posted on Aug, 16 2005 @ 08:54 PM
Haha, made ya look. Don't worry, it's a possibility, but it's off in the future, and we can stop it if we play our cards right. Here's what I'm
If you don't follow the news closely, you may not be aware of some developments and proposals that could have and could further drastically change
the charcter of South America, and bring our rivals into the Western Hemisphere, further eroding the security of "oceanic fortress" which has kept
America safe for two centuries.
Our key problem in South America right now is the growing relationship between Russia, Brazil, Venzuela, and Cuba. Brazil is part of an economic
alliance with Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS), which is strengthening their ties. As Russia gains economic interest in South America,
mainly in regimes like that of Hugo Chavez, which for better or for worse America feels compelled to be hostile towards, they gain an incentive to
have defensive capabilities over here.
So the big question is, what happens if Russia continues to strengthen ties with and sell military equipment to nations in South America, creating a
military threat just across the Gulf of Mexico? While belligerence is not likely, this creates a key strategic barrier to any American offensive in
South Asia or the Pacific with China or governments backed by China. We couldn't support South Korea, because the commitment of forces there would
leave us vulnerable if Russia and allies decided to sieze the moment for aggression against Columbia, Panama, or even Mexico, which would be very
dangerous for America.
The way I see it, a wedge must be driven between Russia and China, and America must seek the best possible (if still uneasy) relations with Russia.
I think the key is India. India holds just as much economic promise for Russia as China, perhaps more. The Chinese can produce more, but the Indians
ca produce better- India is a growing power in technological fields and buys a good amount of Russian hardware. Russia stands to benefit by continuing
a partnership with India, in which India will eventually be able to contribute substantially to Russian military hardware development. Furthermore,
India's geographic location makes them strategically important to Russia should there ever be a Sino-Russian dispute over former Soviet republics
such as Tajikistan. Last but not least, partnership with India offers Russia insurance of their ability to project naval power to the Persian Gulf,
without relying on the Suez Canal.
So how do we make Russia choose between India and China?
1. We ask for India's help in peacekeeping and nation building efforts in East Africa, which we should be spending heavily on, acknowlding India as a
world power and helping them to further their economic interest in natural trading partners which lie just across the Indian ocean (which they fancy
themselves the controllers of). The goal here is to create American/Indian cooperation to make China distrustful of India and India friendly to
2. We create economic deterrents to American companies outsourcing jobs to China, but don't tighten down quite so much on India. Feed a rivalry
3. Perhaps the best idea- we bribe Japan into building the strongest possible economic ties with India, and get try to arrange
American-Japanese-Indian naval exercises and even joint development of naval technology. If India and Japan will allow us to bring them together, it
will limit India's ability to support any prospective Chinese military action direct or indirect against Japan/America, thus creating such a barrier
for Russia as well.
4. (the dirty idea) We frame Indonesia, or terrorist groups operating from Indonesia, for waging a terror campaign in Kashmir, and encourage India to
push for a UN campaign against the terrorists there. When the UN flinches, we promise to support them in a unilateral action. India ends up with a
naval base in the Pacific, encroaching on what China may see as its sphere of influence.
All of the above is MUCH easier said than done, but I do see South America drifting left and aligning with Russia, which would be much less of a
probelm if we can find a way to prevent Russia and China from cooperating militarily, either via India or otherwise.