what I suspect is the core debate.



posted on Aug, 19 2005 @ 10:59 PM
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Maybe the Russians are thinking its time for a Nuclear Winter. That would cool things down a bit, don't you think.



posted on Aug, 19 2005 @ 11:13 PM
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Well, space is quite cold of course, so maybe the Russians are banking on the end of the world in 2012. Otherwise I think the Russians will be well aware they are going to lose by the time 2012 even gets here.

Humans are releasing CO2, H2O, and other gasses into the air at an alarming rate which is very likely to hijack the natural cycle and make things much much worse for quite a while.
During my debate on this issue with TheLibra (which Libra managed to beat me in, defending the Russian's side) I uncovered a graph which shows distinct differences between this peak of CO2 and temperature levels and past ones observed in ice cores. This is the first time that it has started to decrease, then risen to a second, higher peak. CO2 concentrations have not been as high as they currently are in hundreds of thousands if not millions of years according to some scientists.

There IS a natural cycle, but humans are kicking it up a notch. It's going to rise higher then fall lower than it has in past cycles. The Russians will have to get very lucky to win this bet (have the perturbed cycle still end in the first half of the timeframe they agreed upon for the bet), and even then they will realize they were wrong when temperatures fall lower than they have ever been observed to and the consequences of human interference become nearly undeniable.

[edit on 19-8-2005 by The Vagabond]



posted on Aug, 19 2005 @ 11:53 PM
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Originally posted by Where2Hide2006
Maybe the Russians are thinking its time for a Nuclear Winter. That would cool things down a bit, don't you think.


lol.. thats a nice one..
..
Or maybe the russians saw too many re-runs of "the day after tomorrow"?


Ice ages occur every 10,000 years or so right??
The key words being "or so"..
Are they talking about an ice age, or a mini ice age, or something to that effect but at much loewr intensity??!

Whatever it is, if they're betting in terms of decades, then they've narrowed the art of predicting its occurence to only "a few years"..Which in itself is absolutely amazing!



posted on Aug, 19 2005 @ 11:56 PM
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Let's just hope that Russia's economy doesn't take too much of a downturn. Scalar war over a 10,000 dollar bet? Just absurd enough to be part of the plot for a new edition of the Fallout RPG series.

If you added quite a few zeros to the end of that wager, it'd be just absurd enough to actually happen too.



posted on Aug, 21 2005 @ 07:38 AM
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Originally posted by The Vagabond
Let's just hope that Russia's economy doesn't take too much of a downturn. Scalar war over a 10,000 dollar bet? Just absurd enough to be part of the plot for a new edition of the Fallout RPG series.

If you added quite a few zeros to the end of that wager, it'd be just absurd enough to actually happen too.


the russian economy doesn't fall out? It has never recovered my friend. The Russian scientists make less than a cab driver now. This is a huge bet for them, they must be pretty confident.



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