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Petrodollar Warfare: Dollars, Euros and the Upcoming Iranian Oil Bourse

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posted on Mar, 4 2006 @ 04:56 PM
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The world is all about the paper, the paper that when a government offical puts their name on it is ok to accept even though the money don't really exist, just like a personal check except we cannot go over what we have in the bank. Sure the dollar will fall as all other currency on paper, if Iran really wanted a good oil bourse they would go to gold instead of the Euro because like the dollar the Euro to is just as bad.
Think Germany in the 1920s' when they were printing happy just after the first world war. They had to introduce a new currency or 1948 the Reich Mark and with a stroke of a pen they cancelled their old system and started all over again.
Smile everyone because none of the governments will fall to this those of you who read this will be the ones affected, everyones government has power over the people and all you can do is suffer. Bush will still fly to his ranch in Texas, Putin will still kick back at his sea retreat, Castro will smile at the sun that still shines his day, China, UK, Japan, all of these governments will be just fine while we suffer.
You want to make a difference start a bank that is backed by gold instead of the dollars, hope that your government won't shut you down.
Tomorrow we will wake up to our dollars and bank deposits are worthless.




posted on Mar, 8 2006 @ 09:57 AM
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A humourous, yet very scary rant from Richard Daughty aka The Mogambo Guru (general partner and COO of the Smith Consultant Group)

The Mogambo Guru Caves In Under The Weight Of Public Debt


But on the other side of the coin, foreigners continue to soak up tons and tons of our debt, which they will probably spell "tonnes and tonnes of debt of the world's biggest idiots who think that they can make an economy out of borrowing and spending money for imported consumer items and having their governments borrow more and more money to spend more and more money on more and more people!", and last week the official holdings of these foreigners at the Federal Reserve exploded by another $16 billion. In one week! I don't know if this is a new weekly record or not, and I don't care, because if I did care, then I would have to do actual work to answer the question, but you know how I feel about work, and if you don't, then ask me to do some and see what happens. The only thing that matters is that it is a lot of money, and the humongous sum total of American government they have stashed at the Fed IS a new record, $1.572 trillion!



If I looked it up correctly, in 1995 the banks' reserves were about $60 billion, insuring against $206 billion in loans and leases, and $87 billion in savings. M3 was $4.3 trillion.
Now, in 2006, notice the amazing difference! Today, required reserves are only a measly $41 billion (down almost 33%!) as a cushion against a whopping $5,540 billion in loans and leases (2,700 percent bigger than in 1995) and an astonishing $5,150 billion in savings (5,900 percent bigger)! M3 is now $10.3 trillion.


And this is an article on how it's better to invest in tangible value (gold, silver, oil) than stocks or bonds in the near future.

Investing: Assets That Are Lifeboats in a Shaky Future-- Robert Kiyosaki


As of 2004, Social Security was a $10 trillion off-balance-sheet liability. Medicare is a $64 trillion liability. The Social Security fund will begin to run in the red around 2015. The Medicare fund is already operating in the red, a situation that started in 1992. The combined $74 trillion off-balance sheet IOU to Americans is more money than is available in all the stock and bond markets of the world. This means life or death will be determined by your wallet, not your doctor.


I would advise all ATS members to read these two links and other similar articles and blogs. And to reread the Ron Paul speech given on Feb 15th, and the European world economic crisis report that also came out last month.

Related ATS threads:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

www.abovetopsecret.com...



posted on Mar, 9 2006 @ 07:23 PM
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Here's an opposing view point in regards to Iran's oil bourse. Article concludes with the mention of Norway becoming a Pentagon target of wrath.


Why Iran's oil bourse can't break the buck -Asia Times

A number of writings have recently appeared with the thesis that the announced plans of the Iranian government to institute a Tehran oil bourse, perhaps as early as this month, is the real hidden reason behind the evident march to war on Iran by the Anglo-American powers. The thesis is simply wrong for many reasons, not least that war on Iran has been in planning since the 1990s as an integral part of the United States' Greater Middle East strategy.

The F-16 dollar backing
Since 1979 the US power establishment, from Wall Street to Washington, has maintained the status of the dollar as unchallenged global reserve currency. That role, however, is not a purely economic one. Reserve-currency status is an adjunct of global power, of the US determination to dominate other nations and the global economic process. The United States didn't get reserve-currency status by a democratic vote of world central banks, nor did the British Empire in the 19th century. They fought wars for it.

Until some combination of those Eurasian powers congeal in a cohesive challenge to the unbridled domination of the United States as sole superpower, there will be no euro or yen or even Chinese yuan challenging the role of the dollar. The issue is of enormous importance, as it is vital to understand the true dynamics bringing the world to the brink of possible nuclear catastrophe today.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


Author fails to address the possibility of the US overextending itself, which would lead to currency volatility and instability. Which leads to another unaddressed economic facet: what would a good old fashioned depression do to Uncle Buck's hegemony?

The fact still remains that oil prices will go up , the economy relies on cheap energy to maintain growth, and countries will look for all options to cut costs.


[edit on 9-3-2006 by Regenmacher]



posted on Mar, 10 2006 @ 11:50 AM
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Originally posted by Regenmacher

The thesis is simply wrong for many reasons, not least that war on Iran has been in planning since the 1990s as an integral part of the United States' Greater Middle East strategy.

www.atimes.com...]


- That's a strange conclusion.

I mean, people have been talking about US $ debt and the obvious reliance on it's oil backing since the 1980's and the deficits went nuts back then.

Seeing the writing on the wall (and as you referred to being informed by the experience of others previously) and then formulating the PNAC strategy (itself a warm-over of the old 1950's stuff about Imperial America) some time back hardly excludes the reasoning from the current 'strategy'.



posted on Mar, 12 2006 @ 01:58 PM
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That's a strange piece of writting period.

Mr. Engdahl seems to be confusing cause and effect as well as shooting his own hypothesis in the foot. It looks to me like he is arguing that the "petrodollar" does not exists (he states it several times) but then goes on to explain how it works by reversing cause and effect and basically saying that the mechanism is due to a happy historical coincidence.

His point about it being defended with F-16's directly supports the oil bourse being a casus belli
stating that only another military power could challenge the dollar and that no one would dare because... well just because the US is so strong.


I remember a quote, forget by whom and these may not be te exact words, but it goes something like this: "The Empire never appears as strong and invincible as it does the day before it's fall."

Notice how he also accepts that printing as much fiat currency as needed to keep the game going is the way out? That the FED just "discovered" this after Nixon closed the gold window (an event where the US renegged on it's foreign monetray obligations and has yet to face any consequences for)? He fails to realise that every sovereign who has ever tried that in the history of the world has eventually failed.

Look, I hope people are not expecting that on the morning of the 21st that there will be a stock market crash and the dollar will sudenlly be worthless overnight because of the oil bourse. It won't happen that fast. So all the people waiting for the "I told you so" moment (and I know you are out there
) will have to wait up to I'm guessing a year or two to see how all this plays out. The attack on Iran (notice I didn't say invasion/occupation) will come soon enough or the sanctions will be designed is such a way as to try and neutralise the oil bourse.

Like I said before in this thread, the mere existance of the bourse is enough for Iran to be targeted so that the bourse does not take root and erode confidence in the US dollar eventually leading to financial crisis. Is the bourse the only cause for this attack? Of course not. There are many other factors at play. The bourse is itself both an effect and a cause in a long history of cause and effect in the region, but the timing of events currently making headlines is definitely influenced by it's establishment.

The existance of the bourse will set many interrelated things in motion which are much too complexe to go into here. You could write a thesis on any one of the issues touched by this event.

Besides, Iran is not the endgame for the US it's China.

Because in the lender/borrower relationship the lender is always the master. The US is the world's beyatch to the tune of over $2 billion per day, her citizens just don't realise it yet. The powers that be know it, don't care and are "gettin theirs while the gettin's good". They will be fine. It is you and I that will pay the price for "The Great Game".
.



posted on Mar, 13 2006 @ 10:58 PM
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The Shareef he don’t like it, crashin’ the casbah!


Shoura Members Want Govt to Halt Stock Crash -Arab News

JEDDAH, 14 March 2006 — Saudi stocks plunged to new lows yesterday, sending shockwaves among investors as Shoura Council members urged intervention by the Finance Ministry and the governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) to prevent a market crash.

Muhammad Al-Qunaibet, a Shoura member and deputy chairman of the Committee for Economic and Energy Affairs, asked the council to call Finance Minister Ibrahim Al-Assaf to explain the worsening stock market situation.

“Such a move is essential to allay fears of the public over the unjustifiable stock market crash,” Al-Qunaibet told a weekly meeting of the 150-member Shoura Council. “What is happening now at the stock market is not a correction but a crash,” he added.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.



Petrodollars worthless? Then try our nukebucks backed by ICBMs!


UAE turns back on dollar in foreign reserves shake-up

The United Arab Emirates is planning to switch 10% of its foreign reserves from dollars to euros in the first sign of fall-out from Washington's snub to Dubai Ports World last week.

Sultan bin Nasser Al Suwaidi, the governor of UAE's central bank, said the plan was designed to achieve a better balance in the $19.1bn reserves of the oil-rich Gulf federation, almost entirely held in dollars.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.



Arab central banks move assets out of dollar

Middle Eastern anger over the decision by the US to block a Dubai company from buying five of its ports hit the dollar yesterday as a number of central banks said they were considering switching reserves into euros.

The governor of the UAE central bank, Sultan Nasser al-Suweidi, said the bank was looking to convert 10 per cent of its reserves, which stand at $23bn (£13.5bn), from dollars to euros. "They are contravening their own principles," he said. "Investors are going to take this into consideration [and] will look at investment opportunities through new binoculars."
Syria has switched the state's foreign currency transactions to euros from dollars, the head of the state-owned Commercial Bank of Syria, Duraid Durgham, said.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.



The empire says,"Give us oil or your head on a skillet!"


Iran vows to use its oil as a weapon

TEHRAN -- Iran threatened yesterday to use oil as a weapon if the UN Security Council imposes sanctions over its nuclear program.

Iran is the No. 2 producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and has partial control over the narrow Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. The strait is an essential passage for crude oil from key producers such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq.

Pourmohammadi's statements were the most specific yet -- and the first explicitly targeting oil -- in a series of threats issued by Iranian officials as the Security Council discusses what action to take over Iran's nuclear program. Washington says Iran wants to produce atomic weapons.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.



Pentagon examining chances of Israeli strike against Iran

Last week, former Israeli Chief of Staff Moshe Ya'alon said in Washington that the West does have a military option against Iran and that a joint US-NATO-Israeli air strike against dozens of nuclear facilities in Iran could set back Teheran's nuclear programs for several years.

The Washington Post reported Monday that the Bush administration has made Iran a top priority issue and that the president and his team had several meetings on the issue to discuss Iran's nuclear plans.

The Pentagon discussions, according to the sources, did not lead to any conclusion regarding the plausibility of an Israeli attack against Iran, nor did it recommend any action by the US.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.



If you can't join or pillage them, blow them all up!


The End Of Civilization

I had a mild epiphany the other day: it’s not President Bush who’s living in a fantasy world, it’s most of his critics who are. I’m no apologist for Bush – I neither like nor dislike him. He’s no more significant to me than a fly buzzing around outside my _ So permit me to explain my reasoning.

Acquisition of Resources

Without money or credit, government can only continue to exist through force. The United States government is particularly well endowed in this regard and has demonstrated its willingness to use force to acquire resources, and not as a last resort either.

Iraq’s oil is the first such resource to be acquired by military force. Iran’s oil and natural gas may well be the next. In the long run, the energy-rich regions of central Asia will also attract the hungry gaze of the U.S. Empire. Of course, other powerful, populous, and hungry countries, such as China and India, will also have designs on these energy-rich regions, which will probably result in significant wars. Oil from the Middle East will probably become so valuable that countries will have to provide a military escort for every tanker carrying oil across the ocean.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.



How I learned to stop worrying and love chaos

It is instructive how the bully boys of US punditry whine and cringe before the specter of chaos. In the current Atlantic Monthly, Robert D Kaplan, who 12 years ago wrote of The Coming Anarchy, now offers a panegyric to a US Army brigade in Mosul titled "The coming normalcy?" - better-armored vehicles, intelligence delivery and "drinking a lot of chai" with the locals. The classics scholar and military hobbyist Victor Davis Hanson denounces conservative critics of the Bush administration, insisting that the United States is "close to victory abroad, closer to concession at home". At The Belmont Club, Wretchard pleads, "Iraq is simply where the West must come to grips with The Coming Anarchy because it cannot step around it."
All of them are deep in denial, or, as the case may be, deep in the Tigris. Like or not, the US will get chaos, and cannot do anything to forestall it. My advice to President George W Bush: When chaos is inevitable, learn to enjoy it. Take a weekend at Camp David with a case of Jack Daniels and Dashiell Hammett's Red Harvest (Red harvest in Iraq, January 27, 2004).

A tragedy is unfolding whose final curtain never comes down. Washington must prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, because the Ahmadinejad regime wants an oil empire stretching from the southeast shore of the Caspian Sea to the southwest shore of the Persian Gulf (Why the West will attack Iran, January 24). Reza Pahlavi, son of the late shah, warned of Iran's imperial intentions in a Fox News interview on Saturday. President Mahmud Ahmadinejad cannot abandon Iran's nuclear ambitions any more than Adolf Hitler could have kept the peace with Poland in 1939 and remain in power.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.



[edit on 14-3-2006 by Regenmacher]



posted on Mar, 15 2006 @ 08:21 AM
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Precursors to Wall Street implosion?



Iceland crash looking like a meltdown now. Markets of nations and their affiliates that said they would set up oil bourses are tanking, which would indicate they are bailing out of U.S. assets, taking their loses now, and dumping the dollar.


Investors flee Iceland banks as economy heads towards forecast 'hard landing'

Iceland's banks were pummelled yesterday as the Nordic economy lurched into its third week of crisis, flashing an ominous early-warning signal for markets worldwide.

The krona's crash set off global dominos, hitting New Zealand, South Africa, Hungary, Poland and Turkey. The rumbling thunder of monetary tightening by all the world's big central banks provided the background music.

Their banking empire in Europe includes Denmark's FIH and Norway's Bnbank.


Please visit the link provided for the complete story.



Arab Stock Markets Tumble; Dubai Index Has Biggest Loss Ever

The market in Opec kingpin Saudi Arabia, the largest in the Arab world, dropped sharply for the fourth consecutive day, reflecting what analysts said was a sharp correction across the region.
The value of Gulf bourses dropped on Tuesday to just under one trillion dollars, down some $150 billion from their 2005 value and more than $250 billion below the peak.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.



The Beginning of the End of the Petrodollar: What Connects Iraq to Iran

The power shift to the East

A very different world is emerging. It is perhaps too soon to tell whether the US and the EU will head down toward geopolitical rivalry, but the warning signs are certainly present. The rise of euro and the resulting competition with the American dollar will have geopolitical consequences. In the near future, the US and Europe are likely to engage in more intense competition over trade and finance. A more assertive Europe and a less competitive American economy do make it likely that trade disputes will become more politicised.


Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


[edit on 15-3-2006 by Regenmacher]



posted on Mar, 15 2006 @ 10:04 AM
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Thanks Regenmacher, do keep us up to date on this.


The Arabic stock crashes are something to keep a close eye on. Dubai's stock market has lost 40% in one quater!



posted on Mar, 16 2006 @ 07:31 PM
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so what will be the consiquences once iran switches? will it just be a massive melt down or a slow decrease of the dollar? will a massive collapse require a trigger of nations that drop the dollar? i mean i know something will happen im just not sure of what.



posted on Mar, 17 2006 @ 11:12 AM
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An oil bourse is simply a meeting place (usually on the internet) where those who have oil/gas to sell meet those who have oil/gas to buy.

Like all markets it will take time to establish itself, and trust will need to build up in the systems and buyer/sellers before much movement will be seen on it.

The Iranian oil bourse is also hampered by the fact that there is currently no oil marker in Eurodollars.

The oil marker is the price quoted (usually in barrels for oil), and is based on the previously traded prices. Iraq went some way to provide historical data when it switched its sales to Euros in 2003, but there is still not enough data to confidently sell at a Euro.

This means that for the present time oil will be at the same price whether purchased in Dollars or Euros, as the Euro price will be the dollar price times the conversion rate. This means they will effectively be the same price, just in different currencies.
As most countries still hold large USDollar reserves there is little to gain from switching to Eurodollars for oil/gas purchases.

The result of the Iranian Oil Bourse IS NOT quite the problem the doomsayers make it out to be.

China and Russia have no interest in damaging the US economy or the value of the USDollar, as this will impact the global economy or in turn their own economy.

There is however some danger signs to look for. Iran does prefer to trade oil/gas through private deals, as opposed to open markets, and we may see China entering into contracts which will exclude other countries, as Iran had 15% of the world’s oil and a large portion of its gas the rest of the world may be excluded from these deals.

A bigger danger would be for Brent/Norway Crude to move its oil supplies to a Eurodollar marker (maybe through a Norwegian oil bourse) as this will allow trading inside the Euro Zone and remove the last barrier for large scale switches to oil/gas Eurodollar trades.

The only unknown in this is are the United Arab Emirates (UAE) they do have the power to seriously devalue the USDollar and could, in reaction to say the collapsed US port deals, damage the USDollar by dumping large reserves.

A world recession does benifit the Arab oil producing states, as the would not need to increase production any further. Saudi production is currently flat out, and any further increases could expose the dwindling supplies.
(For further information on why that is a problem see the Peak Oil discussion forum).

[edit on 17-3-2006 by Expositor]

[edit on 17-3-2006 by Expositor]

[edit on 17-3-2006 by Expositor]



posted on Mar, 17 2006 @ 04:36 PM
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yes but could iran be trying to do it purposely? there may be no real big benefit other then to weaken the US. i mean it makes sense, they use their best weapon against a force they cannot beat by physical means.



posted on Mar, 18 2006 @ 06:47 AM
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Launch of Iranian oil trading hits wall
Oil exchange unlikely to begin till at least midyear


Despite repeated reports over the past 18 months or so that the planned bourse would finally open for business on March 20, 2006 -- and go head to head with the New York Mercantile Exchange and the ICE Futures Exchange in London -- the start date has been postponed by at least several months and maybe more than a year.

"In the middle of 2006, we are able to start the bourse," Mohammad Asemipur, special adviser on the project to Iran's Oil Minister, said when reached in Tehran. The plan is to trade petrochemical products first, with a crude oil contract coming last, a rollout that likely will take three years, he said.

"Oh, crikey, it's at a much earlier stage than people would think," said British consultant Chris Cook, who claims credit for coming up with the idea for the exchange in the first place and is a member of the consortium headed by the Tehran Stock Exchange that is charged with bringing the project to life.

"You can rest assured, there will not be a crude oil contract, Gulf-based, in my opinion, within a year -- and that would be really pushing it," Mr. Cook, a former director of ICE's predecessor, the International Petroleum Exchange, said when reached in Scotland.

Read the rest here: www.theglobeandmail.com...


I also remember reading somewhere quoting the chairman of Iran's parliamentary Energy Commission as saying that the oil bourse will be launched in 2-3 months (he promised), and that was back in late february, 06.

2 more months to go, I guess, not too bad.

KEEP IT REAL



posted on Mar, 18 2006 @ 09:29 AM
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I've only read through page two, so forgive me if this has been mentioned:

What if the Scandinavian countries left the Kronor and took up Euros? They are much wealthier. If that were to happen, do you think the Euro would sky rocket? And if so...since Norway has a relatively large yield in oil, what that raise the euro even more? Would Iran's conversion to the Euro even be that big of a change compared to the kronor going euro? What would happen if Japan and China joined in as well?

I'm horrible at economics, just throwin' this out there. If anyone could answer this, I'd be very intrested (and thankful). :-P



posted on Mar, 18 2006 @ 11:29 AM
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Proprog thanks a bunch for that article!


First, this is the Globe and Mail, you can't get more mainstream in Canada and they admit this is not being discussed much in the mainstream.

Second, I've just lost a bunch of respect for this paper because of how they are portraying the issue.

I'm quoting other portions of this before it disappears behind the paywall:


As the nuclear standoff pitting Iran against the West continues, some conspiracy theorists are more focused on another plan that the Middle Eastern nation is pursuing.

But they are jumping the gun if they still figure Iran is within days of launching a new international oil exchange that would sell its own and other Middle Eastern oil producers' black gold in euros rather than U.S. dollars -- and which, the theory goes, could ultimately torpedo the greenback and the U.S. economy.

The electronic exchange is to be located on Kish Island in the Persian Gulf, an Iranian duty- and tax-free zone.

There has been far less talk about the planned bourse in the mainstream media than on the Internet, particularly on websites aimed at gold bugs and other economic conspiracy theorists.

The theory is that all trades through the new bourse would be made in euros, not the U.S. dollar, which for decades has been the world's primary reserve currency, as well as the one in which oil and most other commodities have been priced. As a result, European nations and other countries, especially Middle East oil producers, tired of having to buy billions of now weakening greenbacks to pay for their energy purchases, would no longer have to do so.

This, the conspiracy theorists contend, would knock the stuffing out of the U.S. currency and hasten the decline and fall of the American Empire, all the while allowing Iran to stick it to the Great Satan.

But, the theory continues, Washington will pre-empt all this by using Iran's nuclear ambitions as a pretext for attacking the country.

Kamal Daneshyar, chairman of Iran's Majlis [parliamentary] Energy Commission reportedly told the Iranian Students News Agency in December that the exchange would at first operate in both dollars and euros, but gradually move to the European currency exclusively. He was also quoted as saying that this would enable Iran to get even with the U.S. for the economic damages it has inflicted on the Islamic republic.

Dr. Asemipur, meanwhile, was noncommittal on the currency question, saying market participants, not the Iranian government, would make the decision. He also denied the planned bourse could harm the U.S. economy.

Mr. Cook dismissed the idea that Iran's goal is to use the bourse to sabotage the greenback. "I have a technical term for that," he said. "Bollocks!"

As for trading oil in euros, he said the Iranians likely would find it very difficult, at least in the next several years. "Basically, there aren't enough euros in circulation, and nor are there likely to be," he said.

Mr. Cook cited a recent article on Hong Kong-based Asia Times Online by William Engdahl, who specializes in the geopolitics of oil.

"For the euro to begin to challenge the reserve role of the U.S. dollar, a virtual revolution in policy would have to take place in Euroland," Mr. Engdahl wrote. "First the European Central Bank . . . would have to surrender power to elected legislators. It would then have to turn on the printing presses and print euros like there was no tomorrow."

A full challenge to the U.S. dollar as the world central bank reserve currency, Mr. Engdahl added later, would entail a "de facto declaration of war on the 'full-spectrum dominance' of the United States today," and that is something no country or group of countries is yet willing to launch.


Is it me or is the Globe and Mail making fun of us?


Forget what the "conspiray theorist contend" does it make any sense? Are all economic commentators with this viewpoint now suddenly tin-foil-hat-wearing nutjobs?

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand the principles discussed in this thread. We have Cook and Engdahl (again and both discussed above) trying to dismiss any fears that a Euro based bourse would do any damage. Engdahl even does this while at the same time admitting that the petrodollar is part of "full spectrum dominance" for the US! So in essence a Euro based bourse is a challenge even if it's not a "full challenge". Does this guy understand irony or hypocrisy?


As for the point about the ECB needing to print Euros, they, just like the US FED have been cranking out the money supply! Not enough Euros in circulation? They (like the US) can print them to their heart's content!

I don't know why the delay on the part of the Iranians (there's been so many meetings and discussion who's to say what goes on behind the scenes we never hear about) but just because there is a delay does not mean that the "conspiracy theory"
is flawed.

If and when the oil bourse comes into being it will be a challenge to dollar hegemony no matter what these paid "experts" say. Oh... and why is it that these particular two are getting so much mainstream press coverage? Something to think about...
.



posted on Mar, 18 2006 @ 01:13 PM
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Gulf bourse scare signals new political realities -Reuters
"This is the beginning of what could be very serious. The share boom has attracted a lot of people who have made themselves wealthy or poor as a result of speculation," said London-based Saudi social anthropologist Madawi al-Rasheed.

"When there is a decline, they call for the government to intervene, although it is supposed to be a free market," she said. "Will this 'tafra' really affect people so that they start thinking about serious political reform and start to demand it? I think we'll see this happening in Saudi Arabia."

"The Saudi market is mainly driven by retail investors rather than institutional. It's a political timebomb that can explode at any time. That's why they introduced the measures."

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.



Is $2.7b a market parachute? -Bahrain Tribune
As the Saudi market slumped almost 5 per cent in early trading yesterday and GCC bourse continued to head for the south pole the region's largest economy announced that it was now prepared to consider allowing foreign residents to throw their money at the stock exchange.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.



Greenback hit seven-week euro low, two-week yen low -MarketWatch
Oil Trades Near Two-Week High After U.S. Starts Attack in Iraq -Bloomberg

Precious metals and oil markets are not responding to any news about Iran tension easing and/or oil bourse being put off. Pro-US Arab nations are damn near in full panic mode and the Federal Reserve's M3 reporting is still going offline on March 23rd.

So we might presume Iran is now going to play wait and see,
considering the Wall Street/EU house of cards could fall on its own.


USA-Dollar-Iran / Confirmation of Global Systemic Crisis end of March 2006
March 17th, 2006

… currencies of emerging countries are really the first ones to be affected by the unfolding crisis…
During the week of February 20, 2006, Iceland’s Krona was downgraded by a credit rating agency calling the country’s credit deficit unsustainable. The National currency instantly plummeted 10%, causing emerging market currencies such as the Brazilian, South African, Mexican and Indonesian currencies[12], to decline due to the speculative positions taken by operators acting on those markets. During the week of March 6, 2006, it was the turn of Central and Eastern European currencies[13] to plummet as a result of excessive deficits and of the implementation of new policies (increased interest rates and/or removal of liquidities) by the European and Japanese central banks. Finally, since March 14th 2006, Arabic stock markets are crashing down[14], including of course in Saudi Arabia and the Emirates (with a loss of already more than 15% and local experts predicting final losses up to 50% or 60%).

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


Sure is a lot of economic shucking and jiving if nothing big is coming up.

Staying ahead of the game?
Commodities Bull Portfolio Design

[edit on 18-3-2006 by Regenmacher]



posted on Mar, 18 2006 @ 09:19 PM
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The tinfoil hats are getting cookier.

1) As has been repeated many times, the Iranian oil bourse will not have a fly's genitalia impact on global economy.

Trading oil in dollars versus euros is entirely equivalent and can be arranged with a euro/dollar forward.

2) note that in technical finance jargon, "eurodollars" are not the european single currency. "eurodollars" are deposits, denominated, held and paying interest in US Dollars, in non-US Banks. Originally this was European but now extends further.

3) The Saudi stock market declined significantly, yes. But it it was after an enormous 600%+ bull market previously due to huge profits from oil as well as large scale bubble-speculation. Perhaps it was time for a decline.

4) All those things happening around the world in currencies? Answer is simple: US Federal reserve has been raising interest rates and recently appears to be raising further than previously assumed, and so is the European Central bank. Consequence: money comes out of emerging markets back to dollars and euros to take advantage of higher rates. This is the classic pattern.

Guess what: despite the doom and gloom US dollar has stayed pretty strong since about March 2005. This is because interest rates are going up.

Interest rates rule global currency markets far more than any other factor.



posted on Mar, 18 2006 @ 09:38 PM
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Hi guys,

36 Trillion Dollars of debt - not too good!

Middle East conflict - money sapping!

Global Domination? - Impossible!!

George Houdini act? - Highly likely!

US Dominance - Priceless!!!!


J



posted on Mar, 19 2006 @ 02:39 PM
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Graphic inspired by mbkennel!

Here's your prize, so start studying:
ZNet: Global Economics Crisis



posted on Mar, 20 2006 @ 09:25 AM
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We Were Warned - Tomorrow's Oil Crisis CNN Special

Here's a report from the Council of Foreign Relations that emphasizes our precarious position.


Getting Serious about the Twin Deficits

Twenty years ago, the United States was the world’s largest creditor nation, unsurpassed in its ownership of assets outside of its borders, even after deducting what foreigners owned inside its borders. Yet over the past two decades, America has been transformed into the world’s largest debtor nation.

“A striking cautionary note regarding America ’s current path is provided by Britain ’s loss of military and political primacy in the twentieth century; that development followed a shift from creditor to debtor status. Similarly, a prolonged decline in the dollar’s value and increasing indebtedness will erode America ’s dominance in political and security spheres. These trends threaten the dollar’s role as the global currency that facilitates international trade and finance, something the United States has gained immeasurably from over the years. A weaker dollar also reduces American leverage in international financial institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF). Finally, a diminished U.S. currency means that each dollar’s worth of military and development assistance has less impact at precisely the time when the nation faces the greatest challenges. Those threats we ignore at our own peril.”


Here's an interview with Brussee with several audio formats available at the link,
so have a listen while you surf




The Second Great Depression: Starting 2007, Ending 2020
Warren Brussee, Author

The Second Great Depression is a frightening book. It shows how massive consumer debt will trigger the next depression, starting about the year 2007. Most of the logic used to support this premise is based on the government's own published data.

With interest rates increasing, savings rates near zero, and debt at its maximum; many people will be pushed over their debt limit, having homes foreclosed by the banks or going into bankruptcy. Others will heed the warnings and reduce spending, causing a dramatic slowing of the economy.

In this depression, the United States will be brought to its knees. But not unlike the mythical bird Phoenix that dies in flames and is then reborn out of its own ashes, the United States will also be reborn. However, it will be a poorer and less arrogant country that emerges from its own ashes.


This March 19th story says Iran's oil bourse still set to go:


The Attack on the U.S. Dollar and Energy Needs -The Conservative Voice

It’s bad enough that the Middle East has us over a barrel of oil thanks to our continued dependency on access to its huge reservoirs of crude, but largely unknown to most Americans, the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) and the Islamic Development Bank have a long-term goal of replacing the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency for world trade.

In March the Iranians will open an Iran Oil Bourse that will trade oil and products in the Euro, not the dollar. They will not be alone in pegging their nation’s currency to the Euro. Syria already does and Venezuela, another major oil producer, has announced plans to do so as well.

This is extremely bad news for the United States and for the West in general. While Americans focus on the shooting war in Iraq, we are in an even more serious economic war with an axis that spreads from South America to the Middle East. Bear in mind that many South American nations have been electing Socialist governments and that some Middle Eastern nations have flirted with socialism for decades. The Baathist Party in Saddam’s Iraq is an example of this.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


This author says petrodollar fueling collapses in Arab markets. Guess that's what happens when you start flooding the market with helicopter money, ehh Bernanke?


Carry trade liquidation contagion: Petrodollar fuelled Arab stock markets plunge


Stock markets in Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Kuwait and other Arab countries plunged in unison this week as investors hit the exits simultaneously. US investors are barely aware that these markets market even exist let alone bothered by this panic. However a look at a chart of the Saudi Arabian Tadawul index will make them envious for the kinds of returns these markets have delivered for their investors. On average markets in the Middle East have appreciated by 500% over the last 3 years. At its peak, the aforementioned Tadawul index had appreciated by almost 800% during the same period. These outsized returns and a wholly unscientific survey of the fundamentals (40 Price/Earnings, 20X Price/Sales and 10X Price/Book ratios) of some Arab stocks on Gulfbase.com suggests that these markets could see additional convulsions before disillusion and despair bring about a wrenching bottom.

These days its global markets that attract words like zenith as many routinely mark new all time high levels, the way the US markets did in 1990s. Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Turkey, India and South African are just a few of the markets that have hit all-time new highs. However, these bull markets have been running at full pace for three years. Is the panic in Arab markets a harbinger of what is to come for other high flyers? More importantly for US investors, are we about to revert to another period of US market primacy?

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


Millions of Britons struggle to pay sizzling fuel bills -AFP

Market is currently in 100% bull mode and a lot of it is automatic program trading. Beware the escalation in consumer debt as volume dries up, since there's still no free lunch.

The old saying goes when the investment hype convinces the last bears that it's time to go long, that's when the market corrects to the downside.

Got gas? Mogambo suggests some Mexican food.


Commodities and A Crunchy Taco 03/20/2006



posted on Mar, 20 2006 @ 10:41 AM
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Originally posted by mbkennel

Trading oil in dollars versus euros is entirely equivalent and can be arranged with a euro/dollar forward.



Actually, it costs money to covert, and it even costs money (and assumes risk) to arrange a forward, which is why many oil-importing nations which held dollars will find less reason to hold onto them. Your point about reserve rates is well taken, but you shouldn't completely discount the importance of keeping dollar reserves for dollar purchases, or the effect increased Euro activity would have on the dollar even, and particularly, if that activity is preceded by dollar/Euro conversion.

Speaking generally, I am curious why M3 figures are no longer being reported by the federal reserve as of March, for the first time since the 50's.

[edit on 20-3-2006 by koji_K]





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